Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 20, 2023

ritholtz.com) India's stock market held up well in 2022. news.crunchbase.com) Crypto companies, like FTX, invested in a bunch of crypto startups. theinformation.com) The bloom is off the 'passion economy' rose? ft.com) Economy Existing home sales plunged in December. Those stakes are set to change hands.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2023

Note: The first two graphs - Investment Contributions and Residential Investment as a percent of GDP - are useful in predicting Fed induced recessions. Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 annualized rate in Q4.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 10, 2022

US Economy Facing Growth Recession. ?. Source: Bloomberg , August 9th, 2022. Bloomberg, August 8, 2022. August 9, 2022). The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022). Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022). Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022). Too Many Bears (May 3, 2022). Politics & Investing.

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Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

marketwatch.com) Strategy Copycat investing is blind alley. billion in 2022 in the U.S.` nytimes.com) Economy Disinflation isn't moving in a straight line. Markets European natural gas prices are back down to Q4 2021 levels. ft.com) Zero day options are growing in popularity.

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Investing Investments Financial Advising Media 245

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

economy continues to be in a good place. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs in 2022. This makes 2022 the second-best year for job growth in US history, only behind the 6.7 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs?

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? October 2, 2017) Deficit Chicken Hawks vs Ronald Reagan (July 13, 2010) Politics & Investing The post Catastrophizing Debt appeared first on The Big Picture.

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? The economy, corporate revenues, earnings, and consumer spending are to some degree path dependent.

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Calculated Risk

MARCH 22, 2023

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The combination of an unsettled economy and high interest rates is causing investors and property owners to take a closer look at their plans for construction projects,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

However, they are significant — and rising rates this year have been a headwind for both equities and the economy. But the -23% of the SPX may not be the biggest story of 2022: The single most important change has been the end of the bond bull market that dates back to 1981. 1 and 2 are good, I suspect 3 is problematic.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

 At the Money: Stock Picking vs. Value Investing with Jeremy Schwartz, Wisdom Tree. Should value investing be part of that strategy? TRANSCRIPT: Jeremy Schwartz Value Investing Barry Ritholtz : How much you pay for your stocks has a giant impact on how well they perform. What Is value investing?

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Investing Investments Valuation Portfolio 296

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

The recession callers were back in the first half of 2022, and some like ARK's Cathie Wood and Home Depot's Ken Langone claimed the US was already in a recession. We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession).

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

But my job is not to give the Fed policy advice, it is instead to provide clients with insight and investment advice. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! Parts of the economy suffer – notably residential real estate, new job creation, and consumer spending.

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

theirrelevantinvestor.com) Some investments are an IQ test. nytimes.com) How China plans to boost the economy. sherwood.news) Economy Lower interest rates do not guarantee a soft landing. wsj.com) Do you remember the 'recession' of 2022? Markets Most stocks are working right now. just hit $10 trillion.

Financial Advising 278

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Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

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Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

One of my favorite responsibilities as chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management is the quarterly conference call I do for our clients. I like to finish with a thought-provoking, often “investing-adjacent” idea they might not have previously considered. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2022

Say what you will about the advantages of passive investing, but Eric argues that if a shop like Vanguard had introduced only low-cost active investing (and never focused on passive), it would have grown to become a trillion-dollar colossus regardless. Passive investing is: Marxist. Lobotomized investing. Reached a mania.

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Taxes Portfolio Management Investing 334

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

Strategy The normalization of interest rates is going to change how people invest. behaviouralinvestment.com) Why wealthy investor don't invest aggressively enough. arstechnica.com) Venture capital Just how deep in the hole is Masayoshi Son on his Vision Fund 'investments'? abnormalreturns.com) Don't borrow money to invest.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Economics 245

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

The recession callers were back in the first half of 2022, and some like ARK's Cathie Wood and Home Depot's Ken Langone claimed the US was already in a recession. One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). Residential investment has also peaked.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! 2022 can be understood as part of that process. through January 4, 2022. Welcome to 2023! It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes, and 9.76

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Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

I am not a fan of that framing; my preference is to note that different investors in equity and fixed income have very different risk tolerances stocks, time horizons, and investment goals. August 15, 2022). Shift Your Perspective (July 22, 2022). The Uncertainty Monster (July 21, 2022). James Mackintosh.

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Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 321

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

awealthofcommonsense.com) Would you invest in Norway's sovereign wealth fund if you could? theatlantic.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims jumped last week. bonddad.blogspot.com) Real home prices are a touch below the 2022 peak. Markets The chances of you successfully timing the market based on macro stuff is slim.

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Startup Media Economy Portfolio 147

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Markets Just how bad was the 2022-23 bond drawdown? ft.com) Why you should look at returns from 2022-23 as a whole. wapo.st) Finance Links to all the Wall Street 2024 investment outlooks. morningstar.com) Economy November PCE came in at 3.2% priceactionlab.com) Streaming Lionsgate ($LGF.A) down from 5.6% at the peak.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 278

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 22, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) How time horizon affects the odds of investing in equities. morningstar.com) How to avoid investment disasters. thestreet.com) Ark Invest's ETFs have built up plenty of tax losses to carry forward. arstechnica.com) Economy Another chart crime debunked.

Financial Advising 274

Financial Advising Media Economy Taxes 274

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. The GDP report showed final private domestic demand — consumer spending and fixed investment — was flat in 2Q after a 3.0% Previously : GDP = -0.9% (July 28, 2022).

Economics 321

Economics Banking Retail Economy 321

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 15, 2024

slate.com) Global Rally aside, are Chinese stocks really investable? wsj.com) Economy The wealth effect helped keep us out of recession in 2022. (fastcompany.com) AI is coming to 'optimize' work schedules. economist.com) Governments are finding it difficult to boost birth rates.

Financial Advising 283

Financial Advising Retail Media Government 283

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 3, 2023

Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2022. capitalspectator.com) 2022 was the third worst year for the 60/40 portfolio. awealthofcommonsense.com) The Dow lead the major indices in 2022. investment in semiconductor manufacturing can only do so much. in 2022 vs. 2021. axios.com) U.S.

Startup 242

Startup Valuation Financial Advising Distribution 242

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 21, 2024

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. This now marks the lengthiest period of declining billings since 2010 , although it is reassuring that the pace of this decline is less rapid and the broader economy showed improvement in January,” said Kermit Baker, PhD, AIA Chief Economist.

Economy 309

Economy Investing Investments Clients 309

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 30, 2022

A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. The S&P acts as a snapshot that illuminates which companies and industries are the largest in the economy at any given time. Source: QAD Blog.

Economy 312

Economy Management Investing Investments 312

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024? 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs added in 2022, and 7.3 Or will the economy lose jobs? in November 2022.

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Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

But instead of cracking, some data point to an economy that’s thriving. ( New York Times ) see also Is the economy kind of good now? Businessweek ) • This Rare Asteroid May Be Worth 70,000 Times the Global Economy. Businessweek ) • This Rare Asteroid May Be Worth 70,000 Times the Global Economy. Vox ) • U.S.

Economy 283

Economy Management Investments Investing 283

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 29, 2022

Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close. barrons.com) 2022 was a disaster for Big Tech. wsj.com) Why American Equity Investment Life ($AEL) is so sought after. wsj.com) Economy Continuing unemployment claims continue to trend higher. awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List.

Financial Advising 275

Financial Advising Startup Food Media 275

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 10, 2023

tker.co) Strategy Investing off headlines is a fool's errand. theirrelevantinvestor.com) Don't try to invest like Yale, unless you have Yale-like resources. netinterest.co) Silicon Valley Bank didn't have a Chief Risk Officer for most of 2022. ft.com) The Fed's actions are finally filtering through the economy.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Banking Economy Media 245

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.'

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. A Very Tough Year : The S&P 500 has declined more than 1% in one out of four days so far in 2022.

Engineering 306

Engineering Economy Manufacturing Retirement 306

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 11, 2023

economist.com) Alameda Research made a big investment in miner Genesis Digital Assets soon before the FTX unwind. wsj.com) BITO Bitcoin tanked in 2022 but Bitcoin futures ETPs held in there. economist.com) Belgium and the Netherlands intercepted a record-breaking 160 metric tonnes of cocaine in 2022.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Startup Economy Media 244