Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in November. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls.

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.'

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. There is not a lot the Fed can do to increase the number of workers, create more single-family homes, end the Russian war in Ukraine, produce more semiconductors, or untangle snarled supply chains.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

tker.co) A link to the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. annual shareholder report.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

Earliler the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2022 by age, and I've updated the table from the previous post. The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030. population by age in July 2022 according to the Census Bureau.

Economy 145

Economy Numbers 145

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. Their PTSD is palpable.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of September 11th.

Economy 145

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 145

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. A Very Tough Year : The S&P 500 has declined more than 1% in one out of four days so far in 2022.

Engineering 306

Engineering Economy Manufacturing Retirement 306

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flat from March through June 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data. employment for the bulk of 2022.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

MAY 8, 2023

Here is a quick mental exercise to allow you to operate without your hindsight bias getting in the way: At the end of 2022, an all-knowing market deity visits to inform you that almost halfway through the year, 1) Rates will be appreciably higher; 2) Three of the biggest bank failures in U.S. Consider : – Unemployment at 3.4%

Banking 321

Banking Media Marketing Marketing 321

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that. I have to go back to 2022 when the Fed began their rate hiking cycle. And what you saw in 2021 and 2022 is transitory inflation that got us to 9 percent on CPI.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of August 7th.

Economy 140

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 140

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of July 31st.

Economy 144

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 144

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

I am not sure if they quite recognize the potential damage they are doing to the economy. Lack of Single Family Homes : We’ve discussed this before most notably in 2021, but home builders have wildly underbuilt the number of houses relative to population growth following the financial crisis (GFC).

Food 317

Food Economy Numbers Sales 317

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of September 4th.

Economy 140

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 140

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of November 6th.

Economy 137

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 137

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of September 25th.

Economy 138

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 138

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 23, 2023

morningstar.com) It's easy to forget how bad 2022 was for retirement account investors. wapo.st) Given bad affordability numbers its hard to see house prices bottoming soon. theatlantic.com) Economy Still no sign of a sustained uptick in weekly initial unemployment claims. pragcap.com) The U.S. housing market has lost $2.3

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Media Retirement Economy 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 18, 2022

pionline.com) The number of different ETF issuers in the U.S. etf.com) Books The five best economic history books of 2022 including "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century". fivebooks.com) The best fiction of 2022 including "Wolf Den" by Elodie Harper. has more than doubled in the past five years.

Financial Advising 219

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 219

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

Between January 2022 and June 2024, the state created 523,700 private sector jobs — not 5,400 as claimed. MSM uncritically repeated the false number. Between January 2022 and June 2024, total California jobs grew by about 156,000, with government jobs accounting for 96.5 I spend far too much time debunking economic b t.

Government 356

Government Media Economics Food 356

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of August 21st.

Economy 119

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 119

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Here is a graph from Realtor.com showing active inventory through November 2022. This was correct.

Economics 114

Economics Sales Economy Banking 114

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

Did the palpable panic in June/October 2022 lead to ill-advised sell(s)? are fast-growing, highly profitable key players in the modern economy. Private Credit : An unnamed person from the hedge fund industry pointed out that around the June 2022 lows, there were big redemptions from allocators who shifted capital away from hedge funds.

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Carson Wealth

MAY 20, 2024

April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. Despite the path of the economy, inflation, the election, geopolitics, or the Fed’s actions, what matters at the end of the day is what markets do. It peaked at 9% year over year in August 2022 but is now running at 3.4%.

Numbers 97

Numbers Marketing Marketing Insurance 97

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 23rd.

Economy 106

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 106

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 30th.

Economy 105

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 105

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of August 28th.

Economy 105

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 105

MarketWatch

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

economy is showing strength. Biden said in a statement at the White House: "I'm happy to report that the state of our union, and the state of our economy, is strong." reported that the number of new jobs created in January rose by 517,000, marking the biggest gain in six months. Biden spoke after the U.S.

Economy 98

Economy Government Numbers Marketing 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of November 13th.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 15th.

Economy 97

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 97

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 25th.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 4th.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 8th.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of August 14th.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98