Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. It has now been nearly two years since firms saw sustained growth. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 323

Clients Numbers Economics Investing 323

The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

These numbers would make for a respectable year much less half that time. More importantly, were you relying on these people to inform your investment views? Because almost nobody saw this rally coming. Why were they so sure they knew what was going to happen? What were their sources? Their process?

Numbers 325

Numbers Investing Investments Management 325

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2024

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. for the month , as more firms reported a decrease in billings in May than in April.

Clients 320

Clients Numbers Economics Investing 320

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 15, 2023

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. This report indicates not only a decrease in billings at firms, but also a reduction in the number of clients exploring and committing to new projects, which could potentially impact future billings.

Numbers 325

Numbers Investing Investments Clients 325

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. FRBNY, Center for Microeconomic Data (August 2022 Data).

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. We don’t make investments based on forecasts, and any number of random surprises could make the economy appreciably better or worse. Previously : Risk & Reward: Two Sides of Same Coin (July 20, 2022).

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.'

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

Strategy The normalization of interest rates is going to change how people invest. behaviouralinvestment.com) Why wealthy investor don't invest aggressively enough. arstechnica.com) Venture capital Just how deep in the hole is Masayoshi Son on his Vision Fund 'investments'? abnormalreturns.com) Don't borrow money to invest.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Economics 245

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

4) Participation Rate: In December 2022, the overall participation rate was at 62.3%, up year-over-year from 62.0% The Labor Force Participation Rate in December 2022 was at 62.3% (red), down from the pre-pandemic level of 63.4% By December 2022, the labor force was about 0.5 By December 2022, the labor force was about 0.5

Economics 289

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 289

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

For example, from ECRI a year ago (May 26, 2022): Opinion: It’s time to prepare for a recession (ht SV). In December 2022 I went on " recession watch " for only the 3rd time in the 19 years that I've been writing this blog, but I noted I didn't see a recession coming yet. Residential investment has also peaked.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

tker.co) A link to the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. annual shareholder report.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

million employees, more than half of whom were hired in 2020-2022. I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. Amazon , now has 1.5 Google just fired 12,000 people; they hired 57,000 over the past two years.

Numbers 325

Numbers Economics Planning Investing 325

Calculated Risk

APRIL 24, 2024

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. While inquiries into new projects have continued to grow during that period, it has been at a slower pace than in 2021 and 2022. for the month. Click on graph for larger image.

Economics 240

Economics Clients Investing Investments 240

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. Given that, you would imagine that investors would approach these future expectations of rate changes with a grain of salt. (I

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Nerd's Eye View

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Read More.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Retirement Planning Retirement Insurance 246

The Big Picture

JUNE 21, 2023

Sinclair had a clear bead on the financial industry, especially the high-cost, active-investing side of it, even though he was writing about the meatpacking industry. Their numbers are few – they are the exception that proves the rule. Alas, the war against misinformation is never-ending series of skirmishes.

Management 312

Management Investing Investments Numbers 312

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

Also in industry news this week: How enforcement of FINRA Rule 4111 could further the decline in the number of broker-dealers and registered representatives. From there, we have several articles on investments: How Morningstar plans to simplify its rating system amid continued concerns about its effectiveness.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Strategic Planning Retirement Planning Retirement 246

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 5, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that customer arbitration claims related to the SEC's Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI) nearly doubled between 2022 and 2023, suggesting that greater awareness among investors of the increased standards for broker-dealers and their (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Fee Only Clients Investing 246

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 23, 2023

(morningstar.com) It's easy to forget how bad 2022 was for retirement account investors. wsj.com) Why you are unlikely to profit off the next big thematic investment theme. wapo.st) Given bad affordability numbers its hard to see house prices bottoming soon. cnbc.com) Strategy Not everyone is giving up on the crypto markets.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Media Retirement Banking 246

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

A Very Tough Year : The S&P 500 has declined more than 1% in one out of four days so far in 2022. Why Jack Welch Wouldn’t Cut It Today : Bill George, a legendary CEO in his own right, says good quarterly numbers aren’t necessarily indicative of strong leadership. Wealth of Common Sense ). • Institutional Investor ).

Engineering 306

Engineering Economy Manufacturing Retirement 306

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

Lack of Single Family Homes : We’ve discussed this before most notably in 2021, but home builders have wildly underbuilt the number of houses relative to population growth following the financial crisis (GFC). That is especially true in housing, where the Fed is creating new problems and making existing ones even worse: 1.

Food 317

Food Economy Numbers Sales 317

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 8, 2024

Read More.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Asset Allocation Clients Risk Management 246

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

The investment was pitched as a nearly risk-free opportunity to earn annual returns of 50 percent by lending money to slip-and-fall victims awaiting checks after the settlement of their lawsuits.” Legal, but a terrible investment, and a poor alignment of risks relative to reward. It ended with FBI gunfire.

Math 64

Math Investing Investments Sales 64

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

The recession callers were back in the first half of 2022, and some like ARK's Cathie Wood and Home Depot's Ken Langone claimed the US was already in a recession. One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). Residential investment has also peaked.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Big Picture

MARCH 2, 2023

Yahoo Finance ) • World’s Rich Take Advantage as $1 Trillion Property Market Craters : Wealthy investors were the most active buyers of commercial property in 2022, a new report finds. New York Times ) • The 17 Best EVs Coming in 2023 : Electric vehicles went mainstream in 2022, so 2023’s designs will be bold, weird, and wonderful.

Electronics 278

Electronics Consulting Assets Media 278

The Big Picture

JUNE 2, 2023

The relevance of perspective to investing is self-evident. Essentially, monthly Non-Farm Payrolls is the net difference between these two groups: The actual number is far smaller and less significant than gets played most publicly. The monthly number ( May 2023 = 339,000) is a tenth or so of the ~1.5% Each month, about 1.5%

Numbers 312

Numbers Valuation Retirement Economics 312

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 3, 2024

You can see that 60/40 equities/managed futures stayed close to 60/40 equities/bonds at a time when managed futures was doing poorly and then pulled ahead in recent years including going up 3.25% in 2022. The advantage that both managed futures portfolios had over traditional 60/40 is how well they did in 2022.

Numbers 96

Numbers Portfolio Management Retirement 96

The Big Picture

JULY 10, 2024

Investing Is Hard with Brian Portnoy (July 10, 2024) Why is investing so hard? Portnoy has held senior investment roles throughout the hedge fund and mutual fund industries. Portnoy has held senior investment roles throughout the hedge fund and mutual fund industries. It turns out that investing is hard for a reason.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Numbers Portfolio 147

The Chicago Financial Planner

NOVEMBER 27, 2022

The maximum for 2022 is $61,000, this has been increased to $66,000 for 2023. For 2022, the employer and employee combined contribution limit is a maximum of $61,000 and $67,500 for those who are 50 or over, respectively. Employee contribution limits are $20,500 for 2022 and $22,500 for 2023. Employer contributions only.

Retirement Planning 263

Retirement Planning Retirement Planning Financial Planner 263

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

The recession callers were back in the first half of 2022, and some like ARK's Cathie Wood and Home Depot's Ken Langone claimed the US was already in a recession. One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). Residential investment has also peaked.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 13, 2023

2022 was a record year for earnings call swearing : The “polycrisis” of runaway inflation, pandemics, interest rate increases, supply chain snafus and wars helped lift swearing on earnings calls and investor days to a new record high in 2022. Our investments will be chosen on the basis of value, not popularity. RIP meme stocks.

Media 276

Media Transportation Engineering Distribution 276

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

Podcasts Daniel Crosby talks with Tom Howard about behavioral finance vs. behavioral investing. riabiz.com) The number of CFPs grew some 5% in 2022. (fa-mag.com) standarddeviationspod.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with Dasarte Yarnway about the importance of diversity in financial services and how to increase it.

Clients 245

Clients Retirement Financial Services Taxes 245

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 22, 2025

That's a slow 90% decline into early 2022 from when it first listed and over the last ten months it has cut in half. The value, if you believe there is value, is that the strategy could go up 10, 20, 30% in a year like 2022 which many funds did. Morningstar just under a year ago found that it had returned 4.8% a year, versus 5.9%

Investing 59

Investing Investments Risk Tolerance Management 59

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. If there was something magical about 2% as the ideal balance between prices and jobs, that would be one thing.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). This is not intended as investment advice. In its 2022 first quarter release, the FDIC list had a material $119 billion increase in assets.

Banking 147

Banking Assets Media Insurance 147

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

Did the palpable panic in June/October 2022 lead to ill-advised sell(s)? Private Credit : An unnamed person from the hedge fund industry pointed out that around the June 2022 lows, there were big redemptions from allocators who shifted capital away from hedge funds. Understand your investment horizon, be it minutes or decades.

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Carson Wealth

MAY 20, 2024

April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. Our stance has long been that investing is not about timing the market, but time in the market. Instead, invest and use the long run to your advantage. It’s another reminder that when it comes to investing, patience is rewarded.

Numbers 96

Numbers Marketing Marketing Insurance 96