Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.74% in July The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.81% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.74% as of July 31, 2022.

Portfolio 223

Portfolio Planning Numbers 223

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased by 1 basis point from 0.69% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.70% as of October 31, 2022.

Portfolio 208

Portfolio Numbers Planning 208

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.

Portfolio 204

Portfolio Numbers Planning Taxes 204

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 8, 2024

Read More.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Asset Allocation Clients Risk Management 246

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 3, 2024

You can see that 60/40 equities/managed futures stayed close to 60/40 equities/bonds at a time when managed futures was doing poorly and then pulled ahead in recent years including going up 3.25% in 2022. 90/40 had a higher CAGR than traditional 60/40 but lower than 60% equities/40% managed futures in Portfolio 3.

Numbers 96

Numbers Portfolio Management Retirement 96

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 20, 2023

Also in industry news this week: While the number of RIA M&A deals increased in 2022, the size of these deals declined, perhaps reflecting challenging market and economic headwinds A recent survey suggests that nearly half of financial advisory clients have changed advisors or have considered doing so since the start of the pandemic and that portfolio (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Financial Advice Fee Only Financial Planning 246

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 21, 2023

Further, the study identifies the traits of "top performing" firms, which, during the past 5 years, saw nearly triple the client and net organic asset growth compared to other firms.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Clients Numbers Assets 246

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

etf.com) Things to keep in mind when direct indexing a client's portfolio. riabiz.com) The number of CFPs grew some 5% in 2022. (fa-mag.com) (flowfp.com) The IRS has clarified its approach to state rebate payments. wsj.com) Direct indexing Vanguard is planning a bigger push into direct indexing.

Clients 245

Clients Retirement Financial Services Taxes 245

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 5, 2025

In 2022, it was up 104 basis points (total return). It is not intended to be a surrogate for a 60/40 portfolio, although it was close in 2024, and it clearly will not and is not intended to look like the US equity market. The correlation of the portfolio to the S&P 500 isn't that low at 0.64 The results were fascinating.

Portfolio 72

Portfolio Assets Management Government 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 14, 2024

With so much allocated to T-bills, it makes sense that the standard deviations of the barbell portfolios is so much lower. The 2022 results, not captured above are also interesting. We can only get the last 11 months of 2022 but it is still interesting.

Portfolio Management 98

Portfolio Management Portfolio Management Taxes 98

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 5, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that customer arbitration claims related to the SEC's Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI) nearly doubled between 2022 and 2023, suggesting that greater awareness among investors of the increased standards for broker-dealers and their (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Fee Only Clients Investments 246

Calculated Risk

JULY 22, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.23% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.23% as of June 30, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 115,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Numbers 162

Numbers Portfolio Government Planning 162

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Jim Bianco, Chief Strategist at Bianco Research, and His firm has been providing objective and unconventional research and commentary to portfolio managers since 1990, and it is top rated amongst institutional traders. It’s a state program.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 19, 2024

The Trinity Replication captures some of the effect of the market longer term, maybe enough, maybe not enough, you can look at the other post to get more numbers, but that is what real diversification looks like. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns.

Portfolio 93

Portfolio Accounting Clients Marketing 93

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Discipline Funds

APRIL 19, 2023

This piece was inspired by this fantastic Josh Brown rant on CNBC about how the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio isn’t dead. The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. Let’s put some numbers to this to explain why. Give it a watch. These are mostly quibbles applicable to specific investors.

Portfolio 105

Portfolio Math Assets Management 105

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 18, 2025

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.40% as of January 31, 2025.

Numbers 133

Numbers Portfolio Government Planning 133

Carson Wealth

MAY 20, 2024

April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. Broad commodity prices are not surging like they did in 2022 (oil prices have fallen close to 10% since early April), which means a commodity-driven supply shock is not in the cards for now. That’s similar to the pace of 2019.

Numbers 96

Numbers Marketing Marketing Insurance 96

The Big Picture

JUNE 21, 2023

Their numbers are few – they are the exception that proves the rule. of publicly traded companies that put up those giant performance numbers over an extended period of time. A portfolio of passive low-cost indexes should make up the core of your holdings. John Neff, Julian Robertson, and Will Danoff round out the list.

Management 312

Management Investing Investments Numbers 312

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 21, 2025

A fund like GAA seems like it could be looked to as a single fund portfolio. I put the following together to try to put the single fund portfolio idea into context. Portfolio 5 does give up CAGR versus VBAIX and PRPFX but the volatility is a good bit lower than the others and the drawdowns have been considerably lower than the others.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Portfolio Assets Numbers 52

David Nelson

JANUARY 3, 2023

Investors need to do their own due diligence and perform a full ORM review of their portfolio and its ability to navigate the many challenges we face at the start of a new year. The number of job openings could come in below 10 million but would still be elevated in comparison to pre-pandemic levels. Growth vs Value 2022.

Risk Management 98

Risk Management Portfolio Management Valuation 98

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Austin Goolsbee. You’ll remember as I came into the Fed, I started the very beginning of, of 2023 in December of 2022. I think number one. So, so you have the population growing, you still have fairly, uh, decent immigration numbers.

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Resilience is Core to Sustainable Portfolio Construction. Wed, 09/21/2022 - 10:50. While the old adage “only time will tell” generally refers to a future outcome, it is apropos of our belief that a truly sustainable portfolio must consist of businesses that have proven to be resilient under a variety of macroeconomic circumstances.

Portfolio 86

Portfolio Manufacturing Investments Investing 86

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 29, 2025

First up, Phillip Toews who runs an asset management shop and who wrote a book about about behavioral portfolio construction wrote about understanding market history and a section on how to build robust portfolio that reads like he could have outsourced that part of the article to me. That is buying low.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Management Risk Management Distribution 59

Calculated Risk

JULY 18, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.81% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.85% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.81% as of June 30, 2022.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Government Numbers 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

First Meb Faber and Michael Gayed had a podcast that covered endowment style and permanent portfolio among other things. It seems like many endowments along with other types of sophisticated pools of capital are Permanent Portfolio inspired as Jason Buck said a couple of months ago. I believe there is a lot of overlap between the two.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Numbers Management Taxes 52

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

bloomberg.com) Bitcoin is at its highest level since June 2022. ft.com) Why where investors mark the portfolios can be all over the place. apricitas.io) There are a near-record number of housing units currently under construction. Markets The FTSE 100 Index has risen above 8,000 points for the first time ever.

Financial Advising 147

Financial Advising Engineering Valuation Retail 147

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

He co-chairs a number of the asset management investment committees. So I interviewed with a bunch of banks, got a number of job offers by the end of the week, and joined Goldman Sachs in October 1998. I ended up being hired onto the high yield desk as a research analyst and did that for a number of years, a couple of years.

Assets 299

Assets Clients Investing Investments 299

The Chicago Financial Planner

FEBRUARY 3, 2022

Today’s decline is on top of high levels of market volatility that we’ve seen so far in 2022. My thoughts on how investors should react to this type of stock market decline haven’t changed since I first wrote this post a number of years ago. Proper diversification is great way to reduce investment risk. Go shopping

Asset Allocation 190

Asset Allocation Financial Planner Marketing Marketing 190

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 22, 2023

With that preamble, I started thinking about the 75/50 portfolio that I first started writing about during the Financial Crisis. I've mentioned 75/50 a couple of times in passing but the big idea was to create a portfolio that captures 75% of the upside of the equity market with only 50% of the downside. ARBFX 3.7%

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Asset Allocation Accounting Management 74

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.29% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.31% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.29% as of October 31, 2023.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Numbers 130

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

To find out more, I speak with Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, leading the firm’s investment strategy team in the construction of equity Indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset Model Portfolios. So his own portfolio started selling the S&P 500 and buying value.

Investments 296

Investments Investing Valuation Portfolio 296

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 22, 2025

I backtested as follows with Portfolio 3 below being Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). MBXIX added the best long term result but QSPIX had the best performance in 2022. The backtest assumes the new RDMIX would be the core holding of a portfolio but I didn't find anywhere that talked about how to position the fund.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Portfolio Assets Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Torsten Slok blogged about how ineffective bonds have been in terms of providing any return or diversification benefits lately in the context of a 60/40 portfolio. The third portfolio is just the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). Despite all the leverage, Portfolio 1 has a very smooth ride including up a lot in 2022.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Assets Management 52

Good Financial Cents

OCTOBER 5, 2022

Ad Build a portfolio through a unique investing experience. And like a growing number of investment apps, Webull also accommodates trading in cryptocurrencies. That means once your portfolio has been created, it provides complete management of your account. Ad Build a portfolio through a unique investing experience.

Accounting 98

Accounting Budgeting Investing Investments 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 9, 2025

A portfolio strategy that goes narrower than a couple of broad based index funds probably has some exposure to dividend stocks already so the decision about whether to make any changes can be moot, you already have some exposure. To be clear, Portfolio 3 does use the portable alpha approach, it is leveraged by 40%.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Numbers Insurance Taxes 52