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Wednesday links: sub-optimal portfolios

Abnormal Returns

danieldrezner.substack.com) Fund management The shift from mutual funds to ETFs has accelerated in 2022. wsj.com) Economy The 3 month-18 month Treasury spread is almost inverted. The question is whether Elon Musk is the guy to do it. ramp.beehiiv.com) Elon is moving fast and breaking stuff at Twitter.

Portfolio 245
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Supply Chain Is 40% of Inflation

The Big Picture

Most observers of the economy assumed the answer to his question was “some amount,” but I believe di Giovanni and his co-authors are the first to quantify it: “Our analysis of the relative importance of supply-side versus demand-side factors finds 60 percent of U.S. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022). November 7, 2022).

Medicine 363
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The Many Ways the FOMC Can Be Wrong…

The Big Picture

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. Regardless, it’s a worthwhile exercise to wargame Fed actions, and consider what they might mean to your portfolio and/or personal finances. When Your Only Tool is a Hammer (November 1, 2022).

Economy 352
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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. 2022 can be understood as part of that process. through January 4, 2022. Alas, utterly nothing.

Economy 328
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Passive vs. Active

The Big Picture

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. Dangerous for economy. Concentrated portfolio risk. Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) May 5, 2022. Devouring capitalism.

Taxes 334
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Forecasting Recessions

The Big Picture

This came up yesterday on Portfolio Rescue with Ben Carlson. We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. Economy, State by State (November 22, 2023) Can Economists Predict Recessions? It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases. Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 288
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What Else Might be Driving Sentiment?

The Big Picture

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. This quarter, it was Sentiment. 2 Regardless, something is amiss.

Media 351