Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2023

The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.01% in March 2022. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 1.93% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.04% in February). Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.59% in March from 0.62% in February.

Portfolio 358

Portfolio 358

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

My job is not to give policy advice to the Fed, but to interpret what they are doing and its most likely impact on our portfolios. See also : Glenn Hubbard: Post-pandemic fiscal spending bears much of the blame for US inflation (FT, November 14, 2022). Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world (ECB Forum, June 2022).

Medicine 363

Medicine Medical Economics Economy 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Government 344

Government Portfolio Planning Numbers 344

A Wealth of Common Sense

NOVEMBER 9, 2023

Last year was one of the worst years ever for a 60/40 portfolio of U.S. These are the 10 worst calendar year returns for a portfolio comprising the S&P 500 and 10 year Treasuries going back to 1928: By my calculations, 2022 was the third worst year for. stocks and bonds.

Portfolio 144

Portfolio Media Asset Allocation Assets 144

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

crossingwallstreet.com) The best books Ben read in 2022 including "Die With Zero" by Bill Perkins. awealthofcommonsense.com) A look at the best charts of 2022. safalniveshak.com) The markets were bad in 2022, but things could always be worse. humbledollar.com) Three ways to simplify your portfolio in 2023.

Financial Market 278

Financial Market Portfolio Investments Investing 278

Wealth Management

JANUARY 16, 2024

After 2022, many declared the 60/40 portfolio dead, but the traditional portfolio mix rebounded in 2023, writes Morningstar. BlackRock’s move into the private infrastructure investment space is part of a broader strategy for the asset manager to diversify from its strength in ETFs, according to FundFire.

Investing 262

Investing Investments Wealth Advisor Portfolio 262

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Regardless, it’s a worthwhile exercise to wargame Fed actions, and consider what they might mean to your portfolio and/or personal finances. Previously : Behind the Curve, Part V (November 3, 2022). When Your Only Tool is a Hammer (November 1, 2022). October 7, 2022). Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022).

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2022

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. Concentrated portfolio risk. Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) May 5, 2022. Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) August 11, 2022.

Taxes 334

Taxes Portfolio Management Investing 334

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2023

After a big gap opening, latecomers piled in; many had been sitting on the sidelines following a challenging 2022, while others got panicked out during the 10% October drawdown. The problem is those behaviors are so destructive to a portfolio. and it stops you from messing with your primary portfolio. ~~~ Good investing is boring.

Investments 344

Investments Investing Portfolio Economics 344

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

If only the Fed didn’t do X, our portfolio would have been much better” seems to be a terrible approach to managing assets for clients. Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022. Previously : Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022). June 9, 2022). Blame the Fed For Everything!

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

2022 can be understood as part of that process. through January 4, 2022. But here is the unexpected thing about those predictions: Even if your forecast of future events is correct, the odds are against you capturing it in your portfolio. Beware of Value Traps : Be careful picking through 2022’s refuse-hunting for a bargain.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022. ft.com) The 60/40 portfolio had a historically bad year. finance.yahoo.com) Apple ($AAPL) lost $846 billion in market cap in 2022. marketwatch.com) 2022 was a big year for ETFs, except for a spot Bitcoin ETF. wsj.com) Matt Levine, "What happened at FTX?

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Medical Economics Government 278

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak. The GFC and the pandemic were global phenomena; the 2022 market was the worst since 1981 for a 60/40 portfolio.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

newsletter.rationalwalk.com) Berkshire's portfolio highlights the impact of a few key positive outliers. bonddad.blogspot.com) Real home prices are a touch below the 2022 peak. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Would you invest in Norway's sovereign wealth fund if you could? 2024 results. billion in a share tender offer.

Startup 147

Startup Media Economy Portfolio 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2023

The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.11% in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.04% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.11% in January). This is below the pre-pandemic levels.

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 11, 2024

And on today’s edition of at the money, we’re going to discuss how Wall Street has been using personal health to gain a competitive advantage to help us understand all of this and its implications for your portfolio. How does that show up in our portfolios? Not only does that show up in our portfolios.

Food 147

Food Portfolio Management Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 23, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of December 31, 2022. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Portfolio 262

Portfolio Planning Numbers 262

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. This has enormous ramifications for everything from our portfolios, policies and politics… See also , Failures’ Fallout (Mehlman, August 21, 2021) Teens Spend Average of 4.8

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Markets Four things that mattered for portfolios in 2022. morningstar.com) Gasoline prices are ending 2022 below where they were a year ago. theinformation.com) Books 16 notable finance books from 2022 including "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future" by Sebastian Mallaby. John Mandel.

Financial Advising 225

Financial Advising Media Economy Portfolio 225

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

Those of you looking for income might consider putting fresh money to work building a bespoke muni portfolio, or buying the appropriate muni fund for your circumstances. ( March 3, 2023) 10 Bad Takes On This Market (May 19, 2023) Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022) Secular vs. Cyclical Markets (May 16, 2022) End of the Secular Bull?

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 14, 2024

With so much allocated to T-bills, it makes sense that the standard deviations of the barbell portfolios is so much lower. The 2022 results, not captured above are also interesting. We can only get the last 11 months of 2022 but it is still interesting.

Portfolio Management 98

Portfolio Management Portfolio Management Taxes 98

The Big Picture

APRIL 24, 2023

Within the equity portion of your portfolios, they can provide some measure of diversification. Oversimplifying them into narratives or relying on context-free myths will not serve your portfolio well. Consider 4 geographic regions: The US, the Developed world Ex US, Emerging markets, and Frontier. Markets are complex mechanisms.

Economics 299

Economics Marketing Marketing Portfolio 299

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

This came up yesterday on Portfolio Rescue with Ben Carlson. September 29, 2023) Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022) Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Source : U.S. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases. Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.74% in July The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.81% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.74% as of July 31, 2022.

Portfolio 223

Portfolio Planning Numbers 223

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2022 Inflation Peak : Inflation is structurally out of control and going to remain at high levels for perhaps even years to come. This soon became a widespread belief even as inflation peaked in June 2022 and fell as quickly as it rose.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 3, 2023

Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2022. capitalspectator.com) 2022 was the third worst year for the 60/40 portfolio. awealthofcommonsense.com) The Dow lead the major indices in 2022. in 2022 vs. 2021. ritholtz.com) It's been a long time since international stocks outperformed the U.S.

Startup 242

Startup Valuation Financial Advising Distribution 242

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.69% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.72% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.69% as of September 30, 2022.

Numbers 237

Numbers Portfolio Planning 237

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 15, 2024

What's unique about Mark, though, is how he uses a liability-driven-investing approach to build retirement portfolios and manage sequence of return risk, with a particular focus on using closed end bond funds to generate income needed to cover his client's expenses during the early (and most financially dangerous) years of retirement.

Retirement 130

Retirement Portfolio Management Investments 130

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 27, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) 2022 shows that every portfolio strategy comes under pressure. wsj.com) Intel ($INTC) had a tough 2022 and 2023 isn't looking better. Strategy The investment landscape has completely transformed in the past century. portfoliocharts.com) Why so many investors get caught up in return chasing.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Distribution Valuation Media 245

Abnormal Returns

JULY 31, 2023

investmentnews.com) Portfolio management How to evaluate a client's investment portfolio. theatlantic.com) 2022 saw a jump in investment fraud. (riaintel.com) Creative Planning has inked a custody deal with Goldman Sachs ($GS). riabiz.com) Savvy Wealth is pushing hard on the AI front.

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Estate Planning Portfolio Management Retirement 245

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 19, 2024

Barron's had an article about rebalancing portfolios noting that the run in stocks was a good time to rebalance the equity allocation back down closer to target, whatever that might be and also rebalance down some of the relative winners. Over the years, I've trimmed here and there when holdings get too big relative to the portfolio.

Portfolio 96

Portfolio Taxes Clients Financial Advisor 96

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 11, 2023

Markets How does the 60/40 portfolio perform after big down years? wsj.com) BITO Bitcoin tanked in 2022 but Bitcoin futures ETPs held in there. (wsj.com) Europe Europe has gotten lucky this Winter, weather-wise. economist.com) Belgium and the Netherlands intercepted a record-breaking 160 metric tonnes of cocaine in 2022.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Startup Economy Media 244

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 5, 2025

In 2022, it was up 104 basis points (total return). It is not intended to be a surrogate for a 60/40 portfolio, although it was close in 2024, and it clearly will not and is not intended to look like the US equity market. The correlation of the portfolio to the S&P 500 isn't that low at 0.64 The results were fascinating.

Portfolio 72

Portfolio Assets Management Government 72

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 10, 2024

Every document that considers the facts around any particular asset class will invariably include that disclaimer, but constructing a portfolio consisting of a mix of equities, fixed income, and other assets requires investors and advicers to make some fundamental assumptions around long-term expected returns and correlations between assets.

Asset Allocation 246

Asset Allocation Wealth Accumulation Assets Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg. I have dozens of examples of traders who made the right call for some of the above for all the wrong reasons.

Marketing 304

Marketing Marketing Math Retirement Planning 304

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 12, 2022

allstarcharts.com) The all-weather portfolio has not fared well in 2022. Strategy Sometimes your best trade is a loss. blog.validea.com) Companies Apple ($AAPL) is shifting more production out of China. 9to5mac.com) How Microsoft ($MSFT) could bring VR to the enterprise.

Financial Advising 236

Financial Advising Startup Media Economy 236