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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246
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Sunday links: meaningless statistics

Abnormal Returns

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. wsj.com) Good luck trying to time the stock market using valuation metrics. ft.com) Policy Why housing (policy) matters so much for the economy. wsj.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking mid-2% growth. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count.

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Wednesday links: unusual performance

Abnormal Returns

Markets Six charts that defined markets in 2023. newsletter.rationalwalk.com) Product-wise, 2024 will be a bigger year for Apple ($AAPL) than 2023. finance.yahoo.com) Hipgnosis is having a hard time coming up with song valuations. visualcapitalist.com) Economy The Fed is moderately tight. buy back shares?

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Tuesday links: detrimental behavior

Abnormal Returns

feld.com) 2023 is going to be a year or reckoning for the startup space. wsj.com) Startups are going to experience a "new normal" valuation-wise. avc.com) SpaceX is raising new capital at a $137 billion valuation. nytimes.com) The UK has 'deconverged' from the rest of the global economy. etf.com) Global U.S.

Startup 242
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Thursday links: embracing imperfection

Abnormal Returns

(wsj.com) What phrases and words companies stood out in conference calls in 2023? techcrunch.com) SpaceX SpaceX is reportedly planning a tender offer for employee shares at a $175 billion valuation. axios.com) Economy Kyla Scanlon, "People are complex and economics doesn’t (can’t!) take that into consideration."

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Bottoming?

The Big Picture

Those three options will determine whether or not the equity and bond markets make a bottom now, at some point in 2023, or at some future date beyond. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! My take on these probabilities looks something like this: 1. to closer to 5%.

Economy 295
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Friday links: noticing anomalies

Abnormal Returns

(nytimes.com) Companies Revisiting Tesla's ($TSLA) valuation, post-Twitter fiasco. wsj.com) Intel ($INTC) had a tough 2022 and 2023 isn't looking better. thebasispoint.com) Housing The Fed's policies are hitting the economy primarily through the housing channel. cnbc.com) Zillow ($Z) has a new AI-powered way to search for homes.