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Sunday links: too many theories

Abnormal Returns

npr.org) Occupational licensing is out of control. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." abnormalreturns.com) The 2023 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is here! econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Ethics 243
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

The Federal Reserve is struggling to cool inflation further without damaging the economy. Quanta Magazine ) • Why More Americans Are Using Fake License Plates and Getting Away : With It The old system of traffic control is breaking down. My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The Fed Has No Good Options. The easy part is over.

Math 288
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Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank

Trade Brains

It is licensed under the Banking Regulation Act, to carry out small finance bank business. Credit to agriculture and allied activities rose by 15.4% (y-o-y) in March 2023 vs. 9.9% in March 2023 (23.0% Credit growth in the services sector accelerated to 19.8% (y-o-y) in March 2023 from 8.7% a year ago. as against 54.4%

Banking 126
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Client Letter | Outlook 2023: Finding Balance | December 6, 2022

James Hendries

Whether it’s about the markets and global economy or what’s happening in our local communities, the news we’re hearing on a daily basis has the potential to disrupt the balance of our lives. In 2023, we expect the Fed to find that point where it can stop raising rates, as inflation starts to come under control.

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Pessimism May Be Overdone | Weekly Market Commentary | January 17, 2023

James Hendries

The key question coming into this earnings season is whether the pessimism surrounding 2023 earnings has gone too far. economy grew at a solid 3.2% and European economies, currency effects, and some mitigation of profit margin pressures from cost controls and lower inflation. economy may “muddle through” and skirt recession.

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No Landing = No Sense | Weekly Market Commentary | March 6, 2023

James Hendries

Suggesting an economy makes “no landing” makes no sense. Economic activity does not stop like an airplane eventually does, but rather the economy will settle into a steady state where growth is consistent with factors such as population and productivity. Analogies eventually break down, especially this one. Why The “Landing” Analogy?

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A Feisty Bull-Bear Debate: Weighing the Pros and Cons | Weekly Market Commentary | January 23, 2023

James Hendries

Topic 1: Economy Bull case: Consumer is resilient, the labor market is strong, wages are rising, and inflation is coming down steadily. Background: The global economy will likely slow from the upper-2% range in 2022 down to slightly above zero in 2023 ( Figure 1 ). Call us cautious bulls. If the U.S. Our take: The U.S.