The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Welcome to 2023! Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! Might 2023 be a fourth major March bottom? Have a great 2023 – embrace risk, but avoid unforced errors. billion times.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

They ignored seasonality; they they mixed the match data from completely different series; they cherry, picked starting and stopped dates for their analysis that bore no relationship to the underlying economic trends. from last September [2023], when the state backed a deal for the increased wages.” to only 19.5% to just 18.8%

Food 306

Food Math Numbers Economics 306

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Consumers, meanwhile, have just about burned their way through their post-COVID savings, which was the main driver for GDP growth in 2023.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Another example from last year: In December 2022, housing inventory was very low, but increasing quickly, and house prices were declining month-to-month , and I expected prices to decline slightly in 2023. The red line is for 2023.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% million jobs in 2023.

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Will inventory increase further in 2023? First, a brief history.

Economics 264

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. range in Q4 2023. Will the core inflation rate decrease in 2023, and what will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2023? The key question is will inflation continue to trend down towards the Fed's target in 2023?

Economics 250

Economics Food Sales Investing 250

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. range in Q4 2023. What will the unemployment rate be in December 2023? Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question).

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investing Investments 242

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 2, 2023

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2023: What will happen with house prices in 2023? A brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. What will happen with house prices in 2023?

Sales 241

Sales Economics 241

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. How much will wages increase in 2023? YoY range in 2023 according to the CES. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 and a few predictions: • Question #7 for 2023: How much will wages increase in 2023?

Economics 225

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. How much will job growth slow in 2023? range in Q4 2023. My sense is the FOMC is overly pessimistic, and my guess is there will be something like 400 to 800 thousand jobs added in 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A majority of FOMC participants expect three or even four 25 bp rate hikes in 2023. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023? We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023."

Economy 236

Economy Numbers Economics Sales 236

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 12, 2022

Latest research from WMIQ and Pershing highlights how financial advisory firms are building teams to meet their own expectations for growth in 2023, despite the economic and market head winds.

Economics 236

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Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 309

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2023

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, April 20th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, up from 239 thousand last week.

Manufacturing 257

Manufacturing Sales Banking Numbers 257

Wealth Management

JANUARY 11, 2023

Industry experts expect a difficult economic environment to keep CMBS issuance volume down while existing loans may see higher delinquency rates.

Economics 295

Economics 295

Calculated Risk

MAY 10, 2023

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through March 2023. YoY as of April 2023, down from 7.2% This is a topic I discussed in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2. YoY as of April 2023, up from -1.0% Services were up 6.8% YoY in March. YoY in March.

Food 363

Food Economics 363

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do. Go to the Fed’s website, and search for “ Summary of Economic Projections.”

Economics 325

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 325

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 7, 2023

The key economic report this week is September CPI. -- Monday, October 9th -- Columbus Day Holiday : Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. 2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes , Minutes Meeting of September 19-20, 2023 -- Thursday, October 12th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

Economics 189

Economics Banking Marketing Marketing 189

Calculated Risk

JUNE 13, 2023

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through May 2023. YoY as of May 2023, down from 6.8% This is a topic I discussed in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2. YoY as of May 2023, up from -0.2% Services were up 6.3% YoY in April. YoY in May, down from 5.2%

Food 356

Food Economics 356

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), Second Quarter 2023 and Comprehensive Update Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Economics 312

Economics Government Accounting Investing 312

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 18, 2023

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on information collected on or before January 9, 2023." Overall economic activity was relatively unchanged since the previous report. Only one District reported a slight decline in employment, and one other reported no change in employment levels.

Retail 243

Retail Sales Manufacturing Banking 243

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Incoming economic data are likely to keep the Federal Reserve on hold for now, while uncertainties about economic policy are likely to keep longer-term rates, including mortgage rates, steady at these levels.. percent from 7.09 percent, with points decreasing to 0.62 Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Economics 147

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The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Economy, State by State (November 22, 2023) Can Economists Predict Recessions? Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Economic headwinds have been steadily mounting, and finally led to weakening demand for new projects,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. Note that multi-family billing turned down in September and declined again in October , and if that continues, we will see a downturn in multi-family starts sometime in 2023.

Investing 363

Investing Investments Economics 363

Wealth Management

APRIL 10, 2023

Foreign investors are pausing activity and refocusing on less traditional real estate sectors amid economic uncertainty, reports Commercial Observer. Mortgage Professional America asks whether real estate remains a good investment choice in an inflationary environment.

Economics 257

Economics Investing Investments 257

Calculated Risk

JUNE 6, 2023

today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for April 2023. Numerous economic concerns are contributing to buyer reluctance, including mortgage rate volatility and the related uncertainty surrounding the recent debt-ceiling debate. compared with March 2023. emphasis added This index was up 3.1%

Sales 329

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 329

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Crosscurrents of these types are not uncommon in a world that is rife with shades of grey… ) GDP for the first quarter of 2023 was 1.1% – lower than Wall Street’s 2.0% Of the 50 states in the Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes for March 2023, only one — Alaska — is negative.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 29, 2024

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes). And the office vacancy rate is at a record high, and this will push down office investment.

Commission 289

Commission Manufacturing Investments Investing 289

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bp hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%. Economic projections will be released at this meeting. March 2023 0.0 March 2023 4.0 March 2023 3.0

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2023

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, January 19th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Retail 264

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 264

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. year-to-date compared to the same period in 2023 (due to a sharp decline in multi-family starts).

Sales 147

Sales Investing Investments Commission 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2024

Another quarter of vacancy increase emphasizes the long-term ramifications of hybrid work models, despite positive employment and GDP trends in the current economic cycle. in Q4 2023. Moody’s Analytics reported that the office vacancy rate was at 19.8% in Q1 2024, up from 19.6% This is a new record high, and above the 19.3%

Economics 313

Economics 313

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. on.spdji.com) Some of the best charts of 2023. marginalrevolution.com) ETFs ETFs largely escaped having to issue capital gains in 2023. twitter.com) The tide went out in 2023 exposed all manner of poor prior decisions.

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 284

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 Mar 2023 0.0 Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. Since Q1 real GDP growth was at 1.3%

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363