The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. This quarter, it was Sentiment. 2 Regardless, something is amiss.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022. ft.com) The 60/40 portfolio had a historically bad year. finance.yahoo.com) Apple ($AAPL) lost $846 billion in market cap in 2022. marketwatch.com) 2022 was a big year for ETFs, except for a spot Bitcoin ETF. wsj.com) Matt Levine, "What happened at FTX?

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Medical Economics Media 278

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 3, 2023

Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2022. capitalspectator.com) 2022 was the third worst year for the 60/40 portfolio. awealthofcommonsense.com) The Dow lead the major indices in 2022. in 2022 vs. 2021. nytimes.com) The UK has 'deconverged' from the rest of the global economy.

Startup 242

Startup Valuation Financial Advising Distribution 242

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 11, 2023

Markets How does the 60/40 portfolio perform after big down years? wsj.com) BITO Bitcoin tanked in 2022 but Bitcoin futures ETPs held in there. economist.com) Belgium and the Netherlands intercepted a record-breaking 160 metric tonnes of cocaine in 2022. cnn.com) Economy Some additional signs that the economy is rolling over.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Startup Economy Media 244

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 20, 2023

ritholtz.com) India's stock market held up well in 2022. wsj.com) Don't let your portfolio be driven by strategist forecasts. theinformation.com) The bloom is off the 'passion economy' rose? ft.com) Economy Existing home sales plunged in December. Markets What a 'breakaway momentum thrust' means for investors.

Investments 246

Investments Investing Startup Financial Advising 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. 2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Markets Four things that mattered for portfolios in 2022. morningstar.com) Gasoline prices are ending 2022 below where they were a year ago. theinformation.com) Books 16 notable finance books from 2022 including "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future" by Sebastian Mallaby. John Mandel.

Financial Advising 225

Financial Advising Media Economy Portfolio 225

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 27, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) 2022 shows that every portfolio strategy comes under pressure. wsj.com) Intel ($INTC) had a tough 2022 and 2023 isn't looking better. thebasispoint.com) Housing The Fed's policies are hitting the economy primarily through the housing channel.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Distribution Valuation Media 245

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 12, 2022

allstarcharts.com) The all-weather portfolio has not fared well in 2022. theinformation.com) Economy Producer price increases are easing. Strategy Sometimes your best trade is a loss. blog.validea.com) Companies Apple ($AAPL) is shifting more production out of China.

Financial Advising 236

Financial Advising Startup Media Economy 236

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

Even as inflation peaked in June of 2022 and fell from 9% to 3%, people remained angry. Oh, and the economy would have hurtled into the worst depression since the Great Depression of 1929. Recall that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now in June 2020 showed the economy had been cut in half, down -52.8%.

Government 306

Government Medicine Economy Healthcare 306

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. 2022 Inflation Peak : Inflation is structurally out of control and going to remain at high levels for perhaps even years to come. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

The Big Picture

AUGUST 26, 2022

An overlooked indicator shows the US economy actually grew in the first half of 2022 : Gross domestic income (GDI) showed the economy expanded during the first half of the year. Bloomberg ) see also The NY Fed vs Larry Summers : Some pundits were right on high inflation but for the wrong reasons. Financial Times ). •

Economy 295

Economy Government Accounting Portfolio 295

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2023

mattstoller.substack.com) Fund management Tiger Global wrote down the value of its venture portfolio by 33% in 2022. institutionalinvestor.com) Economy Has the banking crisis increased the odds of a recession? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) The Fed is a bad bank regulator.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Startup Banking Manufacturing 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 9, 2022

The biz The top podcasts of 2022, per Apple Podcasts. podcasts.apple.com) Economy Ezra Klein talks economic trends with Mohamed El-Erian. infiniteloopspodcast.com) Frederick Geischen talks lifelong learning with Alix Pasquet III, Managing Partner and portfolio manager at hedge fund Prime Macaya.

Portfolio Management 244

Portfolio Management Economics Economy Management 244

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Austin Goolsbee. You’ll remember as I came into the Fed, I started the very beginning of, of 2023 in December of 2022. Look, this, this is a t tangled, uh, this is a tangled web, uh, that is critically important to, to the economy.

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Integrity Financial Planning

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This strategy tells you to put 60% of your portfolio in equities and 40% in bonds or other fixed-income offerings. However, the 2022 economy has brought the classic 60/40 allocation strategy into question as both the stock and bond markets dip at the same time. In a 60/40 allocation, this negatively affects the whole portfolio.

Portfolio 91

Portfolio Retirement Accounting Economy 91

James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

We may not be flying into a storm, but there’s been plenty of turbulence the first part of 2022. How businesses, households, and central banks steer through the rough air will set the tone for markets over the second half of 2022. The sources of turbulence are clear. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Investment Advisor 98

Investment Advisor Banking License Insurance 98

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 13, 2024

Bonds Bonds are back as portfolio balance. wsj.com) Economy Companies are not talking recession. apolloacademy.com) Small business optimism is at its highest level since 2022. morningstar.com) Bonds have had a good run of late. ft.com) Markets Exchange stocks are outperforming. reuters.com) PPI continues heading lower.

Financial Advising 162

Financial Advising Media Assets Management 162

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 16, 2022

alphaarchitect.com) The all-weather portfolio has not fared well in 2022. tker.co) Do we need to throw the economy into recession to tame inflation? Top clicks this week How millionaires invest. blog.validea.com) Jason Zweig, "Try to watch a tree growing, and you see nothing; yet it is growing all the same.

Retail 162

Retail Economy Portfolio Investments 162

Carson Wealth

MARCH 17, 2025

In last weeks commentary, we took a look at tariff policy, the market uncertainty it was creating, and what was going on in the broader economy. But whether were looking at the current state of the economy or market history, our focus is always on facts over feelings. These guidelines dont mean we ignore context. What Should You Do?

Marketing 79

Marketing Marketing Economy Portfolio 79

The Big Picture

AUGUST 21, 2023

New York Times ) • UBS: An introduction to Private Credit : Private credit strategies like direct lending can offer an attractive option for investors looking to generate higher yields and diversify their portfolio from traditional fixed income. The ruble immediately plunged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Portfolio Assets 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Jim Bianco, Chief Strategist at Bianco Research, and His firm has been providing objective and unconventional research and commentary to portfolio managers since 1990, and it is top rated amongst institutional traders.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 6, 2023

Markets The 60/40 portfolio return equation reset last year. hunterwalk.com) The 'Creator Economy' was way overblown. institutionalinvestor.com) 2022 was a good year for quant funds, including AQR. msn.com) Global How the Ukrainian economy is adapting to war. econbrowser.com) The Fed is catching up to reality.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Startup Economy Media 130

The Big Picture

JULY 18, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday train WFH reads: • Good News-Bad News About the Economy : The hard part about markets and the economy is that there are often conflicting signals about what’s going on. Wall Street analysts think companies in the S&P 500 will see earnings per share rise just 1% in 2023, compared with 2022. I became one.

Portfolio Management 237

Portfolio Management Economy Assets Management 237

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008-09, the income portion of portfolios has been almost an afterthought. For the decade1 from 2012 to 2022, 10-year Treasuries yielded less than 3% and averaged closer to 2%. And this was before the 2022-23 rate hiking cycle. Interested in speaking to us? We will be in town November 5th-8th.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Government Wealth Management Clients 147

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 18, 2023

wsj.com) The periodic table of commodity returns for 2022. allstarcharts.com) Why 2022 was an unusually bad year for the 60/40 portfolio. institutionalinvestor.com) Startup valuations trended down in the second half of 2022. institutionalinvestor.com) Economy Retail sales fell 1.1% in December 2022.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Startup Wealth Management Valuation 130

Good Financial Cents

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

In this guide, we’re going to present the 10 best long-term investment strategies for 2022. The table below provides a quick summary of each of the 10 best long-term investment strategies for 2022, along with the main features and benefits of each. Below is our list of the 10 best long-term investment strategies for 2022.

Investments 109

Investments Investing Retirement Planning Risk Tolerance 109

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Resilience is Core to Sustainable Portfolio Construction. Wed, 09/21/2022 - 10:50. While the old adage “only time will tell” generally refers to a future outcome, it is apropos of our belief that a truly sustainable portfolio must consist of businesses that have proven to be resilient under a variety of macroeconomic circumstances.

Portfolio 86

Portfolio Manufacturing Investments Investing 86

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Let’s look at the scorecard: Bitcoin – it boomed in 2020 well in advance of the big inflation spike in 2021 & 2022 and weirdly busted as inflation reared its ugly head. The answer is that this is a fairly small slice of the aggregate bond market and an even smaller slice of most investors’ portfolios.

Economy 101

Economy Retail Government Banking 101

The Big Picture

JANUARY 31, 2024

Bad things happen when the economy contracts. Music] I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money , we’re gonna discuss how to accurately identify– in advance, in real-time – when the economy is going into recession. Tell us what happens to the economy during a recession. Inflation went up.

Economy 298

Economy Economics Consulting Marketing 298

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Markets How major asset classes performed in November 2022. capitalspectator.com) Lumber is the worst performing commodity of 2022. on.ft.com) Private equity has been slow to mark down portfolio values. wsj.com) It's hard to argue that Brexit has been a net-positive for the UK economy.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Economy Manufacturing Media 130

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

Marketing 68

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

bloomberg.com) Bitcoin is at its highest level since June 2022. ft.com) Why where investors mark the portfolios can be all over the place. bloomberg.com) Economy What does a 'no landing' economic scenario look like? Markets The FTSE 100 Index has risen above 8,000 points for the first time ever. pragcap.com) Fidelity is hiring!

Financial Advising 147

Financial Advising Engineering Valuation Retail 147

Abnormal Returns

JULY 12, 2022

Markets S&P 500 companies paid out a record amount of dividends in Q2 2022. wsj.com) Stock-bond correlation worked against the 60/40 portfolio this year. caia.org) Every major asset class yields more than it did at the beginning of 2022. fastcompany.com) Economy How to model an economic recession in real-time.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 130

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

theirrelevantinvestor.com) When bond diversification dilutes your portfolio diversification. wisdomtree.com) Deflation Wholesale used car prices fell in October 2022. snippet.finance) Economy We're all just sitting around waiting for the recession to start. Strategy The stock market is rewarding companies showing profitability.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Economy Media Portfolio 130

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 9, 2024

This current bull market is nearly 26 months old and is now up more than 70% from the mid-October 2022 lows. Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. It was strong even in 2022 and 2023, which was another clue that a recession wasnt imminent.

Marketing 62

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 62