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The Greatest Missed Opportunity of Our Lifetimes

The Big Picture

As the Peterson Institute noted: In June, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that annual net interest costs would total $663 billion in 2023 and almost double over the upcoming decade, soaring from $745 billion in 2024 to $1.4 Note that this is not hindsight bias , but rather discussions we had repeatedly here in the mid-2010s.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: +0.2%

The Big Picture

percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 Here is BEA: Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 billion (less than 0.1 billion (0.8

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Sunday links: judgment calls

Abnormal Returns

Markets 10 surprises from 2023, so far, including higher interest rates for longer. bilello.blog) In 2023, tech stocks have snubbed the Fed. crr.bc.edu) We are going to need a replacement for the gasoline tax. nytimes.com) How expanded child tax credits were used. wsj.com) There is no Social Security trust fund to invest.

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Sunday links: realistic optimism

Abnormal Returns

(mathinvestor.org) Everything forecasters got wrong in 2023. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. wsj.com) The employee-retention tax credit, or ERC, is a hot mess. time.com) Books The 16 best books of 2023 including "Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World" by John Vaillant.

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Where is This Rally Going?

The Big Picture

Before yesterday’s FOMC meeting, I reiterated my view from July 2023 that this hiking cycle was – or at least should be – over. But this after-the-fact story does not resonate as truth with me, as it looks more like the 10% market correction of October 2023 has ended. Cash in No Longer Trash : TINA is officially over.

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Sunday links: biased expectations

Abnormal Returns

Markets Cullen Roche, "This has been one of the more fascinating years in economic and market history." michaelparekh.substack.com) Venture capital Q2 2023 startup data from AngelList show median valuations back to pre-pandemic levels. should let China continue to shoot itself in the (economic) foot. nytimes.com) Why the U.S.

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Weekly Insights – December 25, 2023

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

6 This Week: Key Economic Data Thursday: Jobless Claims. Source: Econoday, December 22, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. Armed Forces.

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