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State Coincident Indicators: November 2022

The Big Picture

The Philly Fed map is based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data for the states; the St Louis Fed builds on that, creating an ongoing chart that shows the relationship between the state data and recessions: Number of States with Negative Growth (State Coincident Indexes). UPDATE: Jan 4 2022 10:53am. By Kevin L.

Numbers 284
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. below the recent peak in 2022. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory ) In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.5%

Numbers 109
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak

Calculated Risk

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. below the recent peak in 2022. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory ) In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.5%

Numbers 80
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I Ran The Numbers And They Work!

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

You can see that 60/40 equities/managed futures stayed close to 60/40 equities/bonds at a time when managed futures was doing poorly and then pulled ahead in recent years including going up 3.25% in 2022. The advantage that both managed futures portfolios had over traditional 60/40 is how well they did in 2022.

Numbers 96
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October Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: October Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). in October compared to October 2022. Total starts were down 4.2%

Numbers 102
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September Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: September Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). in September compared to September 2022. Total starts were down 7.2%

Numbers 105
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Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction A brief excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). in December compared to December 2022.

Numbers 115