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2022 Numbers Portfolio 
The Big Picture
MARCH 3, 2023
Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.
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The Big Picture
MAY 5, 2023
Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
APRIL 3, 2024
You can see that 60/40 equities/managed futures stayed close to 60/40 equities/bonds at a time when managed futures was doing poorly and then pulled ahead in recent years including going up 3.25% in 2022. 90/40 had a higher CAGR than traditional 60/40 but lower than 60% equities/40% managed futures in Portfolio 3.
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Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 20, 2023
Also in industry news this week: While the number of RIA M&A deals increased in 2022, the size of these deals declined, perhaps reflecting challenging market and economic headwinds A recent survey suggests that nearly half of financial advisory clients have changed advisors or have considered doing so since the start of the pandemic and that portfolio (..)
Nerd's Eye View
JULY 21, 2023
Further, the study identifies the traits of "top performing" firms, which, during the past 5 years, saw nearly triple the client and net organic asset growth compared to other firms.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 13, 2023
etf.com) Things to keep in mind when direct indexing a client's portfolio. riabiz.com) The number of CFPs grew some 5% in 2022. (fa-mag.com) (flowfp.com) The IRS has clarified its approach to state rebate payments. wsj.com) Direct indexing Vanguard is planning a bigger push into direct indexing.
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The Big Picture
MARCH 13, 2024
To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Jim Bianco, Chief Strategist at Bianco Research, and His firm has been providing objective and unconventional research and commentary to portfolio managers since 1990, and it is top rated amongst institutional traders. It’s a state program.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
JUNE 14, 2024
With so much allocated to T-bills, it makes sense that the standard deviations of the barbell portfolios is so much lower. The 2022 results, not captured above are also interesting. We can only get the last 11 months of 2022 but it is still interesting.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 5, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that customer arbitration claims related to the SEC's Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI) nearly doubled between 2022 and 2023, suggesting that greater awareness among investors of the increased standards for broker-dealers and their (..)
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
APRIL 19, 2024
The Trinity Replication captures some of the effect of the market longer term, maybe enough, maybe not enough, you can look at the other post to get more numbers, but that is what real diversification looks like. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns.
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Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 4, 2023
People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other.
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Carson Wealth
MAY 20, 2024
April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. Broad commodity prices are not surging like they did in 2022 (oil prices have fallen close to 10% since early April), which means a commodity-driven supply shock is not in the cards for now. That’s similar to the pace of 2019.
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Discipline Funds
APRIL 19, 2023
This piece was inspired by this fantastic Josh Brown rant on CNBC about how the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio isn’t dead. The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. Let’s put some numbers to this to explain why. Give it a watch. These are mostly quibbles applicable to specific investors.
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The Big Picture
JUNE 21, 2023
Their numbers are few – they are the exception that proves the rule. of publicly traded companies that put up those giant performance numbers over an extended period of time. A portfolio of passive low-cost indexes should make up the core of your holdings. John Neff, Julian Robertson, and Will Danoff round out the list.
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David Nelson
JANUARY 3, 2023
Investors need to do their own due diligence and perform a full ORM review of their portfolio and its ability to navigate the many challenges we face at the start of a new year. The number of job openings could come in below 10 million but would still be elevated in comparison to pre-pandemic levels. Growth vs Value 2022.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 19, 2022
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022.
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Brown Advisory
SEPTEMBER 21, 2022
Resilience is Core to Sustainable Portfolio Construction. Wed, 09/21/2022 - 10:50. While the old adage “only time will tell” generally refers to a future outcome, it is apropos of our belief that a truly sustainable portfolio must consist of businesses that have proven to be resilient under a variety of macroeconomic circumstances.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
DECEMBER 22, 2023
With that preamble, I started thinking about the 75/50 portfolio that I first started writing about during the Financial Crisis. I've mentioned 75/50 a couple of times in passing but the big idea was to create a portfolio that captures 75% of the upside of the equity market with only 50% of the downside. ARBFX 3.7%
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The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 7, 2024
To find out more, I speak with Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, leading the firm’s investment strategy team in the construction of equity Indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset Model Portfolios. So his own portfolio started selling the S&P 500 and buying value.
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The Big Picture
MAY 9, 2023
He co-chairs a number of the asset management investment committees. So I interviewed with a bunch of banks, got a number of job offers by the end of the week, and joined Goldman Sachs in October 1998. I ended up being hired onto the high yield desk as a research analyst and did that for a number of years, a couple of years.
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Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 16, 2023
bloomberg.com) Bitcoin is at its highest level since June 2022. ft.com) Why where investors mark the portfolios can be all over the place. apricitas.io) There are a near-record number of housing units currently under construction. Markets The FTSE 100 Index has risen above 8,000 points for the first time ever.
The Chicago Financial Planner
FEBRUARY 3, 2022
Today’s decline is on top of high levels of market volatility that we’ve seen so far in 2022. My thoughts on how investors should react to this type of stock market decline haven’t changed since I first wrote this post a number of years ago. Proper diversification is great way to reduce investment risk. Go shopping
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
MARCH 29, 2024
Return Stacked ETFs wrote a short paper in support of their ETF suite about how to incorporate return stacking into a portfolio. For anyone new, return stacking, also known as capital efficient, involves leverage to build a diversified portfolio. The idea is not that you would put 100% of a portfolio into that fund.
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Good Financial Cents
OCTOBER 5, 2022
Ad Build a portfolio through a unique investing experience. And like a growing number of investment apps, Webull also accommodates trading in cryptocurrencies. That means once your portfolio has been created, it provides complete management of your account. Ad Build a portfolio through a unique investing experience.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
FEBRUARY 20, 2024
I replicated Corey's idea with Portfolio number 2 as follows. Below, I compared it to VBAIX and I built Portfolio 3 that I think delivers almost the same thing as Corey's idea. Both Portfolio's 2 and 3 had a little better growth with a little lower volatility. That nets out to 60/40 plus the free 10% going to ARBIX.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
APRIL 10, 2024
There is of course the unpleasant reality that some number of people buying in will die right after the cutoff to sell getting nothing or almost nothing out of it and surrendering their investment. If you have a combined $40,000 benefit, that's like having another $1 million in your portfolio. The relevance ties into asset allocation.
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Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 17, 2022
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.69% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.72% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.69% as of September 30, 2022.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
SEPTEMBER 26, 2023
First on Monday's post about using return stacking to slightly increase the retirement withdrawal rate, I forgot about the WisdomTree Core Efficient Plus Fund (NTSX) which is leveraged up such that 67% in that fund equals 100% into a 60/40 portfolio like the Vanguard Balanced Income Fund (VBAIX).
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Calculated Risk
JANUARY 23, 2023
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of December 31, 2022.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
AUGUST 1, 2024
I will lay out a portfolio concept that is hopefully robust when compared to more standard benchmarks. If MAXI had been flat, the portfolio would have lagged by about 5%. And of course BLNDX in addition to some of the equity allocation also adds managed futures to the portfolio. ARBIX's worst year was 2022 when it dropped 0.54%.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
APRIL 17, 2024
The idea of building an All-Weather portfolio of course has its appeal. The basic idea is to be much less volatile than the broad market or the typical 60/40 portfolio. It raises the question though of how much performance should an investor expect or be willing give up for the potential emotional comfort of an All-Weather portfolio.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
MAY 19, 2024
The post starts with looking at a scenario where an economic downturn occurs and someone gets laid off from their job while their investment portfolio gets cut in half. He says his portfolio is constructed "in such a way that it might limp along or be flat during expansion, but explode higher during recessions." for the same period.
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Calculated Risk
AUGUST 15, 2022
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.74% in July The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.81% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.74% as of July 31, 2022.
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Walkner Condon Financial Advisors
FEBRUARY 27, 2023
Because every bond and bond fund has a duration, those numbers can be a useful tool that you and a financial professional can use to compare bonds and bond funds as you construct and adjust your investment portfolio. For your own portfolio, you should also examine what type of bonds in each of your funds.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
SEPTEMBER 9, 2023
Here's a chart from Portfoliovisualizer where Portfolio 1 is the Seven, Portfolio 2 is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and Portfolio 3 is the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) all YTD. With the weight to BTAL, Portfolio 3 did outperform in 2022 but by less than 200 basis points against both Portfolios 1 and 2.
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Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased by 1 basis point from 0.69% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.70% as of October 31, 2022.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
APRIL 8, 2024
The following chart is tough to look at but it includes most of the symbols he mentioned along with a few others that I am aware set to 2022 when inflation spiked pretty hard. Yahoo had it down 17.01% in 2022 (add back about 4% in distributions). In 2022 it was up 3.70% per Yahoo. Then he mentioned a few symbols.
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Calculated Risk
MAY 15, 2023
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.
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The Big Picture
JULY 10, 2024
I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money , we’re going to discuss evolutionary psychology and what it means for your portfolios. The way we evolved was not to spend and save wisely or to invest using modern portfolio theory. and numbers. Job number one every day is to stay alive. Money’s 3000 years old.
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Carson Wealth
AUGUST 5, 2024
Thursday’s set of economic data saw initial jobless claims rise to their highest level in a year, alongside a weak manufacturing ISM number. Missed in this news flow was a stronger-than-expected productivity number reported Thursday, something we’ve been expecting all year. Stocks fell and bonds rallied as yields fell. Source: St.
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Carson Wealth
JANUARY 8, 2024
So, although last year was quite the run, we need to remember just how bad 2022 was. The last time the S&P gained 20% (2021), stocks moved into a bear market the following year (2022), but the nine years before that (and 10 of the last 11) markets gained after a 20% year. million jobs. While that is lower than the 4.8
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
OCTOBER 10, 2023
There was some interesting reading today looking at various portfolio construction and strategy issues. lagged far behind the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. lagged far behind the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. For the year, that 1.8%
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
AUGUST 5, 2023
The gross numbers aren't that far off but some of those drawdowns look like deathblows. Maybe the 2020 Pandemic Crash was too fast for it's signal and in 2022 it was down almost twice what the S&P 500 was (per Yahoo Finance). Portfolio 1 outperformed in 6 of the 9 years studied with slightly less volatility. billion AUM.
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