The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

Before yesterday’s FOMC meeting, I reiterated my view from July 2023 that this hiking cycle was – or at least should be – over. But this after-the-fact story does not resonate as truth with me, as it looks more like the 10% market correction of October 2023 has ended. Cash in No Longer Trash : TINA is officially over.

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 Mar 2023 0.0 Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. Since Q1 real GDP growth was at 1.3%

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2023

Markets 10 surprises from 2023, so far, including higher interest rates for longer. bilello.blog) In 2023, tech stocks have snubbed the Fed. crr.bc.edu) We are going to need a replacement for the gasoline tax. nytimes.com) How expanded child tax credits were used. wsj.com) There is no Social Security trust fund to invest.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Taxes Economy Media 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

percent at a monthly rate) in December , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $51.8 The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through December 2023 (2017 dollars). billion (0.3

Food 282

Food Taxes Economics 282

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 24, 2023

(mathinvestor.org) Everything forecasters got wrong in 2023. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. wsj.com) The employee-retention tax credit, or ERC, is a hot mess. time.com) Books The 16 best books of 2023 including "Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World" by John Vaillant.

Financial Advising 259

Financial Advising Media Taxes Economy 259

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 6, 2023

Markets Cullen Roche, "This has been one of the more fascinating years in economic and market history." michaelparekh.substack.com) Venture capital Q2 2023 startup data from AngelList show median valuations back to pre-pandemic levels. should let China continue to shoot itself in the (economic) foot. nytimes.com) Why the U.S.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Startup Economics Valuation 246

Calculated Risk

JUNE 30, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in May , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $86.7 The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May 2023 (2012 dollars). billion (0.4

Food 233

Food Taxes Economics 233

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Now it seems like most forecasts are for a recession in 2023. Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

In his post-announcement press conference, Fed Chair Powell remarked the inflation battle would continue, and upcoming economic data would inform the FOMC’s future rate hike decision. In their economic projections, 12 of 19 Fed officials expect to raise rates once more this year. in the fourth quarter, down from June’s 3.9%

Marketing 111

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 111

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Mixed Economic Signals Amid recent signs of a labor market cooling (a hopeful sign for ending rate hikes), last Thursday’s initial jobless claims report showed only a slight increase of 204,000. 6 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. In 2023, the standard mileage rate is 65.5

Marketing 111

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 111

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. So, we might be looking at a recession in 2023. See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 30, 2023

1,2,3 Source: YCharts, October 23, 2023 to October 27, 2023. Economic data released on Thursday showed remarkable economic strength, with above-consensus forecast growth in third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and September’s durable goods orders, with only a minor uptick in initial jobless claims. Jobless Claims.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 105

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.

Portfolio 204

Portfolio Numbers Planning Taxes 204

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Weekly Market Insights: September Stocks Open In Positive Territory Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Falling bond yields–spurred by weak economic data–helped lift stocks to weekly gains. A downward revision of Q2 economic growth and fresh signs of a cooling labor market reversed the recent rise in bond yield.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Yields rose after traders speculated that strong economic data might persuade the Fed to raise rates. Economic Strength, Housing Weakness The economy continued to evidence surprising strength according to data released last week. 6,7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Durable Goods Orders.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

If they get a 7% increase in wages, they see a modest increase in their direct deposit of after FICA, federal and state withholding taxes, 401K, etc. That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. October 19, 2023) Is Partisanship Driving Consumer Sentiment?

Budgeting 321

Budgeting Economics Sales Media 321

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in July , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2023 (2012 dollars). billion (0.2

Food 217

Food Taxes Economics 217

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

A 30-year-fixed mortgage with 5% down (including principal, interest, taxes, insurance and maintenance) on such a home cost $3,058 a month, while the median monthly rent on such a single-family house was $2,170, based on John Burns research.". Existing Home Sales long-term chart courtesy of Trading Economics. Not a Crash?!

Sales 285

Sales Economics Consulting Economy 285

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 9, 2023

7 This Week: Key Economic Data Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI). Source: Econoday, October 6, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. (JPM),

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 18, 2023

6 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Housing Starts. Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Source: Econoday, December 15, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. Source: Econoday, December 15, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. CNBC, December 13, 2023 5.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2023

Pomp points out that: “I am, however, arguing that the total return percentage traditionally quoted is not what people actually achieve in their brokerage account because of taxes. I have addressed Tax Alpha before ( see this and this ); but Pomp indirectly raised a very different issue: Why do people underperform their own assets?

Assets 246

Assets Accounting Taxes Numbers 246

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

JULY 10, 2023

5 This Week: Key Economic Data Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Source: Econoday, July 7 , 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 16, 2023

5 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Retail Sales. Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Source: Econoday, October 13, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. FCX) Friday: SLB (SLB), American Express Company (AXP) Source: Zacks, October 13, 2023 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 26, 2023

6 This Week: Key Economic Data Thursday: Jobless Claims. Source: Econoday, December 22, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. Armed Forces.

Taxes 105

Taxes Investment Advisor Sales Investing 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

5 This Week: Key Economic Data Thursday: Jobless Claims. Source: Econoday, November 3, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. CNBC, November 2, 2023.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

They further said that future rate decisions will be based on fresh economic data, offering no indication that a rate cut was forthcoming, as many analysts are increasingly anticipating for 2024. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: New Home Sales. Source: Econoday, November 24, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

6 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Existing Home Sales. Source: Econoday, November 17, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. FOMC Minutes.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 4, 2023

5 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Factory Orders. Source: Econoday, December 1, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. IRS.gov, March 28, 2023 7.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Source: Econoday, November 10, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. Retail Sales.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 105

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010.

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 11, 2023

Weekly Market Insights: Stocks Spark Late Week Rally A late-week, two-day rally left stocks higher, adding to November’s gains as the last month of trading for 2023 began. 5 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Source: Econoday, December 8, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 98

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 7, 2023

6 This Week: Key Economic Data Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Consumer Sentiment Source: Econoday, August 4, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Medicine Taxes 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 27, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in September , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $56.1 The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2023 (2017 dollars).

Food 189

Food Taxes Economics 189

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $71.9 The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2023 (2012 dollars). billion (0.4

Food 182

Food Taxes Economics 182

Fortune Financial

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

The clock is ticking for taxpayers who wish to minimize the taxes they will owe in the spring. The IRS does not tax what you divert directly from your paycheck into your retirement or health savings accounts. A Roth conversion will lower the Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from tax-deferred accounts.

Taxes 98

Taxes Education Retirement Financial Advisor 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in October , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $63.4 The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2023 (2012 dollars). billion (0.2

Food 182

Food Taxes Economics 182

Nationwide Financial

AUGUST 29, 2022

Key Takeaways: Even without new legislation, the prospect of higher taxes in the future is still looming. The impact of higher taxes on retirees could be substantial, so staying up to date on the current tax landscape is vital. But even without new legislation, the prospect of higher taxes in the future is still looming.

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Taxes Retirement Accounting Budgeting 98