The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

To prove their point, a number of friendly commentators, academics, and hired guns all wrote endless white papers, Op-Eds and commentaries. But they made one super-sized mistake: they cheated with the numbers. from last September [2023], when the state backed a deal for the increased wages.” Our story began with a Wall St.

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Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 24, 2023

blockworks.co) Five insights from Zeke Faux's "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." ft.com) AngelList on the state of early-stage venture capital in Q3 2023. bloomberg.com) Global Germany's economy has badly lagged since the pandemic. etf.com) Grayscale is teaming up with FTSE Russell on crypto indices.

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Financial Advising Economy Media Numbers 265

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Stock picking is difficult because it requires a number of different skills. ft.com) A review of the biggest crypto-related court cases in 2023. wsj.com) Economy Annie Lowery, "We have a long-standing housing shortage. humbledollar.com) Why it's hard for outsiders to know what's going on inside a company.

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 24, 2023

(mathinvestor.org) Everything forecasters got wrong in 2023. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. time.com) Books The 16 best books of 2023 including "Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World" by John Vaillant. shepherd.com) Economy You can't guarantee a soft landing just yet.

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 11, 2023

Markets Every major asset class, except commodities, is set for an up 2023. nytimes.com) Zeke Faux's "Number Go Up" isn't really a book about crypto. ft.com) Economy Consumers are finally pushing back against higher prices. econbrowser.com) If you are looking for signs of weakness in the economy, here they are.

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Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. stayathomemacro.substack.com) How the current post-Covid economy resembles the post-WWII economy.

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

(talkingbiznews.com) Ten books that made us think in 2023 including "Ours Was the Shining Future" by David Leonhardt. theatlantic.com) The best books of 2023 including "The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism" by Tim Alberta. unemployment rate.

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Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 265

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 30, 2023

ritholtz.com) ETFs 2023 is on track for a record number of ETF closures. ft.com) Economy The labor market is not all that tight. (ft.com) Generating alpha is more than just stock selection. flyoverstocks.com) Who is to blame for the behavior gap? wsj.com) The SEC's logic in the Grayscale case was flawed.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 260

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

(theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. spyglass.org) Sports The PGA Tour just scored a big, non-Saudi, investment.

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Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 263

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

I am not sure if they quite recognize the potential damage they are doing to the economy. Lack of Single Family Homes : We’ve discussed this before most notably in 2021, but home builders have wildly underbuilt the number of houses relative to population growth following the financial crisis (GFC).

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Abnormal Returns

MARCH 15, 2023

on.ft.com) Free streaming numbers are moving up and to the right. washingtonpost.com) Economy The economy is on the verge of a manufacturing recession. bonddad.blogspot.com) National homebuilder confidence ticked higher in March 2023. (wsj.com) The bond market reversal caught a lot of managed futures funds offsides.

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Financial Advising Media Risk Management Banking 246

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 14, 2023

behaviouralinvestment.com) The best business books of 2023, including "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall" by Zeke Faux. semafor.com) Economy The October CPI report showed a 3.2% Markets The S&P 500 is set to go from oversold to overbought in a rapid period of time. year-over-year increase.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Advertising Media Economy 261

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. Their PTSD is palpable.

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Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 7, 2023

axios.com) VC VC funding fell sharply in Q1 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Economy The March NFP report shows a 3.5% calculatedriskblog.com) The employment economy is not in recession. bonddad.blogspot.com) The ISM services number is in steep decline. nytimes.com) The metaverse was a 'fever dream.'

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 How much will job growth slow in 2023? Or will the economy lose jobs? range in Q4 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #7 for 2023: How much will wages increase in 2023?

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Economy Economics Sales Numbers 94

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." abnormalreturns.com) The 2023 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is here!

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Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

cnn.com) Big Tech is set to cut costs (and jobs) in 2023. wired.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers show the rollover in housing prices. (realreturns.blog) 13 lessons from the FTX meltdown. whitecoatinvestor.com) Companies Why Southwest ($LUV) is melting down. tomtunguz.com) Instacart continues to slash its valuation.

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 23, 2023

wapo.st) Given bad affordability numbers its hard to see house prices bottoming soon. theatlantic.com) Economy Still no sign of a sustained uptick in weekly initial unemployment claims. abnormalreturns.com) The 2023 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is here! pragcap.com) The U.S. housing market has lost $2.3

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Media Retirement Economy 246

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 29, 2024

Also in industry news this week: With the new “T+1” rules for trade settlements will go into effect in late May, the SEC has issued a risk alert for broker-dealers and RIAs outlining the requirements they face and areas of focus for the regulator during upcoming examinations A recent survey suggests that while client satisfaction with their (..)

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Financial Planner Insurance Coverage Financial Advisor Communication 244

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

MSM uncritically repeated the false number. To ensure we’re looking at the proper vintage data, we’ll use FRED’s sibling, ALFRED, which allows us to pick a point in time and view the then-real-time numbers. Since January 2023, private-sector employment in the state declined by over 46,000 workers. I lied again.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. There is not a lot the Fed can do to increase the number of workers, create more single-family homes, end the Russian war in Ukraine, produce more semiconductors, or untangle snarled supply chains.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2023

The Federal Reserve is struggling to cool inflation further without damaging the economy. My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The Fed Has No Good Options. The Risk of a Misstep Is Growing. The easy part is over. Wall Street Journal ) • How Druckenmiller Does It: He Hates To Lose : Druckenmiller dispensed some handy tips.

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Math License Economy Economics 288

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2023

Fundamental changes are taking place in the labor economy, especially within the service sector. Immigrants used to fill the gap but we seem to have reduced the total number of legal immigrants over the past decade (some recent data suggests that’s improving). The post Help Wanted! appeared first on The Big Picture.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2024

So, the Fed needs to have a sense of where things are headed with inflation — because rates are a tool that takes a little bit for it to work its way through the economy. It was a kind of slow burn on the economy. Yes, and so that had, that was, shutting down a 20 trillion-plus economy is just unfathomable.

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Economy Communication Food Consulting 279

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage? bgregorio Wed, 09/13/2023 - 04:16 In August, superstar singer and entertainer Taylor Swift completed the first leg of her Eras tour in Los Angeles, performing 52 dates through 20 U.S. economy afloat this summer! billion at the box office) in 2023. Girl Power, indeed!

Economy 98

Economy Clients Economics Investing 98

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A majority of FOMC participants expect three or even four 25 bp rate hikes in 2023. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023? We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023." I have us pausing at 5.4 percent."

Economy 94

Economy Economics Numbers Sales 94

Carson Wealth

MAY 20, 2024

April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. Despite the path of the economy, inflation, the election, geopolitics, or the Fed’s actions, what matters at the end of the day is what markets do. New highs scare many investors, but history suggests more new highs will follow.

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Numbers Marketing Marketing Insurance 97

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 2, 2023

However, beneath the headline number, consumer spending was cut to a 0.8 Source: Econoday, September 29, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. STZ) Source: Zacks, September 29, 2023 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. In 2023, the standard mileage rate is 65.5 cents per mile.

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Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 111

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

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Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 11, 2023

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. Data as of July 30, 2023 Source: FactSet.

Economy 98

Economy Manufacturing Clients Economics 98

Risk Management Guru

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

As the year 2023 draws to a close, it’s time to reflect on the significant strides made in the realm of Risk Management within the financial services industry. This is leading to a number of new regulations, such as the stress testing requirements for banks.

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Risk Management Financial Services Management Compliance 105

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

1,2,3 Stocks Rise On Slowing Economy Investor sentiment turned positive last week as signs of economic softness were interpreted as reason for the Fed to hold off on further rate hikes. Source: Econoday, September 1, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. The Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2023 2.

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Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 105

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart.

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Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Dear Mr. Market

MARCH 11, 2023

Click here or below to enlarge and see the entire bracket for 2023. In other words, these investments (or “teams”) are ranked and seeded on a number of factors but one of the main drivers is how hot they recently performed within the past few months or recent year. That being said, this is very much worthy of a long-term investment.

Investing 102

Investing Investments Portfolio Assets 102

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 2, 2024

The economy surprised, the consumer remained resilient, stocks soared, and even bonds did well on the year thanks to a late-innings rally. Some are perhaps unorthodox, but they tell us a lot about 2023 while setting the scene for 2024. Some are perhaps unorthodox, but they tell us a lot about 2023 while setting the scene for 2024.

Marketing 89

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 89

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 26, 2023

(theirrelevantinvestor.com) Bank turmoil is now on everyone's dance card for 2023. rationalwalk.com) How the bank crisis could ripple through the economy. notes.mtb.xyz) Companies How old economy companies benefit from Big Tech layoffs. npr.org) An increasing number of guns are being stolen out cars these days.

Asset Allocation 130

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Banking Economy 130

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Here were my questions from December 2022: 10) Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

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