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Does the ISM Services Index Really Reflect the Real World?

Mish Talk

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 Huge PMI Divergences If you want to believe the economy is rip roaring, then you believe ISM. percent, 2.4

Economy 190
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Market Commentary: Things You Don’t See in a Recession

Carson Wealth

It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. To us, this is the market’s way of saying the economy will continue to see solid growth next year. Stocks tend to lead the economy, and several major indexes are near new highs, which is a good signal for the economy.

Marketing 143
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Market Commentary: Risks Increase, But Don’t Overreact to the Turbulence

Carson Wealth

Economic data last week showed the economy slowing more than expected, adding to worries about a potential recession. Monthly nonfarm payrolls came in weak, adding to the worries about the overall strength of the economy. Lower rates could provide a jump to the economy on both fronts. Source: St.

Marketing 141
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Market Commentary: Slow Start For Stocks Despite Solid Job Gains

Carson Wealth

A “Goldilocks” December jobs report highlights sustained momentum for the economy as it continues its path to normalization. So, although last year was quite the run, we need to remember just how bad 2022 was. That is the longest stretch since the late 1960s, which indicates the economy is in a healthy place. million jobs.

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Market Commentary: The Summer Rally Continues Amid Strong Job Gains

Carson Wealth

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. What Matters for the Economy: Consumption (and Incomes) Consumption runs on incomes, and the picture there is positive.

Marketing 143
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Market Commentary: Good News Is Good News

Carson Wealth

In 2022, positive economic data typically led to a sell-off in the stock market, and weak data often led to a rally. Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates.

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Market Commentary: 7 Reasons the Bull Market Is Alive and Well

Carson Wealth

While some cracks may be forming, the economy remains on firm footing. We’ve been overweight equities since December 2022 and remain there today, as we expect to see stocks move to new highs this summer and the bull market to continue. Admittedly, it can be hard to get a full picture of the economy as the data rolls in week after week.