Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 452,990 in the year ending December 2023, compared with 387,721 cases in the previous year. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 452,990 in the year ending December 2023, compared with 387,721 cases in the previous year. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 16.8 Business filings rose 40.4

Economy 331

Economy 331

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

Freddie's rate is down slightly year-over-year from 0.55% in September 2023. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.54% in September 2023. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.54%, up from 0.52% August. This is below the pre-pandemic lows.

264

264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 24, 2025

above the December 2023 sales rate. Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. year-over-year compared to December 2023. million in 2023, and the lowest level since 1995. million in 2023, and the lowest level since 1995.

Sales 232

Sales 232

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 24, 2025

million in December 2023). months in December 2023. above the December 2023 sales rate. year-over-year (blue) in December compared to December 2023. Year-over-year, sales swelled 9.3% (up from 3.88 Total housing inventory registered at the end of December was 1.15 million units, down 13.5% from November but up 16.2%

Sales 256

Sales 256

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2025

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red). in December compared to December 2023. The YoY decrease in December total starts was mostly due to a difficult comparison to starts in December 2023. compared to 2023. Total starts were down 4.4%

263

263

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

from last September [2023], when the state backed a deal for the increased wages.” The crux of EPI’s new claim is this: Since the passage of AB 1228 in September 2023, Californias privately-owned fast food restaurants5 have lost -6,166 jobs (-1.1%) through June 2024 (the latest available data). [Ed. to only 19.5%

Food 306

Food Math Numbers Economics 306

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in December 2023, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in December 2023, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

232

232

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

percent above the December 2023 estimate of $2,101.3 billion spent in 2023. From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during December 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.2 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised November estimate of $2,180.3

236

236

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2024

percent in Q3 2023 to 0.45 The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year from 0.49 percent in Q3 2024 (red) and remains historically low.

277

277

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2025

in November 2023. in November 2023. I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November, up from 3.7% Currently the FOMC is projecting the unemployment rate will increase to the 4.2% range in Q4 2025.

Economics 272

Economics Sales Investing Investments 272

Calculated Risk

MARCH 13, 2025

homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 61% of all properties) saw home equity increase by about $4,100 between Q4 2023 and Q4 2024, which is less than the gain of $6,000 in Q3 2023. The report shows that U.S. Quarter-over-quarter, the total number of mortgage residential properties with negative equity increased by 9.3%

Numbers 191

Numbers Government Accounting Marketing 191

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

The average annual property insurance premium among mortgaged single-family homes rose by a record $276 (+14%) to $2,290 in 2024 Thats the largest single-year increase on record dating back to 2013 when ICE began tracking the metric, and when stacked on top of the $245 (14%) increase seen in 2023 caps off a 61% ($872) increase over the past 5 years (..)

Insurance 191

Insurance Taxes 191

Wealth Management

JULY 18, 2024

After a rough 2022 of negative growth, many independent RIAs rebounded last year, with a median organic growth rate of 5%, according to Schwab’s RIA Benchmarking report.

289

289

Calculated Risk

MARCH 14, 2025

The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) was increased 6% YOY from $747 million in Q4 2023 to $790 million in Q4 2024. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs. This is still historically extremely low. There is much more in the article.

Insurance 191

Insurance Banking Numbers 191

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 20, 2025

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! Inventory was up 24.8% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 23.6%), and down 23.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.3%).

264

264

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

in November and December 2023. Closed sales in January were mostly for contracts signed in November and December when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.81% and 6.72%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in November, but down from the average rate of 7.1%

Marketing 261

Marketing Marketing Sales Numbers 261

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 18, 2024

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red). in November compared to November 2023. The YoY decrease in November total starts was a combination of further weakness in multi-family starts and a difficult comparison to starts in November 2023.

147

147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2025

There were five bank failures in 2023, however 3 of the failures were larger banks: First Republic Bank, San Francisco, CA, Signature Bank, New York, NY, Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, CA. There were four bank failures in 2024. The first graph shows the number of bank failures per year since the FDIC was founded in 1933.

Banking 258

Banking Numbers 258

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The shift to a new interest rate environment added more fuel to the fire, pushing REIT total returns up 16.8% in the third quarter alone.

305

305

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 20, 2025

million, down 2.9% (343,156 carloads) from 2023 and down 2.3% (265,491 carloads) from 2022. Carloads excluding coal, on the other hand, rose in 2024 up 1.4%, or 117,264 carloads, over 2023 and their third year-over-year gain in the past four years. million units) over 2023. million units) over 2023. carloads were 11.34

162

162

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 6, 2024

Purchase application activity is up about 4% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 13% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 2% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Marketing 284

Marketing Marketing 284

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2024

For more details on Census updated NIM methodology, see Census Bureau Improves Methodology to Better Estimate Increase in Net International Migration Below are some tables comparing the Vintage 2024 population estimates with the Vintage 2023 population estimates.

Numbers 173

Numbers 173

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 20, 2024

Purchase application activity is up about 9% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 10% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 1% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Sales 302

Sales Marketing Marketing 302

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

percent) from 2023. The increase primarily occurred due to one-time events in 2023 and 2024 that led to lower noninterest expense (down $8.5 The increase primarily occurred due to one-time events in 2023 and 2024 that led to lower noninterest expense (down $8.5 percent, down 8 basis points from 2023. billion, up $14.1

Numbers 162

Numbers Banking Assets Portfolio 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 12, 2025

Purchase application activity is up about 23% from the lows in late October 2023 and is only 2% above the lowest levels during the housing bust. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 4% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Government 264

Government Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

Applications were significantly higher than a year ago by most measures, but this was compared to the week of Thanksgiving 2023, which was a week earlier than this year’s holiday.”. Purchase application activity is up about 22% from the lows in late October 2023 and is close to the lowest levels during the housing bust. percent from 6.90

Economy 173

Economy Sales Marketing Marketing 173

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

From Intercontinental Exchange (ICE): • Home price growth edged slightly higher in October to +3.0% (from +2.9%

Numbers 147

Numbers Sales 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2024

railroads fell 3.5% (31,101 carloads) in March 2024 from March 2023, their third straight monthly decline. In the first quarter of 2024, total carloads were down 4.2%, or 122,088 carloads, from the same period in 2023. Carloads in 2022, 2023 and 2024: In March, total originated U.S. Total originated carloads on U.S. million).

306

306

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2024

percent above the November 2023 estimate of 611,000. Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. percent above the revised October rate of 627,000 and is 8.7

Sales 264

Sales 264

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

from September 2023. from September 2023. After two years of sluggish home sales in 2023 and 2024, existing-home sales are forecasted to rise to 4.47 The Northeast PHSI expanded 6.5% from last month to 65.6, The Midwest index surged 7.1% in September, identical to the previous year. The South PHSI improved 6.7%

Sales 173

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2025

growth recorded in the same month of 2023. Nevertheless, the cooling home price growth trend is expected to continue well into 2025 partly due to the base effect and comparison with strong early 2023 appreciation and partly because of the expectations of higher mortgage rates over the course of 2025, Hepp continued.

162

162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2024

Inventory bottomed in mid-February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, and inventory is now up 12.6% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 30.9%), and down 35.9% Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.

338

338

Wealth Management

AUGUST 20, 2024

Schwab’s Lisa Salvi shares insights from the firm’s annual benchmarking report, revealing how top-performing RIAs are driving significant organic growth amidst industry challenges.

262

262