Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Here is a graph from Realtor.com showing active inventory through November 2022. This was correct.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of August 21st.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 23rd.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 30th.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of August 28th.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of November 13th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 15th.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 25th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 4th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 8th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of August 14th.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of July 24th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of November 27th.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 18th.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. This is atypical.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs in 2022. This makes 2022 the second-best year for job growth in US history, only behind the 6.7 Or will the economy lose jobs? Job losses in construction haven't started yet because a record number of housing units are under construction. million jobs added in 2021.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 11th.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of November 20th.

Economy 217

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 217

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

This week, we speak with Kyla Scanlon , creator, host of YouTube’s,“Let’s Appreciate” podcast , writer of daily short-form videos about economy + markets. Her new book “ In This Economy?: Cutter has put-up impressive numbers since its 2022 launch, and now manages more than $500 million in institutional assets.

Healthcare 294

Healthcare Economy Numbers Assets 294

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? The economy, corporate revenues, earnings, and consumer spending are to some degree path dependent.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating. Economic Policy Institute, April 21, 2022). The truth about inflation (Popular Information, November 7, 2022).

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 2nd.

Economy 189

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 189

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. Previously : The Tide of Price over Volume (April 21, 2023) Signs of Softening (July 29, 2022) Are We in a Recession? (No)

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

ft.com) The 2022 fundraising scene is completely different than the prior 11 years. cbsnews.com) Economy Is crude oil losing its salience as an economic indicator? awealthofcommonsense.com) What falling tax withholding numbers say about the state of the economy. wapo.st) How long will consumer spending hold up?

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Economics 245

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. See also : Millions of Americans Regret the Great Resignation ( Bloomberg , July 12, 2022). Previously : Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022). Wages in America.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.'

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. There is not a lot the Fed can do to increase the number of workers, create more single-family homes, end the Russian war in Ukraine, produce more semiconductors, or untangle snarled supply chains.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

The recession callers were back in the first half of 2022, and some like ARK's Cathie Wood and Home Depot's Ken Langone claimed the US was already in a recession. We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession).

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

tker.co) A link to the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. annual shareholder report.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

The recession callers were back in the first half of 2022, and some like ARK's Cathie Wood and Home Depot's Ken Langone claimed the US was already in a recession. See my post in 2019: Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve ) For the economy, what I focus on is single family starts and new home sales. My answer is: Maybe.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. Their PTSD is palpable.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. A Very Tough Year : The S&P 500 has declined more than 1% in one out of four days so far in 2022.

Engineering 306

Engineering Economy Manufacturing Retirement 306

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flat from March through June 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data. employment for the bulk of 2022.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

You’ll remember as I came into the Fed, I started the very beginning of, of 2023 in December of 2022. The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. I think number one. Yeah, Barry, thanks for having me on. Look, I called the Golden Path.

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

The Big Picture

MAY 8, 2023

Here is a quick mental exercise to allow you to operate without your hindsight bias getting in the way: At the end of 2022, an all-knowing market deity visits to inform you that almost halfway through the year, 1) Rates will be appreciably higher; 2) Three of the biggest bank failures in U.S. Consider : – Unemployment at 3.4%

Banking 321

Banking Media Marketing Marketing 321