The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

A quick note as the first half of 2023 draws to a close, shocking the locals with its intensity. 1 As of this moment, the indices stand appreciably higher than where they were on January 1, 2023: The NASDAQ 100 is up >38%, the S&P 500 is up ~15.5%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index is up almost 7%. What were their sources?

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Welcome to 2023! Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! Might 2023 be a fourth major March bottom? Have a great 2023 – embrace risk, but avoid unforced errors.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Q4-over-Q4 in 2023. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023? The FOMC is forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts are forecasting an economic recession in 2023.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2023

You can order one at Investments Illustrated The post 2023: The Big Picture appeared first on The Big Picture. Love this giant chart!

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. What will the participation rate be in December 2023? There are probably a few more people that will return to the workforce in 2023, pushing up the participation rate. Question #7 for 2023: How much will wages increase in 2023?

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 25, 2023

But they also asked questions about how these managers invested their own monies. Robin buries the lede in his discussion, but allow me to correct that oversight: “ Active managers invest their own capital passively.” ” It’s is worth your time to delve into the entire discussion.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 16, 2023

That investment decision ran head-on into the buzzsaw of unprecedented rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Therein lay a massive difference between 2008 and 2023. ~~~ Market turmoil to is often chalked up to fear and emotion, and with good reason. In the meantime, 2023 is not the GFC – it is its own thing entirely.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 6, 2023

 Investing Skill vs. Luck with Michael J. Mauboussin, Counterpoint Global (Dec 6, 2023) Is it better to be lucky or good? How much of a role does luck pay in investing? Mauboussin: Michael Mauboussin is head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

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Wealth Management

JANUARY 9, 2024

Observers tend to focus a lot on ETF launches, but Morningstar analyzed the more than 200 ETFs that closed in 2023. A higher interest rate environment made things tough for private equity in 2023 and that could continue this year, reports Bloomberg Businessweek.

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Wealth Management

JANUARY 16, 2024

After 2022, many declared the 60/40 portfolio dead, but the traditional portfolio mix rebounded in 2023, writes Morningstar. BlackRock’s move into the private infrastructure investment space is part of a broader strategy for the asset manager to diversify from its strength in ETFs, according to FundFire.

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Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 20, 2024

Opportunity Zone fundraising waned in 2023, according to data from Novogradac. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors. Ethereum prices are rising with the anticipation that spot ETFs could emerge in the space.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2025

in November 2023. in November 2023. Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November, up from 3.7% range in Q4 2025.

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 1, 2023

washingtonpost.com) Lists The best podcasts of 2023 including “The Big Dig.” newyorker.com) The top podcasts of 2023 via Apple Podcasts, including the Huberman Lab. apple.com) The top podcasts of 2023 via Spotify, including the Joe Rogan Experience. (sixcolors.com) Substack is adding video creation tools.

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Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? 8) Residential Investment: Residential investment (RI) was slightly positive through the first three quarters of 2024. How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? New home sales were up 2.1%

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Wealth Management

JANUARY 23, 2024

Private equity fundraising hit a six-year low in 2023, according to Preqin data. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors. Nasdaq looked at why Bitcoin prices have dropped since the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

 At the Money: Stock Picking vs. Value Investing with Jeremy Schwartz, Wisdom Tree. Should value investing be part of that strategy? TRANSCRIPT: Jeremy Schwartz Value Investing Barry Ritholtz : How much you pay for your stocks has a giant impact on how well they perform. What Is value investing?

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 18, 2025

We are four weeks out from the publication of “ How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them.” I stopped writing my column and blog posts (mostly) to focus on this from December 2023 right up until January 2025. How can we avoid the avoidable unforced errors?

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 23, 2023

Most people believe that investing is the science of generating a return on capital. At its heart, investing is a problem-solving exercise , filled with opportunities that reveal the errors we all make. This should be reflected in how we invest. That is an accurate but incomplete assessment. – “ Future ” demands optimism.

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Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Welcome to the October 2023 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

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Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 4, 2023

Welcome to the September 2023 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

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Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

morningstar.com) Was employment growth in 2023 lower than initially thought? (bloomberg.com) KKR ($KKR) is getting out of the music rights business. ft.com) Will Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) ever pay a dividend? newsletter.rationalwalk.com) Economy How to parse a CPI report. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Thursday linkfest.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 29, 2024

The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures increased at a 3.2% Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q4 compared to Q3 and was up 5% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. annual pace in Q4. Click on graph for larger image.

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Nerd's Eye View

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

Welcome to the November 2023 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

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Wealth Management

JANUARY 19, 2023

Morningstar looks at the pros and cons of investing in REITs vs. directly into properties. Bisnow examines who has been buying old office buildings over the past year. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2023

financial-planning.com) Economy Forecasters keep boosting 2023 growth estimates. (economist.com) China is becoming Japan, demographically. ft.com) On the struggles that Ukrainian refugees have had trying to make ends meet in new countries. axios.com) How higher interest rates are going to affect the economy.

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Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a pickup in CRE investment in early 2023, but if the weakness persists - a slowdown in CRE investment later in 2023.

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Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 7, 2023

These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world to end the week. WeWork’s stated plan to renegotiate its leases with landlords may run into issues, reports CoStar. Bisnow looked at how extreme heat is creating delays with construction.

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Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

Alternative investment managers have filed a lawsuit against the SEC over its attempts to regulate private funds. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to kick off the new week.

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Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

Cushman & Wakefield profiled investment activity among alternative property types. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to end the week. CoStar looked at what entities besides landlords are among WeWork’s creditors during its bankruptcy.

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Wealth Management

DECEMBER 6, 2023

Open, honest and candid discussion about retirement income, PEPs, investing options, job dissatisfaction and the word of the year.

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Wealth Management

OCTOBER 30, 2023

These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to start the new week. Caution has crept into the industrial market, where some big users of space are holding off on additional commitments, reports Bisnow.

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Wealth Management

OCTOBER 2, 2023

These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to kick off the week. Active managers increased allocations to the healthcare, residential and data center sectors in the second quarter, according to Nareit analysis.

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Wealth Management

DECEMBER 5, 2023

These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world. The CEOs of Yieldstreet and Cadre talked to Fortune about how the acquisition came together. Private debt and equity options geared for accredited investors continue to proliferate.

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Wealth Management

JUNE 8, 2023

These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world heading into the weekend. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed her concerns about the effect that commercial real estate loans might have on banks. Forbes listed 71 real estate firms among the 2,000 largest public companies in the world.

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Wealth Management

OCTOBER 26, 2023

The Wall Street Journal looked at the growth of the data center segment as an investment strategy. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to wrap up the week. Big changes at the top were announced for both Rudin and Silverstein Properties with next generation family members taking the helms at both firms.

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Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world to start the new week. Value losses attributed to WeWork could reach $7 billion under a worst case scenario, according to an analysis from CoStar. The Wall Street Journal examined the state of San Francisco’s struggling real estate market.

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