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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do. Go to the Fed’s website, and search for “ Summary of Economic Projections.”

Economics 325
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Slower momentum heading into 2023

Nationwide Financial

Highlights from the Monthly Review for January 2023: The U.S. economy is in the late cycle period with the Fed responding to rapid inflation with a sharp tightening of financial conditions to slow domestic demand. Key Takeaways: Economic Review: Demand for workers supports resilient labor market.

Economy 98
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Weekly Market Insights – December 4, 2023

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

Market sentiment remained positive as the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation showed ongoing signs of softening inflation pressures, boosting hopes that the Fed may be able to end its rate hikes and consider rate cuts sometime next year. 5 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Factory Orders. IRS.gov, March 28, 2023 7.

Marketing 105
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Episode #508: Jim Bianco on “The Biggest Economic Event of Our Lifetime” & The End of the 40-Year Bond Bull Market

Meb Faber Research

Episode #508: Jim Bianco on “The Biggest Economic Event of Our Lifetime” & The End of the 40-Year Bond Bull Market Guest: Jim Bianco is the President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, which offers macro investment research on financial markets.

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Question #6 for 2023: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A majority of FOMC participants expect three or even four 25 bp rate hikes in 2023. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023? We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023."

Economy 94
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Banking crisis overshadowed the data, but inflation remains persistently elevated: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook

Nationwide Financial

The stresses in the banking system and ripple effects in the financial markets even overshadowed the incoming inflation data. Fed officials argue that they can separate changes in interest rates from banking/market/liquidity stresses due to the use of emergency Fed programs. Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.

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2023 economic and market outlook: The narrative shifts

Nationwide Financial

economy appears to be in the late stage of expansion, with strong economic activity but labor and supply chains remain constrained. The labor market is very tight, with a low unemployment rate of 3.7% As of this writing, market expectations call for a path of Fed rate hikes to a range of 5.0-5.25%, Responding to recession risks.