Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.

Portfolio 204

Portfolio Numbers Planning Taxes 204

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

This is before we get to the issue of capital gains taxes, which create a hurdle of (minimum) 20% on those pesky profits just to get to breakeven. Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg.

Marketing 304

Marketing Marketing Math Retirement Planning 304

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 19, 2024

Barron's had an article about rebalancing portfolios noting that the run in stocks was a good time to rebalance the equity allocation back down closer to target, whatever that might be and also rebalance down some of the relative winners. Over the years, I've trimmed here and there when holdings get too big relative to the portfolio.

Portfolio 96

Portfolio Taxes Clients Financial Advisor 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 5, 2025

In 2022, it was up 104 basis points (total return). It is not intended to be a surrogate for a 60/40 portfolio, although it was close in 2024, and it clearly will not and is not intended to look like the US equity market. The correlation of the portfolio to the S&P 500 isn't that low at 0.64 The results were fascinating.

Portfolio 72

Portfolio Assets Management Government 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 14, 2024

With so much allocated to T-bills, it makes sense that the standard deviations of the barbell portfolios is so much lower. The 2022 results, not captured above are also interesting. We can only get the last 11 months of 2022 but it is still interesting.

Portfolio Management 98

Portfolio Management Portfolio Management Taxes 98

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

Even as inflation peaked in June of 2022 and fell from 9% to 3%, people remained angry. The Fed began its policy of ZIRP and QE while Congress put forth a puny extension of unemployment insurance and a modest temporary tax cut. The rate of change may have fallen, but everything remains more expensive.

Government 306

Government Medicine Economy Healthcare 306

Integrity Financial Planning

JUNE 12, 2023

As you plan for retirement, it’s important to consider tax optimization strategies to minimize your tax liabilities. Here are three key ways to optimize taxes in retirement, based on information from sources published between 2022 and 2023.

Retirement 92

Retirement Taxes Consulting Financial Planning 92

Good Financial Cents

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

In this guide, we’re going to present the 10 best long-term investment strategies for 2022. The table below provides a quick summary of each of the 10 best long-term investment strategies for 2022, along with the main features and benefits of each. Below is our list of the 10 best long-term investment strategies for 2022.

Investments 109

Investments Investing Retirement Planning Risk Tolerance 109

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

Furthermore, inflation, though down from its peak in early 2022, remains above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% despite the bank's attempts to tamp it down. What's driving many of the economic conditions today are higher interest rates resulting from the Fed's efforts to fight inflation. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 19, 2024

We work on theoretical portfolios here all the time that blend in strategies that really are negatively correlated or at least very little correlation. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns. Enduring a bear market is about both, behavior and portfolio construction.

Portfolio 93

Portfolio Accounting Clients Marketing 93

Fortune Financial

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

The clock is ticking for taxpayers who wish to minimize the taxes they will owe in the spring. The IRS does not tax what you divert directly from your paycheck into your retirement or health savings accounts. In 2022, the limit for a 401(k) plan is $20,500 or $27,000 if you are age 50 or above.

Taxes 98

Taxes Education Retirement Financial Advisor 98

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

My firm RWM uses Canvas for those clients who want their portfolios to reflect their values. The most popular ESG application of direct indexing software has been to remove guns and tobacco from portfolios. It reflects the desire for investors to have their portfolios reflect their personal values. Oct 31, 2023) 4.

Taxes 195

Taxes Portfolio Investments Investing 195

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008-09, the income portion of portfolios has been almost an afterthought. For the decade1 from 2012 to 2022, 10-year Treasuries yielded less than 3% and averaged closer to 2%. Muni bonds were yielding 2-3%, a tax equivalent (depending on the state you lived in and your tax bracket) of ~4-5%.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Government Wealth Management Clients 147

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 14, 2025

Dave Nadig found a potential tax problem in the fine print. Apparently it is not diversified enough to meet RIC, regulated investment company, standards which as Dave tells it would nullify the tax benefits associated with ETFs. Both portfolios have higher returns and lower standard deviations than PRPFX and VBAIX.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Taxes Management Investing 59

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

In the stock market, its anyone with a portfolio or 401k/IRA or trading account. They are why you sometimes owe capital gains taxes on mutual funds you have not yet sold. April 28, 2022). They do not follow the fiduciary rule but instead swap hats on a whim. You probably do not think very often about who your co-investors are.

Accounting 299

Accounting Commission Investments Investing 299

The Big Picture

AUGUST 30, 2023

1 The Executive Summary gives you the flavor of the timing issue: “The persistent gap between the returns investors actually experience and reported total returns makes cash flow timing one of the most significant factors—along with investment costs and tax efficiency—that can influence an investor’s end results.

Assets 243

Assets Investing Investments Taxes 243

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 12, 2025

The idea is that you get the full beta (stocks and bonds) return with just a portion of the portfolio often with futures or some other form of leverage, leaving dollars left over to add alternatives all in pursuit of better nominal returns or better risk adjusted returns. The fourth portfolio more closely aligns with what we do here.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Retail Assets Clients 52

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

2022 marks the 50 th anniversary of the enrollment of students into the first Certified Financial Planner (CFP) course, and in the years since then, financial planning (and the process of creating a financial plan) has changed extensively.

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Certified Financial Planner Financial Planning CFP 245

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

It did very well in the Pandemic Crash but not so well in 2022. From the AQR site , QSPIX "aims to deliver attractive risk adjusted returns with low correlation to traditional stock/bond portfolios by investing in a broad and diversified range of alternative risk premia." TAIL owns puts and intermediate treasuries.

Portfolio 81

Portfolio Management Taxes Marketing 81

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 29, 2025

First up, Phillip Toews who runs an asset management shop and who wrote a book about about behavioral portfolio construction wrote about understanding market history and a section on how to build robust portfolio that reads like he could have outsourced that part of the article to me. That is buying low.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Management Risk Management Distribution 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 22, 2025

Today's post is a continuation from a couple of weeks ago when we looked at model portfolios and talked about differentiation. I found model portfolios from WisdomTree via a Tweet and models from Fidelity via a Bloomberg article. And benchmarked to the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Taxes Clients Management 52

Your Richest Life

JANUARY 27, 2025

Active investing involves a hands-on approach to managing your portfolio. If you are a skilled investor and well-versed in market fluctuations, you may be able to capitalize on quick opportunities, or sell off a security before your portfolio takes a hit. It also means that when the market is down, your portfolio may be down with it.

Investments 52

Investments Investing Risk Tolerance Portfolio 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 21, 2025

A fund like GAA seems like it could be looked to as a single fund portfolio. I put the following together to try to put the single fund portfolio idea into context. Portfolio 5 does give up CAGR versus VBAIX and PRPFX but the volatility is a good bit lower than the others and the drawdowns have been considerably lower than the others.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Portfolio Assets Numbers 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 28, 2024

I would describe the paper as seeking how to use low volatility equities in various ways to replace some or all of a traditional 60% equities/40% bonds portfolio. All three portfolios outperform VBAIX which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio and they do so with lower volatility and better Sharpe Ratios.

Distribution 52

Distribution Asset Allocation Portfolio Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 2, 2025

As is often the case for this subject, someone talked about building a dividend portfolio and living off the dividends. The yields of Portfolios 1 and 2 are now higher than SCHD due primarily to XYLD having a higher payout than it used to. Generically, dividends are not tax efficient. They are taxed at ordinary income.

Taxes 52

Taxes Portfolio Assets Accounting 52

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

bloomberg.com) Bitcoin is at its highest level since June 2022. ft.com) Why where investors mark the portfolios can be all over the place. axios.com) Funds Tax efficiency is the secret sauce of ETFs. Markets The FTSE 100 Index has risen above 8,000 points for the first time ever. pragcap.com) Fidelity is hiring!

Financial Advising 147

Financial Advising Engineering Valuation Retail 147

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 25, 2023

Review risk tolerance and current asset allocation strategy It’s important to ensure your clients’ portfolios align with their risk tolerance because taking too much risk can negatively impact their ability to navigate market fluctuations. Suppose they made emotional investment decisions during the market volatility of 2022.

Risk Tolerance 102

Risk Tolerance Retirement Planning Asset Allocation Retirement 102

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

First Meb Faber and Michael Gayed had a podcast that covered endowment style and permanent portfolio among other things. It seems like many endowments along with other types of sophisticated pools of capital are Permanent Portfolio inspired as Jason Buck said a couple of months ago. I believe there is a lot of overlap between the two.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Numbers Management Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 30, 2025

It was no more valid in 2023 as it was in 2022. It just so happens that 2022 was a year that it went down a lot. A portfolio with an enormous weighting to one or two broad based factors is not really what I do but it clearly can work but just like any other strategy you can find, it won't always be optimal.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Asset Allocation Marketing Marketing 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 3, 2024

Portfolio 2 is 100% to Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. The portfolio stats are across the board better than VBAIX. With 75% in T-bills as constructed, the portfolio is pretty resistant to an adverse sequence of returns. Looking annually it is a little choppier. For XYLD it is 5.94

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Taxes Marketing Marketing 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 22, 2023

With that preamble, I started thinking about the 75/50 portfolio that I first started writing about during the Financial Crisis. I've mentioned 75/50 a couple of times in passing but the big idea was to create a portfolio that captures 75% of the upside of the equity market with only 50% of the downside. ARBFX 3.7%

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Asset Allocation Accounting Management 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 26, 2023

Where I talk about portfolios that are simplicity hedged with a little complexity, while the simplicity is usually cheap, hopefully the complexity, although probably expensive in nominal terms, is also cheap versus the benefit delivered to the portfolio. Having almost half the portfolio in funds that cost 1.5-2%

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Accounting Marketing Marketing 74

Validea

MARCH 7, 2025

Key Criteria for Stock Selection To find small, fast-growing companies, this strategy evaluates stocks based on a diverse set of fundamental metrics: Profit Margins A minimum after-tax profit margin of 7% is required, ensuring the company maintains strong profitability within its industry. annual return (477% cumulative).

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Sales Investments Investing 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 26, 2025

The article was thin but there was a reference to his "holy grail" of 10-15 uncorrelated assets in portfolio construction. We've looked at this a couple of times, it is interesting of course and actually having 10-15 uncorrelated assets in a portfolio would hit the mark for diversifying your diversifiers.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Assets Clients Management 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 18, 2025

A portfolio that goes narrower than an S&P 500 500 or total market fund probably has some exposure to low vol, dividends and the others. I took what he was saying to be expressed as follows in a portfolio. And compared to just VBAIX in Portfolio 2 The longer term result is interesting.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 22, 2025

I backtested as follows with Portfolio 3 below being Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). MBXIX added the best long term result but QSPIX had the best performance in 2022. The backtest assumes the new RDMIX would be the core holding of a portfolio but I didn't find anywhere that talked about how to position the fund.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Portfolio Assets Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Torsten Slok blogged about how ineffective bonds have been in terms of providing any return or diversification benefits lately in the context of a 60/40 portfolio. The third portfolio is just the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). Despite all the leverage, Portfolio 1 has a very smooth ride including up a lot in 2022.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Assets Management 52