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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Consumers, meanwhile, have just about burned their way through their post-COVID savings, which was the main driver for GDP growth in 2023.

Economics 246
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Sunday links: meaningless statistics

Abnormal Returns

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. wsj.com) Good luck trying to time the stock market using valuation metrics. econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. whitecoatinvestor.com) Strategy High yields come with risk.

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Thursday links: embracing imperfection

Abnormal Returns

(wsj.com) What phrases and words companies stood out in conference calls in 2023? techcrunch.com) SpaceX SpaceX is reportedly planning a tender offer for employee shares at a $175 billion valuation. axios.com) Economy Kyla Scanlon, "People are complex and economics doesn’t (can’t!) take that into consideration."

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Why International Diversification Is Still The Prudent Strategy (While Keeping Behavioral Biases, Risks, And Results In A Healthy Perspective)

Nerd's Eye View

In this guest post, Larry Swedroe, head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, discusses why many investors tend to fall prey to recency bias, and explains why global diversification – and keeping short- and long-term results in the right perspective – remains a prudent strategy. annually.

Valuation 246
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Sunday links: biased expectations

Abnormal Returns

Markets Cullen Roche, "This has been one of the more fascinating years in economic and market history." michaelparekh.substack.com) Venture capital Q2 2023 startup data from AngelList show median valuations back to pre-pandemic levels. should let China continue to shoot itself in the (economic) foot.

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Wednesday links: a gambling instinct

Abnormal Returns

cnn.com) Big Tech is set to cut costs (and jobs) in 2023. tomtunguz.com) Instacart continues to slash its valuation. calculatedriskblog.com) Indicators show the economic cycle is maturing, but not yet in recession. (whitecoatinvestor.com) Companies Why Southwest ($LUV) is melting down.

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Bottoming?

The Big Picture

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Those three options will determine whether or not the equity and bond markets make a bottom now, at some point in 2023, or at some future date beyond.

Economy 295