The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t. Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Axios reported yesterday that “2024 will be the U.S.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Kick it off right with our first day of the year reads: • Everything Wall Street Got Wrong in 2023 : Stocks were supposed to slump and bonds rally as the Fed drove the US into a recession. Stay invested. Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S.

Distribution 273

Distribution Economy Clients Management 273

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

The biz The 25 best podcasts of 2023 including 'The Retrievals' by Susan Burton. theatlantic.com) The best podcasts of 2023 according to people who make podcasts including 'The Town with Matthew Belloni.' vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023.

Economy 263

Economy Economics Management Assets 263

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

One of my favorite responsibilities as chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management is the quarterly conference call I do for our clients. I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. 2 Regardless, something is amiss.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

MAY 24, 2023

This week saw the release of the Fed’s big annual research report, Economic Well-Being of U.S. It’s chock full of great charts and analyses, covering everything from Income, Employment, Expenses, Banking and Credit, Housing, Student Loans, Retirement and Investments, and Overall Financial Well-Being. Households in 2022.

Medical 289

Medical Media Economics Retirement 289

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 9, 2023

Strategy The key to successful investing is patience. nytimes.com) Economics Claudia Goldin has won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics. blog.validea.com) Five common mistakes investors make. blogs.cfainstitute.org) When aiming down the middle makes sense. humbledollar.com) Finance Private credit is the new bank.

Financial Advising 288

Financial Advising Media Economics Banking 288

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 9, 2024

visualcapitalist.com) Some more charts from 2023 including the drop in IPO activity. axios.com) ETFs The pace of ETF closures picked up in 2023. etf.com) Dating Match Group ($MTCH) has attracted an activist investor in Elliott Investment Management. ft.com) Economy How much is negative news sentiment driving bad economic vibes?

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 264

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. axios.com) Why Apple ($AAPL) would 'invest' in OpenAI. econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count.

Financial Advising 295

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 295

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 29, 2022

awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. wsj.com) Why American Equity Investment Life ($AEL) is so sought after. Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close. capitalspectator.com) The stock market is not a Ponzi scheme. ft.com) What's behind the exodus from the accounting profession?

Financial Advising 275

Financial Advising Startup Food Media 275

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 24, 2023

(mathinvestor.org) Everything forecasters got wrong in 2023. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. awealthofcommonsense.com) You can only benefit from a stock market recovery if you are invested. daily.jstor.org) The books authors read in 2023 including "Horse" by Geraldine Brooks.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Taxes Economy 260

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) No investor, or investment strategy, is perfect. talkingbiznews.com) Ten books that made us think in 2023 including "Ours Was the Shining Future" by David Leonhardt. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. Strategy What happens after a 20% up year for the stock market?

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 265

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 31, 2023

(wsj.com) Six lessons from William Bernstein's "The Four Pillars of Investing." markets.businessinsider.com) Investors who bought the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust ($GBTC) at a big discount are looking good. rise in house prices through August 2023. om.co) Apple TV+ just doesn't have a big enough library.

Assets 261

Assets Financial Advising Media Economy 261

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2023

Markets 10 surprises from 2023, so far, including higher interest rates for longer. bilello.blog) In 2023, tech stocks have snubbed the Fed. wsj.com) There is no Social Security trust fund to invest. tker.co) Nonresidential investment keeps growing. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Taxes Economy Media 246

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. spyglass.org) Sports The PGA Tour just scored a big, non-Saudi, investment. econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. (vox.com) Elon Musk and Tesla ($TSLA) have a pay problem as a Delaware judge strikes down an earlier agreement.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 263

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theirrelevantinvestor.com) Why you should avoid big investment shifts. wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. ritholtz.com) Rate hikes are working.

Assets 272

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 272

A Wealth of Common Sense

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts: See here for YCharts research on the best-performing ETFs of 2023 See here to register for the Future Proof Retreat in March!

Investments 143

Investments Investing Economics 143

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

Before yesterday’s FOMC meeting, I reiterated my view from July 2023 that this hiking cycle was – or at least should be – over. But this after-the-fact story does not resonate as truth with me, as it looks more like the 10% market correction of October 2023 has ended. Cyclical Markets (May 16, 2022) End of the Secular Bull?

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. But my job is not to give the Fed policy advice, it is instead to provide clients with insight and investment advice. 50% chance ).

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Investing is a humbling practice that requires the practitioner to not only acknowledge their limited understanding of the future but to behave in accordance with that small piece of wisdom.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

UPDATE 4:45pm I see Chartr is on this as well: See Also : Mind the anecdata (Sam Ro, Jan 22, 2023) The American Rescue Plan was the best economic policy in forty years (Claudia Sahm, Dec 7, 2021) Previously : The Plural of Anecdote IS Data (February 4, 2019) Fearing the Dramatic, Complacent for the Mundane (April 29, 2019) Denominator Blindness, (..)

Economics 325

Economics Numbers Planning Investing 325

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% million jobs in 2023.

Economics 90

Economics Economy Sales Commission 90

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Q4-over-Q4 in 2023. How much will the economy grow in 2023?

Economy 111

Economy Sales Economics Investing 111

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

is in a recession : Even if gross domestic product figures show a shrinking economy, a recession won’t officially have begun unless the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. Chief Investment Officer ). The economic domino effect has begun, but there is still time to stop it ( Washington Post ). Washington Post ). •

Startup 298

Startup Economy Economics Planning 298

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 5, 2023

stocks has led to the favoritism of ‘local’ investments over international ones through behavioral biases (e.g., However, despite recent market trends, there is a legitimate case to be made for international diversification – starting with the basic tenet of investing that past performance does not promise future returns.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Portfolio Investments 246

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Falling Real Estate Markets Several major markets have now reached the falling phase of the cycle, characterized by flat or declining prices, limited capital investment, and shrinking housing demand. Phoenix and Riverside-SB have also reversed course quickly, in part due to significant speculative investment that drove prices up quickly.

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

integratinginvestor.com) Will music royalties turn out to be a worthy investment? wsj.com) Finance Private debt funds are on pace to raise more than $200 billion in new capital in 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economy Economic anxiety isn't going anywhere. Alternatives Private market access funds are all the rage.

Asset Allocation 279

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Assets Media 279

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 10, 2024

(awealthofcommonsense.com) The 60/40 portfolio had a big comeback in 2023. entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) Strategy 12 lessons the markets taught investors in 2023 including 'Valuations cannot be used to time markets.' axios.com) Finance Investment grade companies are rushing to issue debt in January.

Financial Advising 174

Financial Advising Valuation Banking Media 174

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 26, 2023

6 This Week: Key Economic Data Thursday: Jobless Claims. Source: Econoday, December 22, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. stock market.

Taxes 105

Taxes Investment Advisor Sales Investments 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Mixed Economic Signals Amid recent signs of a labor market cooling (a hopeful sign for ending rate hikes), last Thursday’s initial jobless claims report showed only a slight increase of 204,000. 6 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. In 2023, the standard mileage rate is 65.5

Marketing 111

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 111

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. What will the participation rate be in December 2023? There are probably a few more people that will return to the workforce in 2023, pushing up the participation rate. Question #7 for 2023: How much will wages increase in 2023?

Economics 115

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 115

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

In his post-announcement press conference, Fed Chair Powell remarked the inflation battle would continue, and upcoming economic data would inform the FOMC’s future rate hike decision. In their economic projections, 12 of 19 Fed officials expect to raise rates once more this year. The Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2023 2.

Marketing 111

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 111

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 30, 2023

1,2,3 Source: YCharts, October 23, 2023 to October 27, 2023. Economic data released on Thursday showed remarkable economic strength, with above-consensus forecast growth in third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and September’s durable goods orders, with only a minor uptick in initial jobless claims. Jobless Claims.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 105

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

Laurence Ball, Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins and Research Associate at the National Bureau Of Economic Research, made the case in 2013 that 4% was a more rational target. I have a pet theory as to why they have been consistently so late: Many economists have misunderstood this entire economic cycle, including inflation.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Dear Mr. Market

MARCH 11, 2023

We’re proud to say that My Portfolio Guide, LLC was the first investment firm to publish a March Madness investing bracket where we share our picks and match them up against each other. Click here or below to enlarge and see the entire bracket for 2023.

Investing 102

Investing Investments Portfolio Assets 102

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Weekly Market Insights: September Stocks Open In Positive Territory Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Falling bond yields–spurred by weak economic data–helped lift stocks to weekly gains. A downward revision of Q2 economic growth and fresh signs of a cooling labor market reversed the recent rise in bond yield.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 105

The Big Picture

APRIL 24, 2023

Third, it is an approach that generally lacks the sort of process essential to good investing. They all have different sensitivities to economic factors like trade, inflation, commodities, and growth. Previously : Observations to Start 2023 (January 3, 2023) Bottoming? Markets are complex mechanisms.

Economics 299

Economics Portfolio Valuation Marketing 299