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In my opinion the diversification benefit hits diminishing returns pretty close to 40 individual holdings based on math if nothing else. If a portfolio starts with 40 holdings each with an equal 2.5% The chart shows two long term outperformers, names blanked out, each having much different 2023's.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. So what trends and practice areas have you most excited looking forward 2023 and beyond?
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. Now I do fundamental side research portfoliomanagement, which I just, 00:08:20 [Speaker Changed] So, so you joined GMO, there’s 60 people, 30 years.
I was always good at math, but I really, I just didn’t relate to things that were more esoteric bonds options. I worked in sort of a quasi portfoliomanagement role for like a single client account type business. And I, I think that I kind of triangulated on it. I have no family history. I had two stops before then.
Download it here Darwinian Investing: The Science of Rejection The outperformance of the “Magnificent Seven”1 during 2023 led to many questions from our investors (for instance “why are you underweight the Mag 7?”) During 2023, one of our most beaten-up books was ‘What I Learned About Investing from Darwin’.2
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. Those have compounded over the centuries and have managed to amass a huge amount of, of capital. He is portfoliomanager at Orbis Holdings.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. So I, as a discretionary portfoliomanager, if you hand me cash, I can look at the market and say, you know what?
But it was a tremendous experience because I had started off in bond trading, worked my way into portfoliomanagement and running the bond indexing team for a number of years, and then I got asked to take this responsibility, which was much broader. And then whatever you got from bonds was just a bonus on top of that.
Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Boldly flying in front of a stained glass window PortfolioManagement Sick of the ups and downs of the markets? 2023 is merely a sequel to 2022, already anticipating the FOMC stopping Jan 13, 2023 Experts Spent Years ‘Angst-ing’ Over Value.
I was a fixed income portfoliomanager and trader, which is a ton of fun. PIMCO out on the West Coast, read the first thing I wrote in the Journal of PortfolioManagement. My mom was a math teacher so — RITHOLTZ: Okay. But it wasn’t like whatever skills they taught me in the PhD. RITHOLTZ: Meaning what?
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. He helps portfoliomanagers make sense of the world. 00:41:31 [Speaker Changed] So when was, when was the last tightening was July, 2023. So at that point, I had a pretty big career. Not, not useful. Probably longer than that.
That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. This 2023 academic study of survey forecasts got similar results. percent in 2023. Beyond the present lies imagination.
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