Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs?

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2023." The red line is for 2023.

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Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A majority of FOMC participants expect three or even four 25 bp rate hikes in 2023. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023? We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023." I have us pausing at 5.4 percent."

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. How much will wages increase in 2023? YoY range in 2023 according to the CES. This depends on the Fed (next question) and if the economy slides into a recession. How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023?

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Previously : Slowing U.S.

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023?

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2%

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The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. Of the 50 states in the Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes for March 2023, only one — Alaska — is negative.

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. on.spdji.com) Some of the best charts of 2023. marginalrevolution.com) ETFs ETFs largely escaped having to issue capital gains in 2023. twitter.com) The tide went out in 2023 exposed all manner of poor prior decisions.

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Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

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Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. ft.com) Policy Why housing (policy) matters so much for the economy. wsj.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking mid-2% growth. econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

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Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 2-3, 2023. One such factor was the degree and timing with which cumulative policy tightening restrained economic activity and reduced inflation, with some participants commenting that they saw evidence that the past years' tightening was beginning to have its intended effect.

Economics 347

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Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

August 2023 How major asset classes performed in August 2023. capitalspectator.com) A summary of S&P Dow Jones index returns in August 2023. morningstar.com) Economy The August NFP showed continued growth and a 3.8% ritholtz.com) Seven economic myths including that the consumer is 'tapped out.'

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The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. I have been nurturing a pet thesis as to why higher minimum wages are a net positive for an economy: It acts as a transfer of revenue allocation from low-wage employers and franchisees from Capital to Labor.

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bp hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%. Economic projections will be released at this meeting. Economic projections will be released at this meeting.

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Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

police killed more people in 2023 than they have in a decade. theguardian.com) The homicide rate fell sharply in 2023. washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. papers.ssrn.com) Economy People have nostalgia for a time that never existed. ft.com) Crime U.S.

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Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

Markets Mortgage rates are back to early 2023 levels. pnas.org) Economics Has the economics profession gotten too insular? washingtonpost.com) Economy Just how restrictive is monetary policy right now? econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. humbledollar.com) ETFs What's left to be ETF'd?

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Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Media 275

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? axios.com) Why did macroeconomists get 2023 so wrong? bloomberg.com) Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'How much will wages increase in 2024?' (wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem.

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Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 264

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

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Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

ft.com) A review of the biggest crypto-related court cases in 2023. papers.ssrn.com) An aging workforce need not reduce economic growth. wsj.com) Economy Annie Lowery, "We have a long-standing housing shortage. wsj.com) Economy Annie Lowery, "We have a long-standing housing shortage. And we have a frozen housing market.

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). So, we might be looking at a recession in 2023.

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Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

The biz The 25 best podcasts of 2023 including 'The Retrievals' by Susan Burton. theatlantic.com) The best podcasts of 2023 according to people who make podcasts including 'The Town with Matthew Belloni.' vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023.

Economy 262

Economy Economics Management Assets 262

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

(wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. stayathomemacro.substack.com) How the current post-Covid economy resembles the post-WWII economy.

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Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 271

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. .” 40%) probability of happening. By Jeremy Majerovitz St.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Louis based on information collected on or before October 6, 2023. Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. The near-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable or having slightly weaker growth. Labor market tightness continued to ease across the nation.

Economics 162

Economics Retail Manufacturing Banking 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Now it seems like most forecasts are for a recession in 2023. Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My answer is: Maybe.

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Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2023

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 13-14, 2023. Given the continued strength in labor market conditions and the resilience of consumer spending, however, the staff saw the possibility of the economy continuing to grow slowly and avoiding a downturn as almost as likely as the mild‑recession baseline.

Economics 305

Economics Banking Communication Economy 305

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 29, 2022

awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. wsj.com) Economy Continuing unemployment claims continue to trend higher. bloomberg.com) Ten big economic questions for 2023 including 'What will happen with house prices in 2023?' Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Those three options will determine whether or not the equity and bond markets make a bottom now, at some point in 2023, or at some future date beyond.

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Calculated Risk

AUGUST 16, 2023

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2023. Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the July FOMC meeting was stronger than the June projection. Participants generally noted a high degree of uncertainty regarding the cumulative effects on the economy of past monetary policy tightening.

Economy 245

Economy Banking Economics Marketing 245

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2023

Markets 10 surprises from 2023, so far, including higher interest rates for longer. bilello.blog) In 2023, tech stocks have snubbed the Fed. vox.com) Economy Will interest rates eventually slow the U.S. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. themessenger.com) America's gun problem, visualized.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Economy Taxes Media 246

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Kick it off right with our first day of the year reads: • Everything Wall Street Got Wrong in 2023 : Stocks were supposed to slump and bonds rally as the Fed drove the US into a recession. Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. Such was 2023. (

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2023

bloomberg.com) Economy Still no meaningful uptick in weekly initial unemployment claims. bonddad.blogspot.com) Checking in on ten big economic questions for 2023. (nytimes.com) Work schedules are now all out of step. timharford.com) Why hasn't remote work freed up time for workers to do fun stuff?

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Media Banking Accounting 289

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 9, 2024

visualcapitalist.com) Some more charts from 2023 including the drop in IPO activity. axios.com) ETFs The pace of ETF closures picked up in 2023. ft.com) Economy How much is negative news sentiment driving bad economic vibes? Markets The periodic table of commodity returns over the past decade.

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Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 264