The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2023

After a big gap opening, latecomers piled in; many had been sitting on the sidelines following a challenging 2022, while others got panicked out during the 10% October drawdown. The problem is those behaviors are so destructive to a portfolio. and it stops you from messing with your primary portfolio. ~~~ Good investing is boring.

Investing 344

Investing Investments Portfolio Economics 344

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

If only the Fed didn’t do X, our portfolio would have been much better” seems to be a terrible approach to managing assets for clients. Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022. Previously : Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022). June 9, 2022). Blame the Fed For Everything!

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

2022 can be understood as part of that process. through January 4, 2022. But here is the unexpected thing about those predictions: Even if your forecast of future events is correct, the odds are against you capturing it in your portfolio. Beware of Value Traps : Be careful picking through 2022’s refuse-hunting for a bargain.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022. ft.com) The 60/40 portfolio had a historically bad year. finance.yahoo.com) Apple ($AAPL) lost $846 billion in market cap in 2022. marketwatch.com) 2022 was a big year for ETFs, except for a spot Bitcoin ETF. wsj.com) Matt Levine, "What happened at FTX?

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Medical Economics Media 279

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak. The GFC and the pandemic were global phenomena; the 2022 market was the worst since 1981 for a 60/40 portfolio.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2022 Inflation Peak : Inflation is structurally out of control and going to remain at high levels for perhaps even years to come. This soon became a widespread belief even as inflation peaked in June 2022 and fell as quickly as it rose.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. This has enormous ramifications for everything from our portfolios, policies and politics… See also , Failures’ Fallout (Mehlman, August 21, 2021) Teens Spend Average of 4.8

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Markets Four things that mattered for portfolios in 2022. morningstar.com) Gasoline prices are ending 2022 below where they were a year ago. theinformation.com) Books 16 notable finance books from 2022 including "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future" by Sebastian Mallaby. John Mandel.

Financial Advising 225

Financial Advising Media Economy Portfolio 225

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

Those of you looking for income might consider putting fresh money to work building a bespoke muni portfolio, or buying the appropriate muni fund for your circumstances. ( March 3, 2023) 10 Bad Takes On This Market (May 19, 2023) Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022) Secular vs. Cyclical Markets (May 16, 2022) End of the Secular Bull?

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 14, 2024

With so much allocated to T-bills, it makes sense that the standard deviations of the barbell portfolios is so much lower. The 2022 results, not captured above are also interesting. We can only get the last 11 months of 2022 but it is still interesting.

Portfolio Management 98

Portfolio Management Portfolio Management Taxes 98

The Big Picture

APRIL 24, 2023

Within the equity portion of your portfolios, they can provide some measure of diversification. Oversimplifying them into narratives or relying on context-free myths will not serve your portfolio well. Consider 4 geographic regions: The US, the Developed world Ex US, Emerging markets, and Frontier. Markets are complex mechanisms.

Economics 299

Economics Portfolio Valuation Marketing 299

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

This came up yesterday on Portfolio Rescue with Ben Carlson. September 29, 2023) Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022) Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Source : U.S. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases. Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 3, 2023

Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2022. capitalspectator.com) 2022 was the third worst year for the 60/40 portfolio. awealthofcommonsense.com) The Dow lead the major indices in 2022. in 2022 vs. 2021. ritholtz.com) It's been a long time since international stocks outperformed the U.S.

Startup 242

Startup Valuation Financial Advising Distribution 242

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 8, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” – this week’s edition kicks off with the news that RIA clients of an insurance broker providing Errors & Omissions (E&O) coverage saw a 213% increase in claims paid in 2023, attributed to significant jumps in suitability claims (likely stemming (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Asset Allocation Clients Risk Management 246

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 15, 2024

What's unique about Mark, though, is how he uses a liability-driven-investing approach to build retirement portfolios and manage sequence of return risk, with a particular focus on using closed end bond funds to generate income needed to cover his client's expenses during the early (and most financially dangerous) years of retirement.

Retirement 130

Retirement Portfolio Management Investing 130

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 27, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) 2022 shows that every portfolio strategy comes under pressure. wsj.com) Intel ($INTC) had a tough 2022 and 2023 isn't looking better. Strategy The investment landscape has completely transformed in the past century. portfoliocharts.com) Why so many investors get caught up in return chasing.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Distribution Valuation Media 245

Abnormal Returns

JULY 31, 2023

investmentnews.com) Portfolio management How to evaluate a client's investment portfolio. theatlantic.com) 2022 saw a jump in investment fraud. (riaintel.com) Creative Planning has inked a custody deal with Goldman Sachs ($GS). riabiz.com) Savvy Wealth is pushing hard on the AI front.

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Estate Planning Portfolio Management Retirement 245

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 19, 2024

Barron's had an article about rebalancing portfolios noting that the run in stocks was a good time to rebalance the equity allocation back down closer to target, whatever that might be and also rebalance down some of the relative winners. Over the years, I've trimmed here and there when holdings get too big relative to the portfolio.

Portfolio 96

Portfolio Taxes Clients Financial Advisor 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 19, 2024

We work on theoretical portfolios here all the time that blend in strategies that really are negatively correlated or at least very little correlation. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns. Enduring a bear market is about both, behavior and portfolio construction.

Portfolio 93

Portfolio Accounting Clients Marketing 93

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 11, 2023

Markets How does the 60/40 portfolio perform after big down years? wsj.com) BITO Bitcoin tanked in 2022 but Bitcoin futures ETPs held in there. (wsj.com) Europe Europe has gotten lucky this Winter, weather-wise. economist.com) Belgium and the Netherlands intercepted a record-breaking 160 metric tonnes of cocaine in 2022.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Startup Economy Media 244

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 10, 2024

Every document that considers the facts around any particular asset class will invariably include that disclaimer, but constructing a portfolio consisting of a mix of equities, fixed income, and other assets requires investors and advicers to make some fundamental assumptions around long-term expected returns and correlations between assets.

Asset Allocation 246

Asset Allocation Wealth Accumulation Assets Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg. I have dozens of examples of traders who made the right call for some of the above for all the wrong reasons.

Marketing 304

Marketing Marketing Math Retirement Planning 304

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 12, 2022

allstarcharts.com) The all-weather portfolio has not fared well in 2022. Strategy Sometimes your best trade is a loss. blog.validea.com) Companies Apple ($AAPL) is shifting more production out of China. 9to5mac.com) How Microsoft ($MSFT) could bring VR to the enterprise.

Financial Advising 236

Financial Advising Startup Media Economy 236

The Big Picture

JANUARY 25, 2023

Sources : “Study sheds light on cognitive dissonance in active management Robin Powell TEBI, January 25, 2023 Active fund managers and the rise of Passive investing: epistemic opportunism in financial markets Crawford Spence, Yuval Millo, James Valentine Kings College, 06 Jan 2023 Understanding Communities of Practice: Taking Stock and Moving Forward (..)

Management 306

Management Investing Investments Financial Market 306

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 20, 2023

ritholtz.com) India's stock market held up well in 2022. wsj.com) Don't let your portfolio be driven by strategist forecasts. Markets What a 'breakaway momentum thrust' means for investors. savantwealth.com) Streaming Where Netflix ($NFLX) stands going into the post-Reed Hastings era.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Startup Financial Advising 246

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

Even as inflation peaked in June of 2022 and fell from 9% to 3%, people remained angry. The result of this emphasis on low rates helped capital owners; anything priced in dollars and credit soared, while those that did not have portfolios filled with stocks, bonds, real estate or businesses (e.g., middle and lower classes) struggled.

Government 306

Government Medicine Economy Healthcare 306

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 3, 2023

(ft.com) Strategy When does it make sense to take on duration in your bond portfolio? aaii.com) Some lessons from the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) awealthofcommonsense.com) Index funds have two major advantages. morningstar.com) Berkshire Hathaway Evidence that Warren Buffett has become less verbose over time. shareholder letter.

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Retail Media Sales 243

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2023

mattstoller.substack.com) Fund management Tiger Global wrote down the value of its venture portfolio by 33% in 2022. (semafor.com) Money moves so quickly making it hard to combat a bank run. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) The Fed is a bad bank regulator.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Startup Banking Manufacturing 246

The Big Picture

APRIL 26, 2023

Desmond loved to ask professional portfolio managers “What percentage of stocks would you expect would be making new highs at the top day of the bull market when the Dow Jones was making its absolute high?” He noted that markets get increasingly narrow by cap size (capitalization) as longer secular bull markets approach their ends.

Portfolio Management 288

Portfolio Management Marketing Marketing Portfolio 288

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

etf.com) Things to keep in mind when direct indexing a client's portfolio. riabiz.com) The number of CFPs grew some 5% in 2022. (fa-mag.com) (flowfp.com) The IRS has clarified its approach to state rebate payments. wsj.com) Direct indexing Vanguard is planning a bigger push into direct indexing. forbes.com) A ten-point Medicare primer.

Clients 245

Clients Retirement Financial Services Taxes 245

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 9, 2022

The biz The top podcasts of 2022, per Apple Podcasts. infiniteloopspodcast.com) Frederick Geischen talks lifelong learning with Alix Pasquet III, Managing Partner and portfolio manager at hedge fund Prime Macaya. 9to5mac.com) The case for quitting Spotify ($SPOT).

Portfolio Management 244

Portfolio Management Economics Economy Management 244

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

And when its variability is not accounted for, the quality and resilience of the advice in a client's financial plan can suffer, especially for those with lower portfolio returns and higher probability-of-success expectations.

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Risk Tolerance Retirement Planning Planning 246

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

And when its variability is not accounted for, the quality and resilience of the advice in a client's financial plan can suffer, especially for those with lower portfolio returns and higher probability-of-success expectations.

Retirement 246

Retirement Planning Financial Planning Risk Tolerance 246

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

Similarly, excess fees and overtrading are more likely to hurt our portfolios than crashes. ” See also : Welcome to the UFO wars ( Noahpinion , Feb 14, 2023) Swarmed Navy Destroyer Had Its Bridge Illuminated By Mysterious Drones ( The War Zone , Oct 14, 2022) Glowing Auras and ‘Black Money’: The Pentagon’s Mysterious U.F.O.

Investments 299

Investments Investing Management Insurance 299

The Big Picture

AUGUST 26, 2022

An overlooked indicator shows the US economy actually grew in the first half of 2022 : Gross domestic income (GDI) showed the economy expanded during the first half of the year. Bloomberg ) see also The NY Fed vs Larry Summers : Some pundits were right on high inflation but for the wrong reasons. Financial Times ). • higher, after a 1.8%

Economy 295

Economy Government Accounting Portfolio 295

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 5, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that customer arbitration claims related to the SEC's Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI) nearly doubled between 2022 and 2023, suggesting that greater awareness among investors of the increased standards for broker-dealers and their (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Fee Only Clients Investments 246