The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 24, 2023

(mathinvestor.org) Everything forecasters got wrong in 2023. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. time.com) Books The 16 best books of 2023 including "Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World" by John Vaillant. propublica.org) The case for more U.S. immigration.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Taxes Economy 260

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

(talkingbiznews.com) Ten books that made us think in 2023 including "Ours Was the Shining Future" by David Leonhardt. theatlantic.com) The best books of 2023 including "The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism" by Tim Alberta. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 265

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. (vox.com) Elon Musk and Tesla ($TSLA) have a pay problem as a Delaware judge strikes down an earlier agreement.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 263

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023.

Assets 272

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 272

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic b t. To ensure we’re looking at the proper vintage data, we’ll use FRED’s sibling, ALFRED, which allows us to pick a point in time and view the then-real-time numbers. maybe just one more graf. Don’t care.

Government 356

Government Media Economics Food 356

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. The present era of interest rate normalization is not remotely comparable to those eras. At least, not yet.

Economics 325

Economics Numbers Planning Investing 325

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The rest of the numbers are via a St. With these numbers in hand, we can calculate the free money the Fed gives to banks. The current annual rate calculation is $206 billion and rising, not counting expected hikes in December and in 2023. Louis Fed, chart by Mish.

Banking 300

Banking Numbers Economics 300

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. If there was something magical about 2% as the ideal balance between prices and jobs, that would be one thing.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

The Big Picture

JUNE 2, 2023

Essentially, monthly Non-Farm Payrolls is the net difference between these two groups: The actual number is far smaller and less significant than gets played most publicly. The monthly number ( May 2023 = 339,000) is a tenth or so of the ~1.5% of the 159m total. Is that multi-month trend rising or falling?

Numbers 312

Numbers Valuation Retirement Economics 312

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model. Otherwise, they are going to unnecessarily cause economic damage in their belated attempts to lower inflation. Powell & Co.’s

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

cnn.com) Big Tech is set to cut costs (and jobs) in 2023. wired.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers show the rollover in housing prices. calculatedriskblog.com) Indicators show the economic cycle is maturing, but not yet in recession. (realreturns.blog) 13 lessons from the FTX meltdown.

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. What will the participation rate be in December 2023? We know population growth has been weak over the last several years, and that the baby boom generation is now retiring in large numbers. by 2031 due to demographics.

Economics 115

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 115

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. For most of us who are not regularly crunching the numbers in spreadsheets, it may not feel that way. October 19, 2023) Is Partisanship Driving Consumer Sentiment? Houses are another legitimate and big complaint.

Economics 321

Economics Budgeting Sales Media 321

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 3, 2023

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that amid economic and market headwinds, the pace of RIA M&A activity was slower in January and February compared to the same period last year.

Financial Planner 241

Financial Planner Retirement Clients Economics 241

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 1, 2024

Advyzon and Panoramix competing against Orion)… with the question of whether they, too, will someday raise their prices as they gain traction as well? Advyzon and Panoramix competing against Orion)… with the question of whether they, too, will someday raise their prices as they gain traction as well?

Estate Planning 242

Estate Planning Financial Advisor Clients Startup 242

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Mixed Economic Signals Amid recent signs of a labor market cooling (a hopeful sign for ending rate hikes), last Thursday’s initial jobless claims report showed only a slight increase of 204,000. However, beneath the headline number, consumer spending was cut to a 0.8 In 2023, the standard mileage rate is 65.5 cents per mile.

Marketing 111

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 111

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2023

You can build a record when in terrible years you’re up zero to five (per cent) and then throw a couple of 50s and 60s and the numbers look pretty good over time … ( Financial Times ) • The Line Is Blurring Between Remote Workers and Tourists : Economic development has fundamentally changed.

Math 288

Math License Economy Economics 288

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 30, 2023

1,2,3 Source: YCharts, October 23, 2023 to October 27, 2023. Economic data released on Thursday showed remarkable economic strength, with above-consensus forecast growth in third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and September’s durable goods orders, with only a minor uptick in initial jobless claims. Jobless Claims.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 105

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Another example from last year: In December 2022, housing inventory was very low, but increasing quickly, and house prices were declining month-to-month , and I expected prices to decline slightly in 2023. The red line is for 2023.

Economics 75

Economics Sales Economy Food 75

Risk Management Guru

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

As the year 2023 draws to a close, it’s time to reflect on the significant strides made in the realm of Risk Management within the financial services industry. This is leading to a number of new regulations, such as the stress testing requirements for banks.

Risk Management 105

Risk Management Financial Services Management Compliance 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Weekly Market Insights: September Stocks Open In Positive Territory Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Falling bond yields–spurred by weak economic data–helped lift stocks to weekly gains. A downward revision of Q2 economic growth and fresh signs of a cooling labor market reversed the recent rise in bond yield.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

In his post-announcement press conference, Fed Chair Powell remarked the inflation battle would continue, and upcoming economic data would inform the FOMC’s future rate hike decision. In their economic projections, 12 of 19 Fed officials expect to raise rates once more this year. The Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2023 2.

Marketing 111

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 111

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 7, 2023

6 This Week: Key Economic Data Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Consumer Sentiment Source: Econoday, August 4, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Medicine Taxes 98

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

5 This Week: Key Economic Data Thursday: Jobless Claims. Source: Econoday, November 3, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. CNBC, November 2, 2023.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 16, 2023

PPI, CPI Updates The disinflationary trend appears to be stalling if the inflation numbers are any indication. 5 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Retail Sales. Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Source: Econoday, October 13, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. CNBC, October 11, 2023 5.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 18, 2023

A solid retail sales number, which reflected a strong consumer and supported the soft landing thesis, also boosted enthusiasm. 6 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Housing Starts. Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Source: Econoday, December 15, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 9, 2023

The 2022 economic climate has been bumpy for most and, in some cases, even bumpier for retirees. Americans and the world at large dealt with the economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, post-pandemic industrial effects, and rising inflation and interest rates. 1] However, in 2022, this number spiked to 9.1% 1] [link].

Accounting 97

Accounting Retirement Economics Financial Planning 97

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A majority of FOMC participants expect three or even four 25 bp rate hikes in 2023. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023? We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023." However, employment changes still lag policy.

Economy 94

Economy Economics Numbers Sales 94

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

They further said that future rate decisions will be based on fresh economic data, offering no indication that a rate cut was forthcoming, as many analysts are increasingly anticipating for 2024. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: New Home Sales. Source: Econoday, November 24, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies. Fall & Winter Double Issue With that background please consider the Philadelphia Fed Fall & Economic Insights Winter Double Issue for 2022 Q3 and Q4, emphasis mine. employment for the bulk of 2022. But hooray!

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

1,2,3 Stocks March Higher A better-than-anticipated consumer inflation number on Tuesday sent bond yields sharply lower, igniting a powerful, exceptionally broad-based rally that saw 91% of all New York Stock Exchange volume advancing in price and a similarly substantial advance (85%) on the NASDAQ. CNBC, November 14, 2023.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. How much will job growth slow in 2023? range in Q4 2023. Job losses in construction haven't started yet because a record number of housing units are under construction. How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023?

Economy 94

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 94

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2023

Also, given you have to turn DRIP on in most brokerage accounts, I wonder what percentage of investors reinvest as well (have looked but can’t seem to find this number anywhere).” Essentially, he was referring to the entire field of behavioral economics. BeFin explains why people underperform their own holdings.

Assets 246

Assets Accounting Taxes Economics 246