Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

police killed more people in 2023 than they have in a decade. theguardian.com) The homicide rate fell sharply in 2023. washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. awealthofcommonsense.com) Where Q4 2023 GDP is tracking. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 290

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 290

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Economy, State by State (November 22, 2023) Can Economists Predict Recessions? Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Crosscurrents of these types are not uncommon in a world that is rife with shades of grey… ) GDP for the first quarter of 2023 was 1.1% – lower than Wall Street’s 2.0% Of the 50 states in the Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes for March 2023, only one — Alaska — is negative.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

alphaarchitect.com) Hong Kong went from a standout on economic freedom to laggard. cato.org) Some of the best books of 2023 including "Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis" by Scott Patterson. (alphaarchitect.com) The Achilles heel of momentum strategies is tail risk. capitalspectator.com)

Economics 291

Economics Portfolio Marketing Marketing 291

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2023

Note: We deploy many of these solutions at RWM that take advantage of our knowledge of behavioral economics.) The Satellite is whatever personal stink you wanna decorate that tree with: Maybe you’re a fan of venture capital or private equity; perhaps you think India is the next great economic powerhouse; AI?

Investing 344

Investing Investments Portfolio Economics 344

Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 20, 2023

The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for March dropped to 108.4 from February's revised figure of 109.7, marking the 12th consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since November 2020. Today's reading represented a 1.2% month-over-month decline, worse than the forecasted 0.6%

Economics 131

Economics 131

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

ft.com) A review of the biggest crypto-related court cases in 2023. papers.ssrn.com) An aging workforce need not reduce economic growth. theatlantic.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media 100 notable books of 2023 including 'The Battle of Ice and Ink' by Darrell Hartman.

Financial Advising 282

Financial Advising Economics Insurance Media 282

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

Markets Mortgage rates are back to early 2023 levels. pnas.org) Economics Has the economics profession gotten too insular? econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. axios.com) Nvidia ($NVDA) dominates the list of the biggest single-day market cap moves. humbledollar.com) ETFs What's left to be ETF'd?

Marketing 276

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Media 276

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

axios.com) Why did macroeconomists get 2023 so wrong? bloomberg.com) Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'How much will wages increase in 2024?' newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Some of Ben's favorite books from 2023 including "Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow" by Gabrielle Zevin. nytimes.com)

Marketing 265

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 265

The Big Picture

MAY 24, 2023

This week saw the release of the Fed’s big annual research report, Economic Well-Being of U.S. August 9, 2022) WFH vs RTO (February 16, 2023) The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022) Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022) Source : Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2022. appeared first on The Big Picture.

Medical 289

Medical Media Economics Retirement 289

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

August 2023 How major asset classes performed in August 2023. capitalspectator.com) A summary of S&P Dow Jones index returns in August 2023. ritholtz.com) Seven economic myths including that the consumer is 'tapped out.' on.spdji.com) Rates The bond market is completely different that it was a year ago.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Retail 265

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Peter Mallouk points out that investments made on days of all-time highs outperform investments made on all other days, Technicians will tell you All-Time Highs are bullish, because there is no selling resistance; behavioral economics suggests it’s bullish due to FOMO and plain old greed.

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investments 349

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

” Let’s hope she is wrong… See also : Greedflation’ revisited (FT, November 16, 2023) Profits in a time of inflation: what do company accounts say in the UK and euro area? by Emily Stewart Vox, Nov 14, 2023 Previously : Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022) Has Inflation Peaked? It’s prices.

Banking 358

Banking Economics Accounting Marketing 358

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

The biz The 25 best podcasts of 2023 including 'The Retrievals' by Susan Burton. theatlantic.com) The best podcasts of 2023 according to people who make podcasts including 'The Town with Matthew Belloni.' vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023.

Economy 263

Economy Economics Management Assets 263

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. Hours on Social Media Per Day (Gallup, Oct 13, 2023) Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic (Bloomberg, Oct. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 9, 2023

nytimes.com) Economics Claudia Goldin has won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics. (wsj.com) CRE Even Texas's office buildings are seeing high vacancy rates. wsj.com) You think moving out of an apartment is a hassle, check out what needs to be done vacating office space.

Financial Advising 288

Financial Advising Media Economics Banking 288

The Big Picture

AUGUST 31, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). The Fed’s favored inflation report was a 2.1% annualized (3 months through July) and 3.3% year-over-year. Here is BEA: Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 billion (less than 0.1 billion (0.8

Food 264

Food Taxes Economics 264

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

As the Peterson Institute noted: In June, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that annual net interest costs would total $663 billion in 2023 and almost double over the upcoming decade, soaring from $745 billion in 2024 to $1.4 Note that this is not hindsight bias , but rather discussions we had repeatedly here in the mid-2010s.

Government 334

Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count. whitecoatinvestor.com) Strategy High yields come with risk.

Financial Advising 295

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 295

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 9, 2024

visualcapitalist.com) Some more charts from 2023 including the drop in IPO activity. axios.com) ETFs The pace of ETF closures picked up in 2023. ft.com) Economy How much is negative news sentiment driving bad economic vibes? Markets The periodic table of commodity returns over the past decade.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 264

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

Markets A look at major asset class returns in 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Long technology, short utilities was the trade in 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Strategy How to read all those market and economic forecasts. morningstar.com) A look at different variants of the 60/40 portfolio.

Financial Advising 273

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 273

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Kick it off right with our first day of the year reads: • Everything Wall Street Got Wrong in 2023 : Stocks were supposed to slump and bonds rally as the Fed drove the US into a recession. Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. Such was 2023. (

Distribution 273

Distribution Economy Clients Management 273

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 24, 2023

(mathinvestor.org) Everything forecasters got wrong in 2023. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. time.com) Books The 16 best books of 2023 including "Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World" by John Vaillant. propublica.org) The case for more U.S. immigration.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Taxes Economy 260

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 23, 2023

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. in April 2023 - and that matched the lowest unemployment rate since 1969! 4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate Near the Lowest Level since at least 1979 This graph, based on data from the MBA through Q3 2023, shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.

Economics 131

Economics 131

The Big Picture

JUNE 1, 2023

Regardless, credit Adam Hale Shapiro, a senior economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, for calling out that his boss is wrong about this issue… Source : How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation? (

Banking 317

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 317

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 29, 2022

awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. bloomberg.com) Ten big economic questions for 2023 including 'What will happen with house prices in 2023?' Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close. capitalspectator.com) The stock market is not a Ponzi scheme.

Financial Advising 275

Financial Advising Startup Food Media 275

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

talkingbiznews.com) Ten books that made us think in 2023 including "Ours Was the Shining Future" by David Leonhardt. theatlantic.com) The best books of 2023 including "The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism" by Tim Alberta. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 265

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in Q4 2023 – up ~36% since the October 2022 lows, and up 24.2% It finished 2023 with 9 consecutive weeks of gains. in 2023, its best performance since 2009. during November 2023. by November of 2023. in November 2023. y/y in April 2023 to 6.7% November 29, 2023) _ 1. for the full year.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. From a purely economic perspective, these first few crashes were meaningless. I had zero dollars in the market and was deep in student loan debt.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

They ignored seasonality; they they mixed the match data from completely different series; they cherry, picked starting and stopped dates for their analysis that bore no relationship to the underlying economic trends. from last September [2023], when the state backed a deal for the increased wages.” to only 19.5% to just 18.8%

Food 260

Food Math Numbers Economics 260

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. Louis Fed, September 26, 2023 Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Short answer: Maybe a quarter ahead (but not always). By Jeremy Majerovitz St.

Economy 298

Economy Banking Economics 298

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2023

bonddad.blogspot.com) Checking in on ten big economic questions for 2023. (timharford.com) Why hasn't remote work freed up time for workers to do fun stuff? bloomberg.com) Economy Still no meaningful uptick in weekly initial unemployment claims. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Wednesday linkfest.

Financial Advising 290

Financial Advising Media Economy Banking 290

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

(wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. calculatedriskblog.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. ritholtz.com) Rate hikes are working.

Assets 272

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 272

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. (vox.com) Elon Musk and Tesla ($TSLA) have a pay problem as a Delaware judge strikes down an earlier agreement. wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers?

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 263

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

Before yesterday’s FOMC meeting, I reiterated my view from July 2023 that this hiking cycle was – or at least should be – over. But this after-the-fact story does not resonate as truth with me, as it looks more like the 10% market correction of October 2023 has ended. Cyclical Markets (May 16, 2022) End of the Secular Bull?

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288