Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 27, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) 2022 shows that every portfolio strategy comes under pressure. nytimes.com) Companies Revisiting Tesla's ($TSLA) valuation, post-Twitter fiasco. wsj.com) Intel ($INTC) had a tough 2022 and 2023 isn't looking better. Strategy The investment landscape has completely transformed in the past century.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Distribution Valuation Media 245

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 27, 2023

bloomberg.com) SpaceX's valuation keeps rising, due in part to Starlink's success. morningstar.com) Economy Home prices peaked June 2022. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Do commodities have a role to play in a long-term, strategic asset allocation? axios.com) Finance The private equity crowd is finding mega-deals hard to come by.

Asset Allocation 243

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Startup Valuation 243

Carson Wealth

JULY 27, 2022

It all added up to the third most volatile market in 25 years. And while the economy isn’t going to just turn on a dime and recover overnight, there is hope for a better second half of the year. Valuations Could Move to a More Normal Range . Q3 2022’s Five Big Risks. High inflation. Continual losses in the S&P 500.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 98

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 229

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 229

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 5, 2022

His new book “ The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest ” is a nominee for FT’s 2022 Business Book of the Year. We discuss Chancellor’s history as an analyst interested in speculative bubbles, which led him to write a research paper on valuations and why the dotcom bubble looks a lot like other historical bubbles.

Valuation 307

Valuation Economy Management Marketing 307

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2022

Undaunted by another Fed rate hike and news of a contracting economy, the stock market rallied last week on better-than-expected corporate earnings. Powell indicated that it might become appropriate to slow the pace of future hikes, and he didn’t believe the economy had entered into recession. Economy Contracts . Factory Orders.

Marketing 104

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 104

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 18, 2023

wsj.com) The periodic table of commodity returns for 2022. allstarcharts.com) Why 2022 was an unusually bad year for the 60/40 portfolio. institutionalinvestor.com) Startup valuations trended down in the second half of 2022. institutionalinvestor.com) Economy Retail sales fell 1.1% in December 2022.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Startup Wealth Management Valuation 130

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 9, 2023

(axios.com) Finance Private equity managers are abusing their discretion when it comes to valuations. raised about 1% of 2022 venture capital funding. theverge.com) Economy Roger Lowenstein, "The only “good” Fed is that one promotes sustainable growth. thinkadvisor.com) Black founders in the U.S.

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 242

James Hendries

AUGUST 3, 2022

Perhaps the market’s biggest fear has been that the Fed may overdo its tightening to fight inflation and send the economy into a painful recession, break something, or both. He acknowledged that the economy is slowing (which is what the Fed wants) and that the full effect of the rate hikes had not yet been felt. Of course, the U.S.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 98

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 31, 2022

Meanwhile, positive earnings surprises from “old economy” companies powered markets higher. Source: Econoday, October 28, 2022 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. Source: Zacks, October 28, 2022 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. The Wall Street Journal, October 28, 2022.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 105

Carson Wealth

APRIL 8, 2024

economy continues to look solid, with markets rallying Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Pockets of attractive valuations exist despite above-average valuations in some high-profile areas of the market. However, a break in early 2022 indicated elevated odds that the rest of the year could be dicey.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 92

James Hendries

JANUARY 13, 2023

Here are some of our lessons learned from 2022. One of the lessons learned in 2022 was to never underestimate our central bank’s resolve to squelch inflation. At the start of 2022, markets expected the upper bound of the fed funds rate to stay below 1%. economy to avoid recession, and support above-average valuations.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

Did the palpable panic in June/October 2022 lead to ill-advised sell(s)? are fast-growing, highly profitable key players in the modern economy. Private Credit : An unnamed person from the hedge fund industry pointed out that around the June 2022 lows, there were big redemptions from allocators who shifted capital away from hedge funds.

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

bloomberg.com) Bitcoin is at its highest level since June 2022. Everything else it built in-house has crashed and burned." (howardlindzon.com) Private assets Why private equity needs much better valuations. bloomberg.com) Economy What does a 'no landing' economic scenario look like? pragcap.com) Fidelity is hiring!

Financial Advising 146

Financial Advising Engineering Valuation Retail 146

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

The overhang of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech the previous week carried over into last week as investors recalibrated stock valuations amid a seemingly more assertive monetary policy stance. Employers added 315,000 jobs in August, maintaining the labor market’s remarkable resiliency amid a contracting economy. in August and 5.2%

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 59

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

capitalspectator.com) Don't be surprised to see the stock market rally before the economy bottoms out. every.to) Q3 saw big drops in startup valuations. pitchbook.com) Funds 2022 shows that not all bond funds are created equal. Markets How major asset classes performed in October 2020.

Accounting 130

Accounting Startup Financial Advising Valuation 130

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

The year began with a reversal in investors’ mood, from widespread pessimism about a pending recession at the end of 2022 to optimism for a soft landing for the economy, predicated on better-than-expected economic data. Rates might rise and stay higher for longer, challenging the current lofty valuations for equities.

Valuation 104

Valuation Economy Economics Marketing 104

Aleph

MARCH 25, 2023

Picture Credit: Aleph Blog || I know this is late, but still, here it is… At December 31st, 2022, the S&P 500 was priced to return 3.26%/year over the next ten years. After years of being a “superhero,” trying to create permanent prosperity, they have created an economy that has too much debt. The Fed does too much.

Banking 64

Banking Assets Valuation Food 64

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

economy is in or about to enter recession, so we thought a piece on what a recession might mean for the stock market would be of interest. economy is not currently in recession, odds are still perhaps a coin flip or better that one may come in the next year. While Friday’s strong jobs report provides more evidence that the U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 16, 2024

We believe the odds of a recession remain low, with continued income growth, a recovery in rate-sensitive cyclical areas of the economy, and untapped potential for productivity gains helping to support the expansion. Market participants, strategists, policymakers, and the economy rarely saw eye to eye.

Investing 92

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 92

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Cea, co-author of "Beloved Economies: Transforming How We Work." theatlantic.com) In a bull market, no one argues about the valuation of private assets. Then 2022 happened. Books A Q&A with Joanna L. annehelen.substack.com) A Q&A with Danield Pink author of "The Power of Regret: How Looking Backward Moves Us Forward."

Manufacturing 130

Manufacturing Valuation Economy Assets 130

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

Dividends come from earnings, and so those are sort of anchors to valuation. Jeremy Schwartz : And basically said that there’s huge Tech stocks, triple-digit PEs, you can never justify the valuations no matter what the growth rates are. Present value of future cash flows, any asset is present value of future cash flows.

Investing 290

Investing Investments Valuation Portfolio 290

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

The growth vs. value debate has been pretty one-sided in 2022, with value outperforming growth for a sustained period for the first time in almost 15 years. Value vs. Growth – Value Takes 2022. Increasing the discount rate, which lowers the present value of future cash flows, and company valuations. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 26, 2024

We Aren’t Alone Anymore A year ago, we told anyone who would listen that the economy would likely avoid a recession and stocks were going to have a great year. Since avoiding a recession is normal, falling concern about the economy isn’t contrarian in itself, but we do lose some extra fuel from bearish views unwinding.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 92

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

Given the lag between Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and the real economy, we have not likely seen the bottom in the housing market. Outside of the pandemic, the rate of sales were close to sales rates in 2007 and 2008, when the economy was in the depths of a housing crisis [Figure 3]. Regional differences are profound. Conclusion.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Sales Economy 98

James Hendries

OCTOBER 18, 2022

economy in mid-March, 62% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates, and aggregate earnings were within one percentage point of expectations. economy, as measured by gross domestic product, so the ISM index tends to have some predictive power when it comes to earnings. The S&P 500 is more manufacturing-heavy than the U.S. Conclusion.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

The key to getting the market back into balance is a bigger labor force, and the economy is starting to experience a larger labor force as individuals come off the sidelines and rejoin the job market. The global economy is complex, and a simplification of reality always introduces distortions, so perhaps we should zoom out a bit.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 5, 2022

He cited several areas of progress in the inflation fight, including a deceleration in interest rate sensitive parts of the economy, such as housing and supply chain improvement. Source: Econoday, December 2, 2022 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. The Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2022. Consumer Sentiment.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 59

James Hendries

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Retail sales data from the Census Bureau (we focus on the Retail Sales excluding Food Service, Autos, Building Materials, and Gas Stations statistics) has shown year-over-year growth, slow from the average mid-teens numbers seen in 2021, to a still healthy upper-single digits number in 2022 [Figure 2]. over the last 20 years, pre-2020.

Retail 52

Retail Marketing Marketing Sales 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 10, 2022

Falling yields further lifted investor enthusiasm, as did new economic data indicating a cooling economy. Source: Econoday, October 7, 2022. Source: Zacks, October 7, 2022. The Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2022. The Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2022. The Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2022.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 59

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

economy contracted for the second straight quarter. With a strong, even if slowing, job market and resilient consumer spending, we believe not enough sectors of the economy are contracting to qualify as an official recession. Given the slowing economy, intense cost pressures, and a strong U.S. All index data from FactSet.

Clients 52

Clients Marketing Marketing Valuation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 30, 2022

The numerous challenges last quarter included a slowing economy, intensifying inflation pressures, ongoing global supply chain disruptions, and a surging U.S. Estimated profit margins for the second half of 2022 did indeed come down as companies reported, but not dramatically so. annualized according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 25, 2022

economy enters a recession, the causes and potential outcome will be hotly debated. Diffusion describes an economy that has experienced a contraction in a wide range of sectors, such as trade, business activity, and consumer spending. Pockets of Vulnerability Magnified by Monetary Policy – October 10, 2022. If the U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 8, 2022

economy added 528,000 jobs in July, doubling the consensus expectation of 258,000. Leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and healthcare lead the way in reported job gains, as seen in most sectors of the economy. Source: Econoday, August 5, 2022 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 22, 2022

Fed officials did acknowledge that further rate hikes risked unintended economic weakness because of the time it takes for higher rates to work through the economy. Source: Econoday, August 19, 2022 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. Source: Zacks, August 19, 2022 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 59

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. The Economy Slows But Inflation Follows Too Slowly. economy grew at a 2.6%

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economy 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 29, 2022

Stocks rallied on Thursday, sparked by a revised Gross Domestic Product estimate showing the economy’s shrinking less than initially estimated. Source: Econoday, August 26, 2022 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. Source: Zacks, August 26, 2022 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only.

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Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 59