Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 for the month as the share of firms reporting a decline in firm billings increased.

Clients 270

Clients Investments Investing Numbers 270

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Through November, starts were down 4.3%

Sales 147

Sales Investing Investments Commission 147

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 244

Economics Marketing Marketing Valuation 244

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will job growth slow in 2024? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. million jobs in 2024.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Government 173

Government Economics Investing Investments 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2024

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will RI change in 2024?

Sales 189

Sales Investing Investments Commission 189

The Big Picture

APRIL 25, 2024

Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. Business investment grew at a 2.9% Residential investment grew at a 13.9% economic strength.” A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data.

Economy 214

Economy Banking Economics Investments 214

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t. Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Axios reported yesterday that “2024 will be the U.S.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024. How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024? The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 27, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 7) Wage Growth: Wage growth was solid in 2024, up 4.0% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. YoY in November 2024. in July 2022.

Economics 147

Economics Sales Retirement Investing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. This graph uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I million SAAR in March, up 11.0%

Sales 182

Sales Economy Economics Investments 182

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 , according to the "second" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. to -5.0%.

Economics 147

Economics Investing Investments 147

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Strategy No one is immune from investment FOMO. ft.com) BlackRock ($BLK) reportedly has a deal to buy HPS Investment Partners, a private credit manager. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims. bespokepremium.com) The great bond bull market is over.

Media 162

Media Retail Economy Economics 162

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1%

Government 162

Government Food Economics Investments 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2024

The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 0.1% The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q1 and was up 4.1% And the office vacancy rate is at a record high, and this will hold down office investment.

Commission 278

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 278

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Peter Mallouk points out that investments made on days of all-time highs outperform investments made on all other days, Technicians will tell you All-Time Highs are bullish, because there is no selling resistance; behavioral economics suggests it’s bullish due to FOMO and plain old greed.

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investments 349

Carson Wealth

JULY 18, 2024

Carson Investment Research 2024 Midyear Outlook: Eyes on the Prize The economy continues to see a solid rate of expansion with low risk of a recession. We are targeting a total return for the S&P 500 of 17-20% in 2024. The aim of our Midyear Outlook 2024: Eyes on the Prize is to stay focused on what matters for investors.

Investing 139

Investing Investments Economy Economics 139

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Most FOMC participants expect around three 25 bp rate cuts in 2024. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024? My guess is there will be around 5 rate cuts in 2024, and the first cut is likely in March.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Numbers Investments 189

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. What will the participation rate be in December 2024? There are probably a few more people that will return to the workforce in 2024, pushing up the participation rate. Question #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?

Economics 182

Economics Sales Investing Investments 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. range in Q4 2024. Will the core inflation rate decrease further in 2024, and what will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024? by Q4 2024. Pandemic economics are weird. YoY through November. in October.

Economics 182

Economics Food Sales Investments 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. range in Q4 2024. What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024? Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question).

Economics 173

Economics Sales Investments Investing 173

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | November 25th, 2024 Pre-Holiday Optimism Lifts Markets Stocks advanced last week, powering ahead with pre-holiday optimism despite geopolitical tensions and two disappointing Q3 corporate updates. 5,6 Source: YCharts.com, November 23, 2024. 7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2024

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI May 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms continue to soften The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 42.4 Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 320

Clients Numbers Economics Investments 320

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Sept 27th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of yesterday’s durable goods report and this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the PCE report were slightly softer. q/q saar while 2Q GDP came in at 3.0% percent on September 27, up from 2.9

Economics 296

Economics Sales Investments Investing 296

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 1, 2024

Welcome to the January 2024 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

Retirement Planning 246

Retirement Planning Startup Compliance Clients 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will wages increase in 2024? YoY in 2024 according to the CES. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024?

Economics 162

Economics Sales Retirement Investing 162

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 16, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | December 16th, 2024 Mixed Data, Mixed Results. 5,6,7 Source: YCharts.com, December 14, 2024. Final Fed Meeting of 2024 The consumer price index ticked up to 2.7 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Begins. PAYX) Source: Zacks, December 10 , 2024.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. You might be surprised at the findings. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.

Marketing 316

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 316

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 24, 2025

downtownjoshbrown.com) How to find, and invest in, meme-worthy stocks. cnn.com) It looks like there was a stockpiling effect at the end of 2024. calculatedriskblog.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: basic economics. Strategy Market consensus is max bullish. wsj.com) More crypto ETFs are likely coming to market.

Food 147

Food Taxes Media Economy 147

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 28, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | October 28th, 2024 Stocks Mixed Ahead of Election Stocks were mixed last week as fresh economic data points and election-related uncertainty slowed market momentum. 6,7 Source: YCharts.com, October 26, 2024. 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: International Trade in Goods. Pending Home Sales.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 10, 2025

(decrypt.co) Finance What David Einhorn thinks about the state of active investing. sherwood.news) RIP Venu Sports: 2024-2025. cnbc.com) Global Trudeau's economic record in Canada is disappointing. ft.com) Big hedge funds are following a well-worn playbook. ft.com) Streaming How many ads do streaming services actually show?

Economy 162

Economy Media Economics Sales 162

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 23, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | December 23rd, 2024 Powell Signal Leaves Investors Cold Stocks were under pressure last week as the Fed Chair’s hawkish comments unsettled investors ahead of the holiday season. 6,7 Source: YCharts.com, December 21, 2024. 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Consumer Confidence. New Home Sales.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Probability Distribution of the next decade in S&P 500 returns (according to GS) Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research My colleague Ben Carlson buried the lede when he did an examination of all rolling 10-year periods going back to 1925. He found less than 9% of those 10 year periods had returns of 3% or less.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

Validea

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

This long-term pattern of increasing dividends points to these companies’ underlying strength – they’ve maintained enough profits and cash flow to keep boosting shareholder payments through multiple economic cycles.

Healthcare 52

Healthcare Manufacturing Economics Investments 52

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2023

(wapo.st) Finance Links to all the Wall Street 2024 investment outlooks. ft.com) Six ETF market predictions for 2024 including a cooling off in the covered-call space. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economic growth is trending around 2.0% (econbrowser.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: extreme arbitrage. at the peak.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 278

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 14, 2024

mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Strategy Five lessons from five great investing books. dariusforoux.com) Lessons learned from 20 years of investing including 'Insurance Is expensive for a reason.' mrmoneymustache.com) The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics goes to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economy Assets Insurance 278