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Question #6 for 2023: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A majority of FOMC participants expect three or even four 25 bp rate hikes in 2023. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023? We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023."

Economy 236
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Nine Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Jan. 12, 2023)

Wealth Management

Investors with a net worth of $30 million or greater saw real estate as an attractive investment opportunity in 2022 amid volatility in financial markets, reports Barron’s. Urban Land Institute looks at the five sustainability issues likely to face the commercial real estate industry this year.

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30 Years of Financial Market Returns

A Wealth of Common Sense

First the annual return numbers for the S&P 500, 10 year treasuries and 3 month T-bills over the 30 years ending in 2023: Some thoughts about these numbers: St. I couldn’t help but slice and dice the numbers and overanalyze the data because that’s what we do here. Let’s dig in.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

(abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. topdowncharts.substack.com) Six things that don't change in financial markets including the attraction of 'shiny objects.' safalniveshak.com) The markets were bad in 2022, but things could always be worse. realreturns.blog).

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How Do Active Managers Invest Their Own Money?

The Big Picture

The researchers describe financial markets as “slowly evolving communities of practice whose habits, routines and ways of knowing can be difficult to shift, even when faced with overwhelming evidence that what they are doing doesn’t work most of the time.”

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.8 percent – the lowest level since August 2023.

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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

” Here are the June 2016 dot plots: Fast forward to September 2021, where the Fed imagined 2023 fund rates to be around 1%: Now, March 2022 dots imagined a year later we’d be about 3%: Last, the current September 2023 Dot Plot, which I guess is comforting(?)

Economics 325