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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

Welcome to 2023! Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! Might 2023 be a fourth major March bottom? Have a great 2023 – embrace risk, but avoid unforced errors. billion times.

Economy 328
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Investing Behavioral Hacks

The Big Picture

The problem is those behaviors are so destructive to a portfolio. 1 We ignore the reality of human behavior, including the need for some thrills and excitement, at the peril of our portfolios. Note: We deploy many of these solutions at RWM that take advantage of our knowledge of behavioral economics.) We all are! – Don’t drink!

Investing 344
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Research links: replacing anomalies

Abnormal Returns

cnbc.com) A round-up of recent research on portfolio design including 'Outperforming Equal Weighting.' alphaarchitect.com) Hong Kong went from a standout on economic freedom to laggard. cato.org) Some of the best books of 2023 including "Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis" by Scott Patterson.

Economics 291
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Forecasting Recessions

The Big Picture

The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. This came up yesterday on Portfolio Rescue with Ben Carlson. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Economic Forecasts: What’s the Probability of a Recession in 2024?

Economy 288
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Friday links: a boost to growth

Abnormal Returns

Markets A look at major asset class returns in 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Long technology, short utilities was the trade in 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Strategy How to read all those market and economic forecasts. morningstar.com) A look at different variants of the 60/40 portfolio.

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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

Marketing 336
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What Else Might be Driving Sentiment?

The Big Picture

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. This has enormous ramifications for everything from our portfolios, policies and politics… See also , Failures’ Fallout (Mehlman, August 21, 2021) Teens Spend Average of 4.8

Media 351