Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 452,990 in the year ending December 2023, compared with 387,721 cases in the previous year. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 452,990 in the year ending December 2023, compared with 387,721 cases in the previous year. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 16.8 Business filings rose 40.4

Economy 331

Economy 331

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

from last September [2023], when the state backed a deal for the increased wages.” The crux of EPI’s new claim is this: Since the passage of AB 1228 in September 2023, Californias privately-owned fast food restaurants5 have lost -6,166 jobs (-1.1%) through June 2024 (the latest available data). [Ed. to only 19.5%

Food 306

Food Math Numbers Economics 306

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A majority of FOMC participants expect three or even four 25 bp rate hikes in 2023. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023? We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023." I have us pausing at 5.4 percent."

Economy 236

Economy Numbers Economics Sales 236

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. How much will wages increase in 2023? YoY range in 2023 according to the CES. This depends on the Fed (next question) and if the economy slides into a recession. How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023?

Economics 225

Economics Sales Retirement Economy 225

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 309

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

With the growth in for-sale inventory and signs that the economy remains strong, buyers have remained in the market even though rates have increased recently. Applications were significantly higher than a year ago by most measures, but this was compared to the week of Thanksgiving 2023, which was a week earlier than this year’s holiday.”.

Economy 173

Economy Sales Marketing Marketing 173

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S. Purchase application activity is up about 15% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Government 221

Government Economy Marketing Marketing 221

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Here were my questions from December 2022: 10) Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 10, 2023

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2023 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.37 The delinquency rate was down 19 basis points from the first quarter of 2023 and down 27 basis points from one year ago.

Economy 246

Economy Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.”. from September 2023. from September 2023. After two years of sluggish home sales in 2023 and 2024, existing-home sales are forecasted to rise to 4.47 The Northeast PHSI expanded 6.5%

Sales 173

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 173

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Welcome to the October 2023 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

Communication 246

Communication Portfolio Management Clients Tax Planning 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. For 2023, I used a 2.6%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

The Big Picture

JUNE 26, 2023

Rising rates, falling savings, increased deficits, dubious GDP : Ever since the yield curve inverted and warnings of “imminent recession” filled the air, the Philly Fed’s map of State Coincident Indexes has provided a good real-time snapshot of the state of the economy. appeared first on The Big Picture.

Economy 321

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 321

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 7, 2024

Top clicks this week Some of the best charts of 2023. entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) 10 predictions for 2024 including 'The economy overheats.' allstarcharts.com) How major asset classes performed in December 2023. wsj.com) Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities.

Assets 296

Assets Economy Investing Investments 296

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. That was written in 2013, and it appears once again that we've avoided the "default" policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. Economy, State by State (November 22, 2023) Can Economists Predict Recessions? This came up yesterday on Portfolio Rescue with Ben Carlson.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 2, 2024

Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2023. capitalspectator.com) 2023 was a welcome respite from 2022, market-wise. albertbridgecapital.com) Strategy 10 predictions for 2024 including 'The economy overheats.' finance.yahoo.com) Finance Blackrock ($BLK) lost ETF market share in 2023.

Financial Advising 285

Financial Advising Economy Media Assets 285

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. Of the 50 states in the Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes for March 2023, only one — Alaska — is negative.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023?

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2023

Markets The top 23 charts from 2023 including volatile mortgage rates. awealthofcommonsense.com) 23 ideas from 2023 including 'Kind>Clever.' riabiz.com) The 10 biggest VC funding rounds of 2023 including Anthropic. bilello.blog) Cocoa, Solana, and uranium had a good year. Then check out our weekly adviser-focused newsletter.

Financial Advising 287

Financial Advising Media Economy Marketing 287

The Big Picture

APRIL 9, 2024

As the charts above show, the economy on a state-by-state basis has markedly improved from Q4 2023’s softening. Note in November 2023, the indexes only increased in 25 states. .” Note in November 2023, the indexes only increased in 25 states. I would go as far as to suggest it is robust.

Banking 306

Banking Manufacturing Economy 306

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. on.spdji.com) Some of the best charts of 2023. marginalrevolution.com) ETFs ETFs largely escaped having to issue capital gains in 2023. twitter.com) The tide went out in 2023 exposed all manner of poor prior decisions.

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 284

The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

I have been nurturing a pet thesis as to why higher minimum wages are a net positive for an economy: It acts as a transfer of revenue allocation from low-wage employers and franchisees from Capital to Labor. It stays local and is likely to benefit the regional economy. It has aa much smaller impact on the local economy.

Food 364

Food Economy Retail Retirement 364

Calculated Risk

MARCH 22, 2023

The combination of an unsettled economy and high interest rates is causing investors and property owners to take a closer look at their plans for construction projects,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. This index had been positive for 20 consecutive months but indicated a decline the last five months.

Economy 361

Economy Investing Investments Planning 361

The Big Picture

JANUARY 13, 2023

But the relationship does not hold up well once we begin looking at the specific sectors of the economy where price increases are slowing, stopping, or falling. CPI inflation has been coming down because the national economy has reopened, and our buying behaviors are normalizing. ~~~.

Economy 347

Economy Marketing Marketing 347

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Now it seems like most forecasts are for a recession in 2023. Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My answer is: Maybe.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

JUNE 27, 2024

Inevitably, more inventory in a job-creating economy will lead to greater home buying, especially when mortgage rates descend.”. from May 2023. from May 2023. “Supply and demand movements suggest easing home price appreciation in upcoming months. The Northeast PHSI ascended 1.1% from last month to 63.6, a decline of 2.3%

Sales 303

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 303

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? axios.com) Why did macroeconomists get 2023 so wrong? newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Some of Ben's favorite books from 2023 including "Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow" by Gabrielle Zevin.

Marketing 264

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 264

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. Hours on Social Media Per Day (Gallup, Oct 13, 2023) Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic (Bloomberg, Oct. Since 2019, Households invested more, home values jumped, and savings levels have risen.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

The biz The 25 best podcasts of 2023 including 'The Retrievals' by Susan Burton. theatlantic.com) The best podcasts of 2023 according to people who make podcasts including 'The Town with Matthew Belloni.' vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023.

Economy 262

Economy Economics Management Assets 262

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

We expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bp hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%. For 2023, we expect a substantial upward revision to GDP growth (+1.1pp to +2.1%) and moderate downward revisions to the unemployment rate (-0.2pp to 3.9%) and core inflation (-0.4pp to 3.5%)." March 2023 0.0

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

August 2023 How major asset classes performed in August 2023. capitalspectator.com) A summary of S&P Dow Jones index returns in August 2023. morningstar.com) Economy The August NFP showed continued growth and a 3.8% bloomberg.com) Dave Nadig, Barry Ritholtz and Cameron Dawson talk 2023's economic cross-currents.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Advertising Retail Economy 264

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

in Q4 2023 – up ~36% since the October 2022 lows, and up 24.2% It finished 2023 with 9 consecutive weeks of gains. in 2023, its best performance since 2009. during November 2023. by November of 2023. in November 2023. y/y in April 2023 to 6.7% Flat over 2 years : The S&P 500 gained >12.1%

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Kick it off right with our first day of the year reads: • Everything Wall Street Got Wrong in 2023 : Stocks were supposed to slump and bonds rally as the Fed drove the US into a recession. economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises – like in 2020 with the pandemic – to adjust my thinking. Stay invested.

Distribution 273

Distribution Economy Clients Management 273

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 18, 2024

Markets Managed futures did not have a great 2023. economist.com) The German economy is stuck in the mud. semafor.com) In 2023 France had the fewest number of births since World War II. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Economy The 'Sahm rule' is not going to trigger any time soon.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Economy Media Numbers 263

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2022

Though annual appreciation was still strong, it slowed from the previous month for the second consecutive month, reflecting reduced buyer demand in part due to higher mortgage rates and worries about a slowing economy. by June 2023, bringing home price growth close to the long run average from 2010 to 2020. by June 2023.

Economy 321

Economy Sales Marketing Marketing 321