Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

The "endowment" result is very close to red line VBAIX every year except 2020 when it lagged by almost 600 basis point and 2022 when it outperformed by about 500 basis points. The portfolio did just fine, it captured most of the upside and avoided the full brunt in 2022's large decline.

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Math Portfolio Taxes Marketing 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 11, 2024

It is of course not dead but bonds became a far less effective diversifier years ago, long before 2022 when interest rates started going up. The risk was there for years, 2022 when when there was a consequence to investors who took that risk. I would say that is a very big bet but the math in their backtest supports it.

Math 98

Math Portfolio Management Taxes 98

The Big Picture

JANUARY 21, 2025

But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. I did it during the coronavirus collapse in 2020, and I did it again in 2022. I realized I had enough to retire if I wanted to. I did it in 2000, 2002.

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Investing Investments Management Retirement 147

Discipline Funds

MARCH 6, 2024

So, if you owned $100 worth of bonds yielding 2% in 2022 you now own $90 worth of bonds yielding 5%. Since the Fed started raising rates in 2022 the annual interest burden on the national debt went from $635B to $1,025B. This is the basic math behind what’s happened to every consumer who owns these bonds.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 12, 2023

My experience is that the typical retired person/couple expects growth in exchange for some volatility from the equity portion of their portfolio, they don't want it from their fixed income sleeve. It made no sense to buy down at that low yield to manage equity volatility and 2022 showed it increased portfolio volatility.

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Math Clients Retirement 75

Sara Grillo

JUNE 24, 2024

The math behind Universal Life Insurance Interest Rates is a twisted web and most consumers are deceived. Know how the math works so you can see the potential risks that may exist with your policy. Money market rates crashed to zero (0%) in 2022 due to Covid-19. Don’t be fooled! That is a mathematical impossibility.

Insurance 59

Insurance Math Financial Advice Compliance 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 22, 2023

And then just a little math, the "guarantee" based on the 50/50 allocation would be 2.5% Down less clearly worked in 2022 and YTD HEQT is lagging the S&P 500 by 400 basis points. Keep it to something broad like a total market fund or a market cap weighted large cap index.

Math 74

Math Portfolio Investing Investments 74

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 14, 2023

She has a really fascinating background, very eclectic, a combination of math and law. You, you get a, a BS in Mathematics and a JD from Boston University Math and Law. It is something, math has always come easy to me since a child. I didn’t get an advanced degree in math. Not the usual combination. What happened?

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Math Management Insurance Assets 130

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JUNE 2, 2023

Unfortunately, we’re not quite there yet as a society, since as of 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports only a third of financial advisors are women. In 2022, nearly 42% of the externships participants were women. women tend to live longer, making it much more important to plan for a longer retirement) or a subjective one (e.g.

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Financial Planning Planning CFP Financial Advisor 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

There was a lot of content from various places over the weekend about whether it is time to go back into bonds, what retired investors should do for yield and even whether retirees are better off going 100% into equities. As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% Barron's also noted that 60/40 was up 9.6% in November.

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Math Assets Retirement 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 1, 2023

A quick excerpt from a post a couple of weeks ago about retirement misconceptions. I would much rather withdraw 10% or more per year from my retirement accounts and do it without taking any principal. Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills.

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Math Retirement Numbers Portfolio 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 27, 2022

It has had a great 2022 but doesn't appear to have captured much upside coming into 2022. In terms of complexity, several of the funds blend together multiple complex strategies and the blend itself is complex in terms of the math applied and the outcomes sought, they are complex-complexity. It's multi-asset and multi-strategy.

Portfolio 96

Portfolio Clients Assets Math 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

In the case of real estate a 2.29% weighting and for "private equity" companies it's about 17 basis points (looked at XLF holdings and then did a little math), that's just not going to move the needle. You may agree with Jack about not needing those things, that's valid, my point is that owning an index fund isn't a proxy for them.

Math 75

Math Portfolio Marketing Marketing 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 20, 2023

The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX (Portfolio 2 with 33% in the T-bill ETF) equals 100% in Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for 60/40 and Portfolio 3. Portfolio 1 is 100% in NTSX which in 2022 was down 25.84% versus down 16.85% for Portfolio 2 and 16.87% for Portfolio 3.

Assets 74

Assets Portfolio Math Management 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 14, 2022

Here's how QYLD has done for the last 5 years coming into 2022, so before the market was underway, versus the NASDAQ. And here is 2022, the bear market. Similar to PUTW, it didn't offer protection during the pandemic crash of 2020 but only dropping half of what the S&P 500 index has dropped in 2022 is impressive and surprises me.

Portfolio 72

Portfolio Math Clients Marketing 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 29, 2024

The authors noted that risk parity did very well for a long time but that "bond based risk-parity failed miserably in 2022." In fund form, it started doing badly long before 2022 which is corroborated by AQR's change to AQRIX in 2019. Both 2 and 3 were up in 2022 while the RPAR replication was down 11%.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Assets Management Math 52

The Better Letter

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Those of us called upon professionally to write about market performance in 2022 as the year ends are necessarily struggling for the right verbiage. That’s because, in language as plain as I can make it, pretty much every market and sector has had a very bad 2022. percent and 6-month T-bills are yielding almost 4.75

Investing 80

Investing Investments Portfolio Numbers 80

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 1, 2024

Despite the leveraged semiconductor ETFs, when blended with USMV, the portfolio is underweight technology versus the S&P 500 using simple math, it works out to about 26% versus closer to 40% for the S&P 500. They even did much better than 60/40 in 2022 dropping only low to mid single digits.

Math 52

Math Portfolio Taxes Accounting 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 29, 2023

This year, its performance has it the top 1% of mutual funds but in “2021 and 2022 it was ranked in the bottom 100th percentile.” Yeah, that sounds pretty good (giving them the benefit of the doubt about the math)… pretty good for an equity. I probably wrote about this one a couple of times back in the first iteration of this blog.

Insurance 96

Insurance Clients Math Portfolio 96

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. So I applied to Maryland State retirement.

Assets 147

Assets Management Investing Investments 147

Sara Grillo

MAY 16, 2022

From the company’s website, as of May 16th, 2022: Single people. From the company’s ADV Part 2 brochure, as of May 16th, 2022: Fees are set as a fixed annual fee, paid quarterly, and based approximately on the total time required to service an account yearly. Retirement Portfolio Partners. 375 start up. $89

Financial Advisor 52

Financial Advisor Financial Advice Financial Planner Assets 52

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. RITHOLTZ: So you mentioned earlier 2022 was so unusual. SALISBURY: Sure. SALISBURY: Yes. SALISBURY: Yes.

Assets 299

Assets Clients Investing Investments 299

Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

Even Mr. Money Mustache, as a person who retired 17 years ago, is still in this boat for the simple reason that my retirement income from dividends and hobby businesses is still greater than my annual living expenses (which still hover around $20,000 per year). 3) Okay, but I really am retired and trying to live off my investments now.

Marketing 53

Marketing Marketing Retirement Investing 53

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 11, 2024

Imagine the Intel scenario of down 59% on top of VBAIX dropping 16% in 2022. Most of the improved return can be attributed to 2022. A 20% drop in managed futures that is leveraged to a 40% weight would have added another 800 basis points to the decline (simple math). In 2008, VBAIX was down 23%.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Management Math Taxes 52

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. And that a bit of that cult, Dick and Ike are both retired now. And I very much get the sense he has no interest in retiring. Quality strategies in 2022.

Valuation 130

Valuation Investing Investments Assets 130

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 21, 2024

As an example, institutional investors mentioned King Street in 2022, perhaps the worst year for hedge funds since oh 8 0 9. I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. Tell us what it was like trading in 2022.

Numbers 147

Numbers Banking Investing Investments 147

Good Financial Cents

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

However, by doing a little math, you can easily determine your hourly wage from your annual salary. The amount of taxes you pay will depend on several factors, including your filing status, job status, the state you live in, retirement contributions, and your income. State By State $55,000 a Year Salary After Taxes in 2022.

Budgeting 64

Budgeting Taxes Transportation Insurance 64

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. BITTERLY MICHELL: … difficult situations for those who were retiring, right, and those …. So heading into 2022, there surely were pockets of froth. I was econ and kind of geeky.

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Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 299

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

I got to imagine a year like 2022 wasn’t horrible for Vanguard’s asset growth. And when you saw the US Ag down 13% last year, for folks, again, who are investing for retirement and in their 529 plans, they’re not concerned about it. Go to the decade before 2022, the equity side was something like 13%.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Investing Investments Numbers 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX replicates 100% into a 60/40 portfolio which leaves 33% left over to do something. In 2022, VBAIX was down 16.87% while Portfolio 2 was only down 10.77%. In the 13 years between 2008 and 2022, VBAIX outperformed Portfolio 2 in six of those years with one year being a tie.

Portfolio 40

Portfolio Math Management Investing 40

Mr. Money Mustache

JANUARY 27, 2022

And since 2022 is becoming a year of interesting financial changes, it’s time to spark things up again, go back to our roots, and start covering some of the many subjects that are cropping up in this latest incarnation of our economic world. I am a retired, married Navy veteran living in beautiful (but expensive) San Diego.

Food 52

Food Retirement Math License 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 1, 2022

We dove in on the math at my old URL (sad story, no longer exists) and the math checks out. The benefit comes in a year like 2022, both managed futures funds are up 17% versus down 20% for the S&P 500. A long time ago I wrote about a portfolio concept derived by John Serrapere called 75/50.

Portfolio 40

Portfolio Math Management Clients 40

Sara Grillo

JUNE 12, 2023

Quick math: If you have $1.828 million in the bank. And , you have to do the math by hand. The New York Court of Appeals Constitutionally affirmed Reg 187 in October 2022. Now, quick math, if you have 128 million in the bank in your Christmas or Hannukah Club, and the bank is going to credit you 5% on your money 0:18:18.4

Insurance 59

Insurance Clients Financial Advisor Math 59

The Better Letter

FEBRUARY 8, 2024

Subscribe now Share The Better Letter Get more from Bob Seawright in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app TRIGGER WARNING: I’m going to do some sports math nerding-out this week. Brady is now retired as a seven-time Super Bowl champion, five-time Super Bowl MVP, 15-time Pro Bowler, and three-time NFL MVP.

Numbers 93

Numbers Education Management Math 93

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

My dad was a naval officer who retired shortly before I was born. What did your dad retire from doing? He retired and went to work at the Library of Congress as personnel. RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker? SHAW: So this is January of 2022. Tell us about those experiences.

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Recruitment Engineering Banking Investing 147

The Big Picture

JULY 4, 2023

2022 was certainly a challenging year for a lot of the hedge fund industry and it really separates the winners from the also-ran. I’ll have to be when I retire and publish under Anonymous. The Financial Times did an article at the beginning of this year and it talked about aggregate losses for 2022 in the industry.

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Management Recruitment Numbers Banking 147

The Better Letter

OCTOBER 6, 2022

” After the Dodgers were retired in order in the bottom of the eighth inning, Gibson swung his aching legs down from the training table to hobble toward the clubhouse. Issue 124 (October 7, 2022) 1 You can watch the entire game here. “How you doing, big boy?,” ” Lasorda asked. The answer was the same each time.

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Math Management Numbers Planning 68