The Big Picture

OCTOBER 9, 2022

JVL wrote, “The course exists for only two purposes: (1) to cull the number of attractive medical school applicants, and (2) to prepare a handful of students for a future in biochemical research.”. ~~~. What purpose does limiting the number of medical students (and therefore physicians) serve? Last, The Triad, Oct 4 2022.

Medical 334

Medical Education Numbers Healthcare 334

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s. Aspirational Pricing (May 25, 2022). This is atypical.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in November. The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls.

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 28, 2023

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2022: Reports from 4,706 commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reflect aggregate net income of $68.4 billion in fourth quarter 2022, a decrease of $3.3 The FDIC reported the number of problem banks decreased to 39.

Banking 144

Banking Insurance Numbers Assets 144

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). Economic Policy Institute, April 21, 2022). Fed should make clear that rising profit margins are spurring inflation (FT, November 2, 2022). The truth about inflation (Popular Information, November 7, 2022).

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

These numbers would make for a respectable year much less half that time. June 29, 2023) Groping for a Bottom (October 14, 2022) Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016) Too Many Bears (May 3, 2022) Capitulation Playbook (May 19, 2022) Nobody Knows Anything Predictions and Forecasts _ 1.

Numbers 325

Numbers Investing Investments Management 325

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. FRBNY, Center for Microeconomic Data (August 2022 Data).

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. The Federal Reserve has little control over the supply issues that have driven most of the inflation we see — in the underbuilt number of new Homes, in the semiconductor-impacted shortage of automobiles, I’m the Russian war-driven increases in energy and food.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 18, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction A brief excerpt: The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red). in December compared to December 2022.

Numbers 117

Numbers 117

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Cutter has put-up impressive numbers since its 2022 launch, and now manages more than $500 million in institutional assets. The firm is a market- and factor-neutral, long/short hedge fund focused on health-care companies. Prior to launching Cutter, he focused on U.S. and European healthcare at Citadel and Millenium.

Healthcare 294

Healthcare Economy Numbers Assets 294

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

As our discussions last week suggested, most of the falloff in Goods inflation began in the middle of 2022; elevated prices in wages, autos, housing, and energy are primarily driven by a lack of workers, a shortage of semiconductors, and a tiny supply of single-family homes (elevated energy prices are war related). October 7, 2022).

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 10, 2022

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease to New Survey Low in the Third Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.45 For much of the last two years, foreclosure moratoria were in place, which kept these numbers artificially low.

Numbers 142

Numbers 142

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.'

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. We don’t make investments based on forecasts, and any number of random surprises could make the economy appreciably better or worse. Previously : Risk & Reward: Two Sides of Same Coin (July 20, 2022).

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

Earliler the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2022 by age, and I've updated the table from the previous post. The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030. population by age in July 2022 according to the Census Bureau.

Economy 145

Economy Numbers 145

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2023

number is an average across all regions, industries, age groups, etc. December 9, 2022) Sorry, We’re Closed (March 13, 2020) _ 1. I mentioned a few weeks ago how much better Europe ‘s return to office rate was doing versus ours : 90+% RTO, while the USA is ~60%. I cannot speak to Europe, but that U.S. The biggest drag?

Numbers 321

Numbers Clients 321

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. below the recent peak in 2022. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory ) In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.4%

Numbers 104

Numbers 104

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 17, 2022

“Tesla’s strategic use of semiconductors has lowered the number of chips required to produce vehicles” has cut lead times , and allowed the firm to make more cars with fewer chips. See also : Mercedes Unveils New Electric SUV Aimed at Tesla’s Model Y (Bloomberg, October 16, 2022). The post What’s Ailing Tesla’s Stock?

Valuation 317

Valuation Numbers Sales Marketing 317

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

I suspect most people don’t have any idea about these numbers, and imagine the various starts to be closer together in dollar amounts than they actually are. The top 0.01% of US households had at least $111 million in net worth in 2012, compared to $4 million for the 1 %. Let’s Talk About the 0.01 Percent By Howard R.

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Economics Numbers 306

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. below the recent peak in 2022. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory ) In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.5%

Numbers 111

Numbers 111

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

tker.co) A link to the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. annual shareholder report.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

The Big Picture

AUGUST 9, 2023

Recall 2022, energy was one of the few bright spots as oil prices rallied mostly due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The flip side of this is the sectors that got shellacked in 2022 are now showing massive profit recoveries. This year, with lower oil prices, energy company profits dropped in half Back out the 51.5%

Communication 246

Communication Banking Numbers 246

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

I used seasonally-adjusted (SA) numbers where available, otherwise non-adjusted numbers (NSA). Labor Force Participation Rates 2019-2022. Participation Rates 2019 through 2022, October all years, BLS data, chart by Mish. Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 20-24: -1.6

Numbers 227

Numbers Retirement Economics 227

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Generational Bottoms Bitcoin is Life Hoot of the Day (From May 2022). Lord Wrymouth: Numbers like $10,879 as bears pile in for four digits and people panic sell. please see my June 18, 2022 post The Crypto Crash and Why It's Impossible For "You!" Bitcoin daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. Apologies offered.

Accounting 334

Accounting Numbers Assets Economics 334

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Instead of most states showing expansion, before recessions, that will drop to 45, 40, then 35 before a recession begins; eventually, the number of expanding states then fall to 10, 5, or 0. Previously : The Tide of Price over Volume (April 21, 2023) Signs of Softening (July 29, 2022) Are We in a Recession? (No)

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. Given that, you would imagine that investors would approach these future expectations of rate changes with a grain of salt. (I

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flat from March through June 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data. employment for the bulk of 2022.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

MAY 8, 2023

Here is a quick mental exercise to allow you to operate without your hindsight bias getting in the way: At the end of 2022, an all-knowing market deity visits to inform you that almost halfway through the year, 1) Rates will be appreciably higher; 2) Three of the biggest bank failures in U.S. Is the glass empty or half full?

Banking 321

Banking Media Marketing Marketing 321

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

ft.com) The 2022 fundraising scene is completely different than the prior 11 years. awealthofcommonsense.com) What falling tax withholding numbers say about the state of the economy. thinkadvisor.com) Books Tyler Cowen's favorite non-fiction books of 2022 including "Of Boys and Men" by Richard R.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Economics 245

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 8, 2024

Read More.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Asset Allocation Clients Risk Management 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

Lack of Single Family Homes : We’ve discussed this before most notably in 2021, but home builders have wildly underbuilt the number of houses relative to population growth following the financial crisis (GFC). That is especially true in housing, where the Fed is creating new problems and making existing ones even worse: 1.

Food 317

Food Economy Numbers Sales 317

The Big Picture

JUNE 2, 2023

Essentially, monthly Non-Farm Payrolls is the net difference between these two groups: The actual number is far smaller and less significant than gets played most publicly. The monthly number ( May 2023 = 339,000) is a tenth or so of the ~1.5% of the 159m total.

Numbers 312

Numbers Valuation Retirement Economics 312

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

For most of us who are not regularly crunching the numbers in spreadsheets, it may not feel that way. August 9, 2022) The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022) Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022) How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021) _ 1. But so too have wages. Others are positive but invisible.

Economics 321

Economics Budgeting Sales Media 321

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. below the recent peak in 2022. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory ) In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.5%

Numbers 103

Numbers 103

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

million employees, more than half of whom were hired in 2020-2022. I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. Amazon , now has 1.5 Google just fired 12,000 people; they hired 57,000 over the past two years.

Economics 325

Economics Numbers Planning Investing 325

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 20, 2023

While it remains to be seen whether the measures will actually be enacted, proposed measures include raising income and capital gains tax rates, instituting wealth taxes, and reducing the state estate tax exemption, potentially creating future planning opportunities for advisors with clients in those states.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Financial Advice Fee Only Financial Planning 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

Between January 2022 and June 2024, the state created 523,700 private sector jobs — not 5,400 as claimed. MSM uncritically repeated the false number. Between January 2022 and June 2024, total California jobs grew by about 156,000, with government jobs accounting for 96.5 I spend far too much time debunking economic b t.

Government 356

Government Media Economics Food 356