Remove 2022 Remove Math Remove Taxes
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Catastrophizing Debt

The Big Picture

Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. population? The US population today is 341,814,420; in 2009 it was 308,512,035. Do we just ignore that? Do we pretend that there has been no inflation? By the way, inflation-adjust that $1.3T

Economy 347
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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

This is before we get to the issue of capital gains taxes, which create a hurdle of (minimum) 20% on those pesky profits just to get to breakeven. Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg.

Marketing 304
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What To Do When The Bitcoin Math Doesn't Math

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

There were 127 million US households as of 2022. First, is the math right based on my numbers? They are not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice or a recommended course of action in any given situation. So 25 million of them own a little Bitcoin worth a couple of hundred dollars?

Math 52
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"Bear Market Cumulative Returns"

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

And checking in on the GraniteShares YieldBoost SPY ETF (YSPY) that sells put spreads on a levered S&P 500 ETF; Yes, that is a rough start, clearly, but interestingly the math checks out. Then it made it back in 2022 when it was only down 1.1%. YSPY sells put spreads on a 3x fund.

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Did A Liquid Alternative Just Blow up?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The fund owns a lot of puts and should go up a lot in the face of a crash but not necessarily a slow protracted decline like there was in 2022. According to Portfoliovisualizer, CYA dropped 46.10% in 2022. The fund in question is the Simplify Tail Risk Strategy ETF (CYA). Here's what caught my eye that it might have blown up.

Math 105
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Diversification Is Alive & Well!

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

It is of course not dead but bonds became a far less effective diversifier years ago, long before 2022 when interest rates started going up. The risk was there for years, 2022 when when there was a consequence to investors who took that risk. I would say that is a very big bet but the math in their backtest supports it.

Math 98
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Word Association

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The "endowment" result is very close to red line VBAIX every year except 2020 when it lagged by almost 600 basis point and 2022 when it outperformed by about 500 basis points. The portfolio did just fine, it captured most of the upside and avoided the full brunt in 2022's large decline.

Math 52