The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. Of the 50 states in the Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes for March 2023, only one — Alaska — is negative.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? axios.com) Why did macroeconomists get 2023 so wrong? bloomberg.com) Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'How much will wages increase in 2024?' (wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem.

Marketing 265

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 265

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

The biz The 25 best podcasts of 2023 including 'The Retrievals' by Susan Burton. theatlantic.com) The best podcasts of 2023 according to people who make podcasts including 'The Town with Matthew Belloni.' vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023.

Economy 263

Economy Economics Management Assets 263

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. ft.com) Policy Why housing (policy) matters so much for the economy. wsj.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking mid-2% growth. econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 295

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 295

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

August 2023 How major asset classes performed in August 2023. capitalspectator.com) A summary of S&P Dow Jones index returns in August 2023. morningstar.com) Economy The August NFP showed continued growth and a 3.8% ritholtz.com) Seven economic myths including that the consumer is 'tapped out.'

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Retail 265

The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. I have been nurturing a pet thesis as to why higher minimum wages are a net positive for an economy: It acts as a transfer of revenue allocation from low-wage employers and franchisees from Capital to Labor.

Food 364

Food Economy Retail Retirement 364

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

Markets Mortgage rates are back to early 2023 levels. pnas.org) Economics Has the economics profession gotten too insular? washingtonpost.com) Economy Just how restrictive is monetary policy right now? econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. humbledollar.com) ETFs What's left to be ETF'd?

Marketing 276

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Media 276

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

ft.com) A review of the biggest crypto-related court cases in 2023. papers.ssrn.com) An aging workforce need not reduce economic growth. wsj.com) Economy Annie Lowery, "We have a long-standing housing shortage. wsj.com) Economy Annie Lowery, "We have a long-standing housing shortage. And we have a frozen housing market.

Financial Advising 282

Financial Advising Economics Insurance Media 282

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 9, 2024

visualcapitalist.com) Some more charts from 2023 including the drop in IPO activity. axios.com) ETFs The pace of ETF closures picked up in 2023. ft.com) Economy How much is negative news sentiment driving bad economic vibes? Markets The periodic table of commodity returns over the past decade.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 264

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Kick it off right with our first day of the year reads: • Everything Wall Street Got Wrong in 2023 : Stocks were supposed to slump and bonds rally as the Fed drove the US into a recession. Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. Such was 2023. (

Distribution 273

Distribution Economy Clients Management 273

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

(wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. stayathomemacro.substack.com) How the current post-Covid economy resembles the post-WWII economy.

Assets 272

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 272

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

Markets A look at major asset class returns in 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Long technology, short utilities was the trade in 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Strategy How to read all those market and economic forecasts. etf.com) Economy The December NFP report showed continued payroll growth and a 3.7% unemployment rate.

Financial Advising 273

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 273

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. .” 40%) probability of happening. By Jeremy Majerovitz St.

Economy 298

Economy Banking Economics 298

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Q4-over-Q4 in 2023. How much will the economy grow in 2023?

Economy 111

Economy Sales Economics Investing 111

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 29, 2022

awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. wsj.com) Economy Continuing unemployment claims continue to trend higher. bloomberg.com) Ten big economic questions for 2023 including 'What will happen with house prices in 2023?' Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close.

Financial Advising 275

Financial Advising Startup Food Media 275

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Those three options will determine whether or not the equity and bond markets make a bottom now, at some point in 2023, or at some future date beyond.

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in Q4 2023 – up ~36% since the October 2022 lows, and up 24.2% It finished 2023 with 9 consecutive weeks of gains. in 2023, its best performance since 2009. during November 2023. by November of 2023. in November 2023. y/y in April 2023 to 6.7% Flat over 2 years : The S&P 500 gained >12.1%

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2023

bloomberg.com) Economy Still no meaningful uptick in weekly initial unemployment claims. bonddad.blogspot.com) Checking in on ten big economic questions for 2023. (nytimes.com) Work schedules are now all out of step. timharford.com) Why hasn't remote work freed up time for workers to do fun stuff?

Financial Advising 290

Financial Advising Media Economy Banking 290

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 24, 2023

(mathinvestor.org) Everything forecasters got wrong in 2023. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. time.com) Books The 16 best books of 2023 including "Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World" by John Vaillant. shepherd.com) Economy You can't guarantee a soft landing just yet.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Taxes Economy 260

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2023

Markets 10 surprises from 2023, so far, including higher interest rates for longer. bilello.blog) In 2023, tech stocks have snubbed the Fed. vox.com) Economy Will interest rates eventually slow the U.S. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. themessenger.com) America's gun problem, visualized.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Taxes Economy Media 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

talkingbiznews.com) Ten books that made us think in 2023 including "Ours Was the Shining Future" by David Leonhardt. theatlantic.com) The best books of 2023 including "The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism" by Tim Alberta. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 265

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 10, 2023

wsj.com) ETFs 2023 has seen a surge in ETF closures. papers.ssrn.com) Economy Why talks of a Fed rate cut are premature. disciplinefunds.com) The economy has gone from great to good. carsongroup.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. readtrung.com) Why Jensen Huang was so crucial to the success of Nvidia ($NVDA).

Financial Advising 273

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 273

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

(theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 263

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

is in a recession : Even if gross domestic product figures show a shrinking economy, a recession won’t officially have begun unless the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. The economic domino effect has begun, but there is still time to stop it ( Washington Post ). Washington Post ). • Chief Investment Officer ).

Startup 298

Startup Economy Economics Planning 298

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 31, 2023

hypercritical.co) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 2.6% rise in house prices through August 2023. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Just how much is China's economic growth slowing? (om.co) Apple TV+ just doesn't have a big enough library. variety.com) Why Apple ($AAPL) should make its batteries removable.

Assets 261

Assets Financial Advising Media Economy 261

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2023

wsj.com) Why Germany's economic growth is slowing, relative to the rest of Europe. financial-planning.com) Economy Forecasters keep boosting 2023 growth estimates. axios.com) How higher interest rates are going to affect the economy. axios.com) How higher interest rates are going to affect the economy.

Investing 245

Investing Investments Financial Advising Startup 245

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

Laurence Ball, Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins and Research Associate at the National Bureau Of Economic Research, made the case in 2013 that 4% was a more rational target. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. 4 Consider : We had 2% inflation expectations the entire post-GFC era.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 28, 2023

sf.eater.com) Economy Noah Smith, "If there’s one economic measure that has been unprecedentedly bad in the years since the pandemic, it’s real wages." newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media The best TV shows of 2023, so far, including 'The Diplomat.' washingtonpost.com) The best TV shows of 2023, so far, including 'Mrs.

Recruitment 246

Recruitment Financial Advising Media Economy 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 7, 2023

wsj.com) What phrases and words companies stood out in conference calls in 2023? axios.com) Economy Kyla Scanlon, "People are complex and economics doesn’t (can’t!) (axios.com) 30-year mortgage rates have dropped from 8% back to 7%. housingwire.com) Companies P&G ($PG) is still writing down the value of Gillette.

Digital Media 274

Digital Media Electronics Financial Advising Startup 274

Abnormal Returns

MAY 7, 2023

(nytimes.com) Policy How higher minimum wages make for a better economy. npr.org) Economy Catherine Rampell, "Even so, it’s strange that Americans are as dour as they are.Now just imagine how much more bummed out Americans would be if the U.S. economy actually does fall into recession later this year."

Financial Advising 241

Financial Advising Economy Banking Media 241

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 How much will job growth slow in 2023? Or will the economy lose jobs? range in Q4 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023?

Economy 94

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 94

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 6, 2023

Markets Cullen Roche, "This has been one of the more fascinating years in economic and market history." michaelparekh.substack.com) Venture capital Q2 2023 startup data from AngelList show median valuations back to pre-pandemic levels. should let China continue to shoot itself in the (economic) foot. nytimes.com) Why the U.S.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Startup Economics Valuation 246

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

vox.com) Economy Small businesses are finding it easier to hire. wsj.com) The last few years broke a lot of economic indicators. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the first week of 2023. (npr.org) Why isn't PPP fraud a bigger deal? stayathomemacro.substack.com) Wage inequality seems to be declining.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Medical Economics Media 279

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

They ignored seasonality; they they mixed the match data from completely different series; they cherry, picked starting and stopped dates for their analysis that bore no relationship to the underlying economic trends. from last September [2023], when the state backed a deal for the increased wages.” to only 19.5% to just 18.8%

Food 260

Food Math Numbers Economics 260

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

These economies continue to underperform, and we worry about significant out-migration and sustained population loss. Existing Home Sales long-term chart courtesy of Trading Economics. In declining sales environments and economic downturns (now), the Census Department dramatically overstates sales, even if we ignore revisions.

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285