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Ten Economic Questions for 2025

Calculated Risk

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. There is also the potential for significant policy mistakes, but for now I'm assuming any policy changes will not significantly impact the economy in 2025.

Economics 290
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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

Consider this December 29, 2024, year-end review in Bloomberg : “By this time last year, the stock markets rally had blown past even the most optimistic targets, and Wall Street forecasters were convinced it couldnt keep up the dizzying pace. In “ How Not To Invest ” (coming March 18!)

Banking 345
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs? There was strong job growth in 2021 and 2022 as the economy bounced back from the pandemic recession.

Economy 298
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Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Q4-over-Q4 in 2024. How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024? But there is a risk that the Fed will be overly tight in 2024. The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2% recession this year.

Economy 200
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Ten Economic Questions for 2024

Calculated Risk

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. Q4-over-Q4 in 2024. range in Q4 2024.

Economics 226
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AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Reports Sluggish Conditions to Start 2024"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 18th Consecutive Month

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Reports Sluggish Conditions to Start 2024 rchitecture firm billings remained soft entering into 2024, with an AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 46.2

Economy 309
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March 2024 State Coincident Indexes Ease

The Big Picture

A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. Business investment grew at a 2.9% Residential investment grew at a 13.9% However, it’s not quite all it appears.

Economy 214