Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 in early 2023 to 4.3%

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million jobs. million from 4.22

Numbers 310

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 310

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million from 4.07 million from 4.07

Retail 332

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 332

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0

Retail 315

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 315

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Crosscurrents of these types are not uncommon in a world that is rife with shades of grey… ) GDP for the first quarter of 2023 was 1.1% – lower than Wall Street’s 2.0% Of the 50 states in the Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes for March 2023, only one — Alaska — is negative.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

police killed more people in 2023 than they have in a decade. theguardian.com) The homicide rate fell sharply in 2023. washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. washingtonpost.com) The number of American centenarians is set to quadruple. ft.com) Crime U.S.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 289

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. on.spdji.com) Some of the best charts of 2023. marginalrevolution.com) ETFs ETFs largely escaped having to issue capital gains in 2023. twitter.com) The tide went out in 2023 exposed all manner of poor prior decisions.

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 284

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Stock picking is difficult because it requires a number of different skills. ft.com) A review of the biggest crypto-related court cases in 2023. papers.ssrn.com) An aging workforce need not reduce economic growth. theatlantic.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. can still be paid less than minimum wage.

Financial Advising 281

Financial Advising Economics Insurance Media 281

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2023

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. 2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, January 19th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

Retail 263

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 263

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 YoY in December.

Retail 299

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 299

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 in early 2023 to 4.2%

Numbers 275

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 275

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bp hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%. Economic projections will be released at this meeting. March 2023 0.0 March 2023 4.0 March 2023 3.0

Banking 285

Banking Economics Economy Communication 285

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 Mar 2023 0.0 Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

(talkingbiznews.com) Ten books that made us think in 2023 including "Ours Was the Shining Future" by David Leonhardt. theatlantic.com) The best books of 2023 including "The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism" by Tim Alberta. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 264

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

The institutional component was varied, experiencing growth in recreational and education projects, countered by a decline in the number of healthcare and public planning projects. This index suggests a solid pickup in commercial real estate construction into 2023.

Healthcare 312

Healthcare Education Planning Economics 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. -- Tuesday, September 19th -- 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for August. million SAAR. -- Friday, September 22nd -- No major economic releases scheduled. The consensus is for a reading of 50, unchanged from 50 in August.

Sales 170

Sales Manufacturing Economics Numbers 170

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023.

Assets 271

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 271

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 14, 2023

The key economic reports this week are September Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. 12:00 PM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At the Economic Club of New York (ECNY) Luncheon, New York, New York -- Friday, October 20th -- 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for September 2023

Retail 159

Retail Manufacturing Sales Economics 159

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 24, 2023

(mathinvestor.org) Everything forecasters got wrong in 2023. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. time.com) Books The 16 best books of 2023 including "Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World" by John Vaillant. propublica.org) The case for more U.S. immigration.

Financial Advising 259

Financial Advising Media Taxes Economy 259

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. The present era of interest rate normalization is not remotely comparable to those eras. At least, not yet.

Economics 325

Economics Numbers Planning Investments 325

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. (vox.com) Elon Musk and Tesla ($TSLA) have a pay problem as a Delaware judge strikes down an earlier agreement.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 262

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The rest of the numbers are via a St. With these numbers in hand, we can calculate the free money the Fed gives to banks. The current annual rate calculation is $206 billion and rising, not counting expected hikes in December and in 2023. Louis Fed, chart by Mish.

Banking 300

Banking Numbers Economics 300

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 16, 2023

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. -- Monday, December 18th -- 10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2023 (Third estimate). up from -5.9.

Sales 159

Sales Manufacturing Economics Numbers 159

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 11, 2023

The key economic reports this week are October CPI, Retail Sales, and Housing Starts. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2023 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS.

Retail 159

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 159

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. If there was something magical about 2% as the ideal balance between prices and jobs, that would be one thing.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City based on information collected on or before August 28, 2023." Contacts from most Districts indicated economic growth was modest during July and August. Job growth was subdued across the nation.

Manufacturing 296

Manufacturing Transportation Retail Sales 296

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.

Portfolio 203

Portfolio Numbers Planning Taxes 203

The Big Picture

JUNE 2, 2023

Essentially, monthly Non-Farm Payrolls is the net difference between these two groups: The actual number is far smaller and less significant than gets played most publicly. The monthly number ( May 2023 = 339,000) is a tenth or so of the ~1.5% of the 159m total. Is that multi-month trend rising or falling?

Numbers 312

Numbers Valuation Retirement Economics 312

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model. Otherwise, they are going to unnecessarily cause economic damage in their belated attempts to lower inflation. Powell & Co.’s

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Now it seems like most forecasts are for a recession in 2023. Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. So, we might be looking at a recession in 2023. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! My answer is: Maybe.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2024

A modest additional drop this morning brought that number to the lowest level since April 2023. That rally is driven by softer inflation/economic data and an increased willingness on the part of the Fed to consider rate cuts. [

Economics 187

Economics Numbers Marketing Marketing 187