Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. on.spdji.com) Some of the best charts of 2023. marginalrevolution.com) ETFs ETFs largely escaped having to issue capital gains in 2023. twitter.com) The tide went out in 2023 exposed all manner of poor prior decisions.

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Medical Economy Manufacturing 284

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 18, 2024

Markets Managed futures did not have a great 2023. economist.com) The German economy is stuck in the mud. semafor.com) In 2023 France had the fewest number of births since World War II. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Economy The 'Sahm rule' is not going to trigger any time soon.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Economy Media Numbers 263

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023?

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. 2) Significant policy error. Here are their March projections for GDP and unemployment.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Now it seems like most forecasts are for a recession in 2023. Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My answer is: Maybe.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

police killed more people in 2023 than they have in a decade. theguardian.com) The homicide rate fell sharply in 2023. washingtonpost.com) The number of American centenarians is set to quadruple. papers.ssrn.com) Economy People have nostalgia for a time that never existed. ft.com) Crime U.S.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 289

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 24, 2023

blockworks.co) Five insights from Zeke Faux's "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." ft.com) AngelList on the state of early-stage venture capital in Q3 2023. bloomberg.com) Global Germany's economy has badly lagged since the pandemic. etf.com) Grayscale is teaming up with FTSE Russell on crypto indices.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Economy Media Numbers 264

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Stock picking is difficult because it requires a number of different skills. ft.com) A review of the biggest crypto-related court cases in 2023. wsj.com) Economy Annie Lowery, "We have a long-standing housing shortage. humbledollar.com) Why it's hard for outsiders to know what's going on inside a company.

Financial Advising 281

Financial Advising Economics Insurance Media 281

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

We expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bp hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%. For 2023, we expect a substantial upward revision to GDP growth (+1.1pp to +2.1%) and moderate downward revisions to the unemployment rate (-0.2pp to 3.9%) and core inflation (-0.4pp to 3.5%)." March 2023 0.0

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 11, 2023

Markets Every major asset class, except commodities, is set for an up 2023. nytimes.com) Zeke Faux's "Number Go Up" isn't really a book about crypto. ft.com) Economy Consumers are finally pushing back against higher prices. econbrowser.com) If you are looking for signs of weakness in the economy, here they are.

Media 276

Media Financial Advising Retail Economy 276

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. stayathomemacro.substack.com) How the current post-Covid economy resembles the post-WWII economy.

Assets 271

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 271

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

(talkingbiznews.com) Ten books that made us think in 2023 including "Ours Was the Shining Future" by David Leonhardt. theatlantic.com) The best books of 2023 including "The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism" by Tim Alberta. unemployment rate.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 264

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 30, 2023

ritholtz.com) ETFs 2023 is on track for a record number of ETF closures. ft.com) Economy The labor market is not all that tight. (ft.com) Generating alpha is more than just stock selection. flyoverstocks.com) Who is to blame for the behavior gap? wsj.com) The SEC's logic in the Grayscale case was flawed.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 260

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

You’ll remember as I came into the Fed, I started the very beginning of, of 2023 in December of 2022. It was the Bloomberg economist who said there was a 100% chance of recession in 2023 because. The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups.

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! And guess what?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 24, 2023

(mathinvestor.org) Everything forecasters got wrong in 2023. nytimes.com) Strategy The stock market was up big in 2023, but it wasn't easy. time.com) Books The 16 best books of 2023 including "Fire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World" by John Vaillant. shepherd.com) Economy You can't guarantee a soft landing just yet.

Financial Advising 259

Financial Advising Media Taxes Economy 259

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

(theverge.com) Ozempic accounted for 41% of Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) total sales in 2023. wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. spyglass.org) Sports The PGA Tour just scored a big, non-Saudi, investment.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Media Accounting Economy 262

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

I am not sure if they quite recognize the potential damage they are doing to the economy. Lack of Single Family Homes : We’ve discussed this before most notably in 2021, but home builders have wildly underbuilt the number of houses relative to population growth following the financial crisis (GFC).

Food 317

Food Economy Numbers Sales 317

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 15, 2023

on.ft.com) Free streaming numbers are moving up and to the right. washingtonpost.com) Economy The economy is on the verge of a manufacturing recession. bonddad.blogspot.com) National homebuilder confidence ticked higher in March 2023. (wsj.com) The bond market reversal caught a lot of managed futures funds offsides.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Media Banking Risk Management 246

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. Their PTSD is palpable.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 14, 2023

behaviouralinvestment.com) The best business books of 2023, including "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall" by Zeke Faux. semafor.com) Economy The October CPI report showed a 3.2% Markets The S&P 500 is set to go from oversold to overbought in a rapid period of time. year-over-year increase.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Advertising Media Economy 260

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 7, 2023

axios.com) VC VC funding fell sharply in Q1 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Economy The March NFP report shows a 3.5% calculatedriskblog.com) The employment economy is not in recession. bonddad.blogspot.com) The ISM services number is in steep decline. nytimes.com) The metaverse was a 'fever dream.'

Startup 246

Startup Financial Advising Economy Media 246

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." abnormalreturns.com) The 2023 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is here!

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

cnn.com) Big Tech is set to cut costs (and jobs) in 2023. wired.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers show the rollover in housing prices. (realreturns.blog) 13 lessons from the FTX meltdown. whitecoatinvestor.com) Companies Why Southwest ($LUV) is melting down. tomtunguz.com) Instacart continues to slash its valuation.

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 23, 2023

wapo.st) Given bad affordability numbers its hard to see house prices bottoming soon. theatlantic.com) Economy Still no sign of a sustained uptick in weekly initial unemployment claims. abnormalreturns.com) The 2023 Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is here! pragcap.com) The U.S. housing market has lost $2.3

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Media Retirement Banking 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

railroads averaged 499,331 per week in October 2023, the most for any month since June 2021 — a span of 28 months. Part of the increase relates to intermodal seasonality and concerns over Panama Canal capacity, but part also reflects an economy that remains resilient. Total carloads averaged 230,398 per week in October 2023.

Economy 189

Economy Numbers 189

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. There is not a lot the Fed can do to increase the number of workers, create more single-family homes, end the Russian war in Ukraine, produce more semiconductors, or untangle snarled supply chains.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2023

Here is their weekly report from economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 1, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2%. We expect inventory in 2023 to continue to struggle to keep pace and likely decline for the year as a whole. •

Sales 182

Sales Numbers Economy Marketing 182

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2023

The Federal Reserve is struggling to cool inflation further without damaging the economy. My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The Fed Has No Good Options. The Risk of a Misstep Is Growing. The easy part is over. Wall Street Journal ) • How Druckenmiller Does It: He Hates To Lose : Druckenmiller dispensed some handy tips.

Math 288

Math License Economy Numbers 288

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. But those numbers are backward looking.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 95

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 29, 2024

Also in industry news this week: With the new “T+1” rules for trade settlements will go into effect in late May, the SEC has issued a risk alert for broker-dealers and RIAs outlining the requirements they face and areas of focus for the regulator during upcoming examinations A recent survey suggests that while client satisfaction with their (..)

Financial Planner 244

Financial Planner Insurance Coverage Financial Advisor Communication 244

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2023

Fundamental changes are taking place in the labor economy, especially within the service sector. Immigrants used to fill the gap but we seem to have reduced the total number of legal immigrants over the past decade (some recent data suggests that’s improving). The post Help Wanted! appeared first on The Big Picture.

Retail 320

Retail Food Manufacturing Economy 320

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage? bgregorio Wed, 09/13/2023 - 04:16 In August, superstar singer and entertainer Taylor Swift completed the first leg of her Eras tour in Los Angeles, performing 52 dates through 20 U.S. economy afloat this summer! billion at the box office) in 2023. Girl Power, indeed!

Economy 98

Economy Clients Economics Investing 98

Carson Wealth

MAY 20, 2024

April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. Despite the path of the economy, inflation, the election, geopolitics, or the Fed’s actions, what matters at the end of the day is what markets do. New highs scare many investors, but history suggests more new highs will follow.

Numbers 96

Numbers Marketing Marketing Insurance 96

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 2, 2023

However, beneath the headline number, consumer spending was cut to a 0.8 Source: Econoday, September 29, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. STZ) Source: Zacks, September 29, 2023 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. In 2023, the standard mileage rate is 65.5 cents per mile.

Marketing 111

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 111

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 11, 2023

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. Data as of July 30, 2023 Source: FactSet.

Economy 98

Economy Manufacturing Clients Economics 98