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Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Moreover, historically extreme valuations in a small handful of mega-cap stocks that account for about 30% of the market weight in the S&P 500 (i.e.,
Weekly Market Insights | December 16th, 2024 Mixed Data, Mixed Results. 5,6,7 Source: YCharts.com, December 14, 2024. Final Fed Meeting of 2024 The consumer price index ticked up to 2.7 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Begins. PAYX) Source: Zacks, December 10 , 2024.
Weekly Market Insights | October 28th, 2024 Stocks Mixed Ahead of Election Stocks were mixed last week as fresh economic data points and election-related uncertainty slowed market momentum. 6,7 Source: YCharts.com, October 26, 2024. 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: International Trade in Goods. Pending Home Sales.
Weekly Market Insights | December 23rd, 2024 Powell Signal Leaves Investors Cold Stocks were under pressure last week as the Fed Chair’s hawkish comments unsettled investors ahead of the holiday season. 6,7 Source: YCharts.com, December 21, 2024. 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Consumer Confidence. New Home Sales.
Weekly Market Insights | November 4th, 2024 Stocks Retreat on Jobs and Election Concerns Stocks slid last week as mixed economic data and strong-but-not-spectacular Q3 corporate reports failed to inspire investors. Source: YCharts.com, November 2, 2024. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Motor Vehicle Sales.
In this episode, Larry Swedroe shares nine critical lessons that the markets taught investors in 2024. Drawing from decades of experience, Larry explains why market forecasts consistently fail, why valuations can’t be used for market timing, and how seemingly obvious economic events often lead to surprising market outcomes.
She observes it is less about the things investors tend to focus on — “technical analysis, geopolitics, behavioral finance and even skirt hemline trends” — and more about specific measures she tracks in sentiment, valuation, macro-economic areas. The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990.
Weekly Market Insights | December 2nd, 2024 Solid Gains for Thanksgiving Week Stocks posted solid gains over a short and busy holiday week as investors parsed fresh economic data, comments on potential future trade policy, and a few Q3 reports from technology companies. 6 Source: YCharts.com, November 30, 2024.
Weekly Market Insights | November 18th, 2024 Rally Loses Steam; Fed Weighs Move Stocks fell last week as the postelection rally lost momentum amid an inflation uptick and cautious comments from Fed officials. 6 Source: YCharts.com, November 16, 2024. This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Fed Official Austan Goolsbee speaks.
Weekly Market Insights | December 9th, 2024 Markets Mixed; Jobs Back on Track Stocks were mixed during the first trading week of December. 6,7,8 Source: YCharts.com, December 7, 2024. 9 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Productivity and Costs. AVGO), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Source: Zacks, December 6 , 2024.
Weekly Market Insights | December 30th, 2024 Holiday Spending Up Stocks notched a slight gain over the holiday week. 4,5 Source: YCharts.com, December 28, 2024. percent in 2024, compared with 3.1 6 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Pending Home Sales. GBX) Source: Zacks, December 27 , 2024. percent in 2023.
Stocks Rally To Record Highs Stocks traded in a fairly tight range for the first half of the short week, yawning at the lack of economic data while awaiting earnings results from one key company that creates chips that power the artificial intelligence operations of many firms. Source: YCharts.com, February 24, 2024. A), eBay Inc.
1,2,3,4,5 Source: YCharts.com, January 13, 2024. A Tale Of Two Inflation Reports The biggest economic news last week was fresh inflation data. 6,7,8 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Index. CNBC.com, January 8, 2024. CNBC.com, January 9, 2024. CNBC.com, January 10, 2024.
Weekly Market Insights: Market Retreats On Inflation, Economic Reports Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Stocks fell last week as investors reacted to disappointing inflation updates and other economic reports that fell short of estimates. 3 Source: YCharts.com, February 17, 2024. CNBC, February 16, 2024.
Weekly Market Insights: Excitement Around Big Tech Continues Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Stocks continued their upward climb last week as excitement around big tech continued; positive economic reports stoked investors’ belief that the Federal Reserve has pulled off a soft landing. Core inflation was 3.2%
Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” But we won’t know how big a losing trade it might be until early 2024, when we see the updated valuations. Forecasting Folly : Did you get sucked into the endless predictions of doom and gloom ?
(entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) Strategy 12 lessons the markets taught investors in 2023 including 'Valuations cannot be used to time markets.' realreturns.blog) Lessons learned from markets in 2023 including 'Years like 2023 are why investors should not put much weight into market or economic predictions.' wired.com)
Weekly Market Insights | September 9th, 2024 Rough Start, Unsettling End. Stocks fell last week as soft economic data rattled investors focused on the Fed’s next move with interest rates. 1,2 Economic Data Unsettles Investors The four-day trading week got off to a rough start as weak manufacturing data reawakened recessionary fears.
4 Source: YCharts.com, March 23, 2024. 4,5 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: New Home Sales. Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; March 18, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. The Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2024 2. CNBC.com, March 20, 2024 3.
3 Source: YCharts.com, February 10, 2024. Economic Strength The strength of the U.S. 5 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; February 8, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. Retail Sales.
3,4 Source: YCharts.com, March 16, 2024. 5 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Housing Market Index. Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; March 13, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024 2. CNBC, March 15, 2024 4.
4,5 Source: YCharts.com, March 9, 2024. 6,7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Price Index. Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; March 2, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. The Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2024 2. CNBC, March 7, 2024 4.
1 Economic news also helped boost markets. 2 Source: YCharts.com, March 2, 2024. Consumers Remain Upbeat With all the excitement over AI, it’s easy to overlook some key economic indicators that also speak to the underlying strength of the economy—specifically, consumer data. percent in January versus December—and 2.4 Beige Book.
2 Source: YCharts.com, February 3, 2024. 3 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: ISM Services Index. Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; February 2, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. CNBC.com, January 29, 2024 2. CNBC.com, February 2, 2024 4.
Weekly Market Insights : New Years Blues Stocks retreated in the first trading week of 2024, struggling a bit after a celebratory end to last year as investors second-guessed Fed signals and fretted over lingering inflation concerns. Source: YCharts.com, January 6, 2024. The Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2024 2.
6 This Week: Key Economic Data Wednesday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Source: Econoday, December 29, 2023 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials.
Historically, this bracket has been dominated by the tech sector, but after years of outsized gains, big tech valuations are stretched. However, shifting economic conditions, a potential rate-cut cycle, and valuation opportunities have created a renewed focus on small and mid-cap stocks, particularly in financials and energy.
From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 6–7, 2024. A couple of participants noted concerns about asset valuation pressures in other markets. Excerpt: In their discussion of financial stability, participants who commented noted vulnerabilities to the financial system that they assessed warranted monitoring.
Weekly Market Insights: Big Win For Big Tech Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Stocks finished higher last week, with big tech again leading amid lingering uncertainty over how continued economic strength would influence the Fed’s rate decision. Source: YCharts.com, January 20, 2024. Wednesday: PMI Composite.
Additionally, foreign investors are shifting funds from India to China, attracted by lower valuations. These valuations reflect different economic conditions and investor sentiments in each country. On the other hand, low P/E ratios might signal undervaluation or economic challenges.
Click here or below to see or enlarge the entire bracket for 2024. We still like Energy this year and that is especially so with it being one of the most beaten down economic sectors from 2023. That said, it loses early in round one simply due to us believing it’s close to full valuation and due for a breather.
Stock Market Assessment S&P 500 In 2024, the S&P 500 was up 25%. If you combine 2023 and 2024, the S&P 500 was up 57%. Will the Federal Reserve continue to lower interest rates, supporting valuations? Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written.
Market Drama Featuring Zoe CEO & Founder, Andres Garcia-Amaya, CFA December 9th, 2024 Watch Time: 4.3 Market Valuations : Multiples are no longer considered cheap. Economic Updates: Payroll data: 227k new jobs added, above 220k expected. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated.
Weekly Market Insights | August 19th, 2024 The S&P 500’s Best Weekly Gain of The Year. Stocks posted solid gains last week, buoyed by robust economic data and constructive comments from Fed officials. 6,7 Source: YCharts.com, August 17, 2024. 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Leading Indicators.
Weekly Market Insights | September 23rd, 2024 Fed Cuts Interest Rate by Half-Point Stocks moved higher last week after the Federal Reserve’s half-point rate cut, bolstered by multiple data points supporting a cooling but still strong economy and decelerating inflation. 7,8 Source: YCharts.com, September 21, 2024. percent, 1.7
Carson Investment Research 2024 Market Outlook: Seeing Eye to Eye We are targeting a total return of 11-13% for the S&P 500 Index in 2024 and 4-6% for the Bloomberg U.S. Consensus has moved toward our view in 2024, but we still see quite a bit of gloom out there, with several strategists holding to their recession calls.
Weekly Market Insights | July 22nd, 2024 Investors Shift, Anticipating Lower Interest Rates Stocks were under pressure last week as investors appeared to rotate out of mega-cap tech stocks and into areas that may benefit from lower interest rates. 4,5,6 Source: YCharts.com, July 20, 2024. The Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2024 2.
Weekly Market Insights | August 5th, 2024 Stocks Fall, Concerns Rise. Stocks fell broadly last week as investors looked past upbeat Fed comments and focused on disappointing corporate reports and weaker-than-expected economic data. 5,6 Source: YCharts.com, August 3, 2024. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S.
7 Source: YCharts.com, October 5, 2024. 9 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Fed Officials Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, and Alberto Musalem speak. Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; October 4, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. IRS.gov, July 24, 2024 11.
6 Source: YCharts.com, October 12, 2024. 7,8 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Fed Official Christopher Waller speaks. Source: I nvestors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar ; October 9, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. The Wall Street Journal, October 11, 2024 2.
Weekly Market Insights | September 16th, 2024 Stocks Rally Ahead of Fed Meeting Stocks rallied last week as investors received better-than-expected consumer and producer inflation data. 4,5 Source: YCharts.com, September 14, 2024. 7 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Index. Retail Sales.
Weekly Market Insights | October 21st, 2024 Sixth Week of Gains on Wall Street Stocks posted modest gains last week, with quarterly earnings season in full swing and the election on the horizon. 5 Source: YCharts.com, October 19, 2024. UPS) Source: Zacks, October 18, 2024 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only.
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