Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 10, 2022

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease to New Survey Low in the Third Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.45 For much of the last two years, foreclosure moratoria were in place, which kept these numbers artificially low.

Numbers 355

Numbers 355

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 21, 2023

from Peak in June 2022 • December Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December California Home Sales down 44% YoY in December; Prices Down 2.8% At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02

Numbers 270

Numbers Sales Marketing Marketing 270

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2023

The Philly Fed map is based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data for the states; the St Louis Fed builds on that, creating an ongoing chart that shows the relationship between the state data and recessions: Number of States with Negative Growth (State Coincident Indexes). UPDATE: Jan 4 2022 10:53am. By Kevin L.

Numbers 290

Numbers Banking Economics 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2025

t took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. in December 2022. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 22.4% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2%

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 278

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2022

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2022. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2022 were 5.6 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2022 (5.8

Numbers 299

Numbers Media 299

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 2, 2022

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2022. This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2022 were 6.0 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter 2022 (5.6 percent) and 0.4

Numbers 295

Numbers Media 295

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

Earliler the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2022 by age, and I've updated the table from the previous post. The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030. population by age in July 2022 according to the Census Bureau.

Economy 363

Economy Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. In November, we saw the first positive score for multi-family since 2022.

Clients 270

Clients Investments Investing Economics 270

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 18, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction A brief excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). in December compared to December 2022.

Numbers 293

Numbers 293

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: September Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). in September compared to September 2022. Total starts were down 7.2%

Numbers 268

Numbers 268

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 17, 2023

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: October Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). in October compared to October 2022. Total starts were down 4.2%

Numbers 261

Numbers 261

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. below the recent peak in 2022. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory ) In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.5%

Numbers 278

Numbers 278

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). 10) Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022? Here is a graph from Realtor.com showing active inventory through November 2022. This was correct. year-over-year.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2023

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Increase Sharply in November, Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). in November compared to November 2022.

Numbers 267

Numbers 267

Calculated Risk

JUNE 20, 2023

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: May Housing Starts: Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). This was down in May compared to April, and 136 thousand below the recent peak in May 2022.

Numbers 246

Numbers 246

Calculated Risk

JUNE 1, 2023

From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2022. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2022 was 3,661,220, a nonsignificant decline from 2021. births per 1,000 women in 2022, essentially unchanged from 2021. births through 2022.

Numbers 240

Numbers 240

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 16, 2023

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: July Housing Starts: Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). This was down in July compared to June, and 153 thousand below the recent peak in May 2022.

Numbers 233

Numbers 233

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 23, 2023

million Total Housing Completions in 2022 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007 Excerpt: Although total housing starts decreased 3.0% in 2022 compared to 2021, completions increased year-over-year. Construction delays impacted completions in 2022, and that left a record number of housing units under construction.

Manufacturing 264

Manufacturing Numbers 264

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 The headline number was decent.

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

It took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. in December 2022. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 25.1% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2%

Marketing 214

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 214

Calculated Risk

JUNE 8, 2023

billion, and an average loss of $5,400 per borrower since the first quarter of 2022. As in the fourth quarter of 2022, Western states posted the largest annual home equity losses: Washington (-$74,300), California (-$59,600) and Utah (-$37,700). The report shows that U.S. year over year, representing a collective loss of $108.4

Numbers 363

Numbers Distribution Accounting 363

Calculated Risk

JUNE 23, 2023

of serious delinquencies in May, up only marginally from April and still more than a full percentage point below the March 2020 rate at the start of the pandemic • The number of loans in active foreclosure improved by 4K during the month and is now down 41K (-15%) from March 2020, with foreclosure sales (completions) rising 5.5%

Numbers 363

Numbers Sales 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 27, 2023

In January, the housing market built further on the impressive growth seen in late 2022. Even after surging more than 50% in December 2022, the number of homes on the market trailed pre-pandemic counts by nearly 40%. • In early 2022, inventory was declining rapidly, so the year-over-year change is up sharply.

Numbers 363

Numbers Sales Marketing Marketing 363

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 289,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 48,000 properties year-over-year. in January compared to December and decreased 15% year-over-year.

Numbers 336

Numbers Sales Marketing Marketing 336

Calculated Risk

JUNE 29, 2023

As mortgage rates surged in 2022, buyers saw costs soar, and a large number of shoppers reoriented their housing plans. The time it took to sell a home lengthened and the number of homes for sale piled up. year-over-year - this was the first YoY decrease in 59 weeks (since May 2022). Inventory is down 0.3%

Numbers 336

Numbers Sales Planning Marketing 336

Calculated Risk

MARCH 26, 2023

The Fed's Household Debt Service ratio through Q4 2022 was released last week: Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios. This data has limited value in terms of absolute numbers, but is useful in looking at trends. The Mortgage DSR and the Consumer DSR sum to the DSR.

Numbers 244

Numbers 244

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 24, 2022

The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 462,000 more payroll jobs as of March 2022. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates an upward adjustment to March 2022 total nonfarm employment of 462,000 (0.3 In February 2023, the payroll numbers will be revised up to reflect the final estimate.

Taxes 359

Taxes Manufacturing Numbers Insurance 359

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 27, 2023

Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported. Click on graph for larger image. January was the worst month for the previous two years, and this January has seen a much smaller increase in deaths.

Numbers 262

Numbers 262

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported. 3,907 2,705 ≤350 1 1 my goals to stop weekly posts, 2 Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths ? Click on graph for larger image.

Numbers 262

Numbers 262

Calculated Risk

JUNE 22, 2023

The number of homes for sale continues to grow, but the advantage over one year ago is shrinking and likely to slow in the months ahead. As mortgage rates surged in 2022, both buyers and sellers adjusted plans and expectations, and the number of for-sale homes on the market climbed sharply.

Numbers 342

Numbers Sales Planning Marketing 342

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 20, 2023

Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported. Click on graph for larger image. January was the worst month for the previous two years, and this has seen a much smaller increase in deaths.

Numbers 256

Numbers 256

Calculated Risk

JUNE 14, 2023

Before the CPI report was released, I wrote: Why Year-over-year Headline Inflation will Decline Sharply in May and June The key point was that energy and food prices soared in May and June 2022, and as those data points are removed from the year-over-year calculation, the YoY change will decline sharply.

Food 333

Food Numbers 333

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2022

As of August 2022, all of the jobs have returned. This doesn't include the preliminary benchmark revision that showed there were 462 thousand more jobs than originally reported in March 2022. • ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).

Retail 350

Retail Numbers Manufacturing 350

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

in June 2023 from June 2022 , their first decline in three months. million) were up 0.6% (32,547( carloads) over the same period in 2022 and were the highest since 2019. decline from June 2022 was their 16th straight. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022: Total originated carloads (which don’t include intermodal) on U.S.

Retail 357

Retail Numbers 357

Calculated Risk

MAY 8, 2023

Fannie Mae reported the number of REOs increased to 8,780 at the end of Q1 2023, essentially unchanged from 8,779 in Q4 2022, and up 18% from 7,430 at the end of Q1 2022. For Fannie, this is down 95% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Click on graph for larger image.

Numbers 317

Numbers 317

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 22, 2022

While the year was tough on the performance of most ETFs, it still saw a record number of launches, including single-stock funds. And despite many attempts, the SEC continues to reject spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Numbers 275

Numbers 275