Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Through November, starts were down 4.3%

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Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Government 173

Government Economics Investing Investments 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will job growth slow in 2024? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. million jobs in 2024.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2024

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will RI change in 2024?

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The Big Picture

APRIL 25, 2024

Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. Business investment grew at a 2.9% Residential investment grew at a 13.9% economic strength.” A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data.

Economy 214

Economy Banking Economics Investments 214

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t. Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Axios reported yesterday that “2024 will be the U.S.

Economics 64

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024. How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024? The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2%

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 27, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 7) Wage Growth: Wage growth was solid in 2024, up 4.0% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. YoY in November 2024. in July 2022.

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Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 , according to the "second" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. to -5.0%.

Economics 147

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Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Strategy No one is immune from investment FOMO. ft.com) BlackRock ($BLK) reportedly has a deal to buy HPS Investment Partners, a private credit manager. sherwood.news) Five economic reasons to be thankful including 'Low unemployment claims. bespokepremium.com) The great bond bull market is over.

Media 162

Media Retail Economy Economics 162

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1%

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2024

The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 0.1% The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q1 and was up 4.1% And the office vacancy rate is at a record high, and this will hold down office investment.

Commission 278

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Peter Mallouk points out that investments made on days of all-time highs outperform investments made on all other days, Technicians will tell you All-Time Highs are bullish, because there is no selling resistance; behavioral economics suggests it’s bullish due to FOMO and plain old greed.

Economics 349

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Carson Wealth

JULY 18, 2024

Carson Investment Research 2024 Midyear Outlook: Eyes on the Prize The economy continues to see a solid rate of expansion with low risk of a recession. We are targeting a total return for the S&P 500 of 17-20% in 2024. The aim of our Midyear Outlook 2024: Eyes on the Prize is to stay focused on what matters for investors.

Investing 139

Investing Investments Economy Economics 139

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Most FOMC participants expect around three 25 bp rate cuts in 2024. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024? My guess is there will be around 5 rate cuts in 2024, and the first cut is likely in March.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Numbers Investing 189

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. What will the participation rate be in December 2024? There are probably a few more people that will return to the workforce in 2024, pushing up the participation rate. Question #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?

Economics 182

Economics Sales Investing Investments 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. range in Q4 2024. Will the core inflation rate decrease further in 2024, and what will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024? by Q4 2024. Pandemic economics are weird. YoY through November. in October.

Economics 182

Economics Food Sales Investing 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. range in Q4 2024. What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024? Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question).

Economics 173

Economics Sales Investing Investments 173

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | November 25th, 2024 Pre-Holiday Optimism Lifts Markets Stocks advanced last week, powering ahead with pre-holiday optimism despite geopolitical tensions and two disappointing Q3 corporate updates. 5,6 Source: YCharts.com, November 23, 2024. 7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2024

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI May 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms continue to soften The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 42.4 Click on graph for larger image.

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

Sept 27th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of yesterday’s durable goods report and this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the PCE report were slightly softer. q/q saar while 2Q GDP came in at 3.0% percent on September 27, up from 2.9

Economics 296

Economics Sales Investments Investing 296

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 1, 2024

Welcome to the January 2024 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

Retirement Planning 246

Retirement Planning Compliance Startup Clients 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will wages increase in 2024? YoY in 2024 according to the CES. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024?

Economics 162

Economics Sales Retirement Investing 162

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 16, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | December 16th, 2024 Mixed Data, Mixed Results. 5,6,7 Source: YCharts.com, December 14, 2024. Final Fed Meeting of 2024 The consumer price index ticked up to 2.7 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Begins. PAYX) Source: Zacks, December 10 , 2024.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. You might be surprised at the findings. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.

Marketing 316

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 316

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 24, 2025

downtownjoshbrown.com) How to find, and invest in, meme-worthy stocks. cnn.com) It looks like there was a stockpiling effect at the end of 2024. calculatedriskblog.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: basic economics. Strategy Market consensus is max bullish. wsj.com) More crypto ETFs are likely coming to market.

Food 147

Food Taxes Media Economy 147

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 28, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | October 28th, 2024 Stocks Mixed Ahead of Election Stocks were mixed last week as fresh economic data points and election-related uncertainty slowed market momentum. 6,7 Source: YCharts.com, October 26, 2024. 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: International Trade in Goods. Pending Home Sales.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Probability Distribution of the next decade in S&P 500 returns (according to GS) Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research My colleague Ben Carlson buried the lede when he did an examination of all rolling 10-year periods going back to 1925. He found less than 9% of those 10 year periods had returns of 3% or less.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2023

(wapo.st) Finance Links to all the Wall Street 2024 investment outlooks. ft.com) Six ETF market predictions for 2024 including a cooling off in the covered-call space. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economic growth is trending around 2.0% (econbrowser.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: extreme arbitrage. at the peak.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 278

Validea

NOVEMBER 26, 2024

This long-term pattern of increasing dividends points to these companies’ underlying strength – they’ve maintained enough profits and cash flow to keep boosting shareholder payments through multiple economic cycles.

Healthcare 52

Healthcare Manufacturing Economics Investments 52

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 14, 2024

mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Strategy Five lessons from five great investing books. dariusforoux.com) Lessons learned from 20 years of investing including 'Insurance Is expensive for a reason.' mrmoneymustache.com) The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics goes to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economy Assets Insurance 278

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 30, 2024

Strategy Widen your investing lens. cnbc.com) How Lilly plans to ramp production by 50% in 2024. disciplinefunds.com) The economic tables have turned as Greece, Spain and Portugal outperform. awealthofcommonsense.com) The best investors are running their own race. wsj.com) This CEO is taking advantage of his company discount.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Communication Media Economy 289

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 3, 2024

Markets A look back at Q1 2024 asset class returns. novelinvestor.com) Growth and value performance flip-flopped in March 2024. ft.com) Alternatives Alternative investments aren't going to save you in an apocalypse. bonddad.blogspot.com) Part-time is not a negative for the economy if it isn't for economic reasons.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Economy Media Economics 264

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

What’s Ahead for 2024. Bitcoin backers are looking forward to an ETF and other catalysts that could lift prices in 2024. Why They Can Do It Again in 2024. Stay invested. Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S.

Distribution 273

Distribution Economy Clients Management 273

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | November 4th, 2024 Stocks Retreat on Jobs and Election Concerns Stocks slid last week as mixed economic data and strong-but-not-spectacular Q3 corporate reports failed to inspire investors. Source: YCharts.com, November 2, 2024. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Motor Vehicle Sales.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 7, 2024

Listening The best podcasts of 2024 including 'Stick the Landing' from The Ringer. theverge.com) Economy Ezra Klein talks with Annie Lowery about the growing economic disconnect. theatlantic.com) Michael Klein talks with David Rapson about the economics of EV adoption.

Economy 264

Economy Economics Investments Investing 264