Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. 2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, December 5th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. million from 7.86

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third estimate). 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2024 The consensus is for a 0.1%

Retail 262

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 262

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in April. million from 4.31

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2024

bloomberg.com) Traditional actively managed equity mutual funds saw record outflows in 2024. heathercoxrichardson.substack.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers showed a 3.6% nextbigideaclub.com) 11 of the best things from 2024 including 'The Wild Robot.' (cnbc.com) Gold had its best year since 2010. Well, you should.

Media 173

Media Economy Numbers Economics 173

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in May.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in March. million from 4.36

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.47% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.47% as of October 31, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 235,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Planning Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. million from 4.22

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Businesses are also feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, as November saw a rapid increase in the number of Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcies.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 30, 2023

Most notable is the fact that industry associations are not the drivers of advisor conferences that they once were; while a decade ago, 75%+ of this "Best Conferences" list consisted of various events run by industry associations, now it numbers less than 25%.

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Numbers Budgeting Financial Planning 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 YoY in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

The Big Picture

JUNE 13, 2024

I wrote: It appears to me that the Journal got that number from BLS. Its numbers are fake. And second, always recall what Joan Robinson taught us so long ago: “The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.”

Food 305

Food Numbers Economics Portfolio 305

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Most FOMC participants expect around three 25 bp rate cuts in 2024. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024? My guess is there will be around 5 rate cuts in 2024, and the first cut is likely in March.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Numbers Investing 189

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 1, 2024

Welcome to the April 2024 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

Estate Planning 242

Estate Planning Financial Advisor Clients Startup 242

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rose by $184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Aggregate delinquency rates increased in Q1 2024, with 3.2% rise from 2023Q4.

Economics 305

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 305

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 1, 2024

Welcome to the January 2024 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

Retirement Planning 246

Retirement Planning Startup Compliance Clients 246

Calculated Risk

JULY 13, 2024

Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. -- Tuesday, July 16th -- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. up from 1.0. -- Friday, July 19th -- 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for June 2024 The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, unchanged from -6.0.

Retail 182

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 182

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2024

From the AIA: ABI May 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms continue to soften The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 42.4 The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 320

Clients Numbers Economics Investing 320

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

apolloacademy.com) Finance How cold-storage operator Lineage ($LINE) became the biggest IPO of 2024 so far. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

License 289

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 289

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 3, 2024

Markets A look back at Q1 2024 asset class returns. novelinvestor.com) Growth and value performance flip-flopped in March 2024. bonddad.blogspot.com) Part-time is not a negative for the economy if it isn't for economic reasons. bloomberg.com) How immigration is affecting the jobs numbers.

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Economy Media Numbers 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 10, 2024

For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report will be released. -- Monday, August 12th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, August 13th -- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July. The key reports this week are July CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2%

Retail 182

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 182

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | November 25th, 2024 Pre-Holiday Optimism Lifts Markets Stocks advanced last week, powering ahead with pre-holiday optimism despite geopolitical tensions and two disappointing Q3 corporate updates. 5,6 Source: YCharts.com, November 23, 2024. 7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2024

@TBPInvictus here: If you’re not aware of the brouhaha that was stirred about a year or so ago when CA Gov Gavin Newsom signed into law (taking effect April 1, 2024) a new $20 minimum wage for so-called “limited service” (a/k/a fast food or QSR) restaurant workers, read up here , here , or here. Its numbers are fake.

Food 290

Food Media Numbers Economics 290

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. As of January 1 2024, about 70% of all mortgage holders had rates three full percentage points below market prices. Houses are another legitimate and big complaint. And that’s before we get to the Lock-In effect ).

Budgeting 321

Budgeting Economics Sales Media 321

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Perhaps the most important forecast is the 2024 median, which we think will shift up by 25bp to 4.875%, reflecting just 75bp of cuts next year." Economic projections will be released at this meeting. March 2023 0.0

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 28, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | October 28th, 2024 Stocks Mixed Ahead of Election Stocks were mixed last week as fresh economic data points and election-related uncertainty slowed market momentum. 6,7 Source: YCharts.com, October 26, 2024. 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: International Trade in Goods.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2024

Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. -- Tuesday, April 16th -- 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for March. The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month. -- Friday, April 19th -- 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2024

Retail 162

Retail Manufacturing Food Sales 162

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in June. million from 4.42

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2024

The number of job openings (black) were down 10% year-over-year and Quits were down 12% year-over-year. 2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, September 5th -- 8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August.

Manufacturing 189

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 189

Calculated Risk

APRIL 24, 2024

From the AIA: ABI March 2024: Architecture firm billings retreat further in March Business conditions at architecture firms softened in March, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.6 This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2024.

Economics 240

Economics Clients Investing Investments 240

Calculated Risk

MARCH 16, 2024

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. -- Tuesday, March 19th -- 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for February. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections.

Sales 162

Sales Manufacturing Numbers Economics 162

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 2, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | December 2nd, 2024 Solid Gains for Thanksgiving Week Stocks posted solid gains over a short and busy holiday week as investors parsed fresh economic data, comments on potential future trade policy, and a few Q3 reports from technology companies. 6 Source: YCharts.com, November 30, 2024.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 52

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). My guess is multi-family starts will decline in 2023 as rents soften and as the record number of housing units under construction are completed. The Fed is now expected to cut rates in 2024. I followed up with a brief post on each question.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | November 4th, 2024 Stocks Retreat on Jobs and Election Concerns Stocks slid last week as mixed economic data and strong-but-not-spectacular Q3 corporate reports failed to inspire investors. Source: YCharts.com, November 2, 2024. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Motor Vehicle Sales.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | November 18th, 2024 Rally Loses Steam; Fed Weighs Move Stocks fell last week as the postelection rally lost momentum amid an inflation uptick and cautious comments from Fed officials. 6 Source: YCharts.com, November 16, 2024. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Fed Official Austan Goolsbee speaks.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 52