The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

They ignored seasonality; they they mixed the match data from completely different series; they cherry, picked starting and stopped dates for their analysis that bore no relationship to the underlying economic trends. Note: To be clear, while the law passed in Sept 2023, it did not take effect until April 2024.]

Food 306

Food Math Numbers Economics 306

The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

The text accompanying that chart reads: “ Consumption: in 2024, one third of GDP came from government spending, a record high excluding periods of war or crisis; this was financed by 6-7% budget deficits, another unwelcome peacetime record.” How can this be? Maybe my animus toward DOGE is misplaced. Both the Wall St.

Government 306

Government Investing Investments Economy 306

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024. How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024? The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

What are the Bull and Bear cases for 2024? Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. All of that tightening is why we cannot rule out a recession in 2024. before falling to 0.7% in November 2023.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Wealth Management

JANUARY 27, 2025

RIAs' belief in the future of the economy grew for the fourth straight month, even as the post-election bump in market sentiment faded slightly.

Economics 253

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 253

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

The Big Picture

APRIL 25, 2024

A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. economic strength.” That lagged economists’ consensus of 2.4%. However, it’s not quite all it appears.

Economy 214

Economy Banking Economics Investing 214

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.”

Advertising 321

Advertising Economics Banking Economy 321

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2024

bloomberg.com) Traditional actively managed equity mutual funds saw record outflows in 2024. heathercoxrichardson.substack.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers showed a 3.6% nextbigideaclub.com) 11 of the best things from 2024 including 'The Wild Robot.' (cnbc.com) Gold had its best year since 2010. Well, you should.

Media 173

Media Economy Numbers Economics 173

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

nytimes.com) Economy The Russian Ruble is tumbling in value. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims. apps.npr.org) The ten best history books from 2024 including "Wide Awake: The Forgotten Force That Elected Lincoln and Spurred the Civil War" by Jon Grinspan.

Media 162

Media Retail Economy Economics 162

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. You might be surprised at the findings. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.

Marketing 316

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 316

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 1, 2024

Markets The S&P 500 returned 5.87% in November 2024. sherwood.news) Economy Real wages are still rising. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. seths.blog) The ten best books about food from 2024 including "Frostbite: How Refrigeration Changed Our Food, Our Planet and Ourselves" by Nicola Twilley.

Math 173

Math Budgeting Food Taxes 173

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

apolloacademy.com) Finance How cold-storage operator Lineage ($LINE) became the biggest IPO of 2024 so far. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. ft.com) Economy The case for the Fed to cut rates. wsj.com) How the post-pandemic economy is messing with the Sahm Rule.

License 289

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 289

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 3, 2024

Markets A look back at Q1 2024 asset class returns. novelinvestor.com) Growth and value performance flip-flopped in March 2024. theringer.com) Economy How well does consumer sentiment correlate with the real economy? bonddad.blogspot.com) Part-time is not a negative for the economy if it isn't for economic reasons.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Economy Media Numbers 264

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added

Economics 347

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 347

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 24, 2025

bigtechnology.com) Economy Sales of existing homes in the US hit their lowest level since 1995. cnn.com) It looks like there was a stockpiling effect at the end of 2024. calculatedriskblog.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: basic economics. (sherwood.news) Are AI companies wasting money?

Food 147

Food Taxes Media Economy 147

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? bloomberg.com) Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'How much will wages increase in 2024?' (wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem. axios.com) Why did macroeconomists get 2023 so wrong?

Marketing 264

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 264

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Economy, State by State (November 22, 2023) Can Economists Predict Recessions? Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 14, 2024

etf.com) Economy Six things Presidential candidates want you to believe about the economy including 'The President controls gas prices.' mrmoneymustache.com) The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics goes to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economy Assets Insurance 278

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 6, 2024

wsj.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims seem to have bottomed. bonddad.blogspot.com) Partisans don't let economic statistics stand in their way. nytimes.com) Behavioral Scientist's summer book list for 2024 including "Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI" by Ethan Mollick.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 278

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 7, 2024

Listening The best podcasts of 2024 including 'Stick the Landing' from The Ringer. theverge.com) Economy Ezra Klein talks with Annie Lowery about the growing economic disconnect. theatlantic.com) Michael Klein talks with David Rapson about the economics of EV adoption.

Economy 264

Economy Economics Investing Investments 264

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2023

(wapo.st) Finance Links to all the Wall Street 2024 investment outlooks. ft.com) Six ETF market predictions for 2024 including a cooling off in the covered-call space. morningstar.com) Economy November PCE came in at 3.2% down from 5.6% at the peak. calculatedriskblog.com) It makes sense that consumer confidence is rising.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 278

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 30, 2024

(cnbc.com) How Lilly plans to ramp production by 50% in 2024. disciplinefunds.com) The economic tables have turned as Greece, Spain and Portugal outperform. nytimes.com) Economy February Case-Shiller showed a 6.4% biopharmadive.com) CEOs Corporate execs get a good deal when they fly on their corporate jets.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Communication Media Economy 289

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 28, 2024

(apnews.com) State and local election officials are seeing more threats headed into 2024. fasterplease.substack.com) Economy The U.S. economy is in its best shape since the 1990s. economy is the envy of the rest of the developed world. economy is the envy of the rest of the developed world.

Marketing 277

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 277

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Perhaps the most important forecast is the 2024 median, which we think will shift up by 25bp to 4.875%, reflecting just 75bp of cuts next year." Economic projections will be released at this meeting. March 2023 0.0

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 23, 2024

fa-mag.com) Economy Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'What will happen with house prices in 2025?' (advisorperspectives.com) Scammers Online scammers are only getting more sophisticated. nextavenue.org) Banks don't want to held further accountable for elder financial abuse. (fa-mag.com)

Advertising 147

Advertising Media Banking Accounting 147

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. I do believe that the economic gains we are going to see in technology justify higher market prices. But that’s a very different discussion than 3% annually for 10 years.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

What’s Ahead for 2024. Bitcoin backers are looking forward to an ETF and other catalysts that could lift prices in 2024. Why They Can Do It Again in 2024. Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. Stay invested. Stay invested.

Distribution 273

Distribution Economy Clients Management 273

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 22, 2024

Markets Commodities are having a standout 2024. theinformation.com) Global The war in Ukraine has pushed up defense spending around the globel (awealthofcommonsense.com) South Korea's economic growth is slowing. semafor.com) Economy A look at broadening real wage growth. on.ft.com) Want a stake in a hot AI startup?

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Startup Media Economy 262

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. The Fed is now expected to cut rates in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? "My range in 2023.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 12, 2024

finance.yahoo.com) Pharma Five questions facing pharma in 2024 including 'Can anyone challenge Novo and Lilly in obesity?' axios.com) Economy There is little pressure on producer prices. ft.com) Are vibes driving negative media economic sentiment or the other way around? bbc.com) 99% of Americans live near a Mexican restaurant.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 278

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023. bloomberg.com) Four megatrends heading into 2024 including a more normal economy. open.spotify.com) Brink Lindsey talks economic dynamism with Tyler Cowen.

Economy 262

Economy Economics Management Assets 262

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 16, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the July FOMC meeting was stronger than the June projection. However, the staff continued to expect that real GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 would run below their estimate of potential output growth, leading to a small increase in the unemployment rate relative to its current level.

Economy 245

Economy Banking Economics Marketing 245

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2024

riabiz.com) Policy Violent crime is falling in many cities in 2024. thesling.org) Economy Sam Ro, "In other words, the American consumer isn’t spending as recklessly as they used to. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. axios.com) Mass deportation wouldn't accomplish what advocates think it would.

Financial Advising 277

Financial Advising Taxes Media Government 277

Carson Wealth

JULY 18, 2024

Carson Investment Research 2024 Midyear Outlook: Eyes on the Prize The economy continues to see a solid rate of expansion with low risk of a recession. We are targeting a total return for the S&P 500 of 17-20% in 2024. The aim of our Midyear Outlook 2024: Eyes on the Prize is to stay focused on what matters for investors.

Investing 138

Investing Investments Economy Economics 138

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 9, 2024

ft.com) Venture capital volume is likely to stay muted in 2024. ft.com) Economy How much is negative news sentiment driving bad economic vibes? (entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) Alternatives Are private equity firms finally going to ramp up their exits via IPO? axios.com) ETFs The pace of ETF closures picked up in 2023.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 264