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Weekly Market Insights : New Years Blues Stocks retreated in the first trading week of 2024, struggling a bit after a celebratory end to last year as investors second-guessed Fed signals and fretted over lingering inflation concerns. Source: YCharts.com, January 6, 2024. The Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2024 2.
At the Money: Benefits of Quantitative Investing (March 20, 2024) Throughout history, investing has been a lot more “Art” than “Science.” As it turns out, there are ways you can use data to your advantage, even if you’re not a math wizard. Barry Ritholtz : So let’s break that into two halves, starting with valuation.
Global Leaders Strategy Investment Letter: January 2024 bgregorio Wed, 01/17/2024 - 05:23 Just want the PDF? We all know that a 55% hit rate is the top decile across the industry, and the maths above demonstrates why. nor on valuation and IRR in order to avoid type 1 errors of inclusion.
He has a very interesting approach to thinking about market valuations and strategies and when to deploy capital, when to go with the crowd, when to lean against the crowd, and has amassed and excellent track record. Second part of our framework is valuation fundamental work. Well, that means valuations are probably too high.
But there’s always gotta be some element of the valuation really being compelling. But even in the book I wrote in 2014, you could see that the focus on competitive advantage can never be absolute, you always have to take valuation into consideration. But maybe second to valuation as a primary consideration.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. And that was in June of 2024. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.
DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that, because that gap in valuation has persisted for a long time. How durable is that shift, given how large that gap has gotten in valuation between US stocks and the rest of the developed world?
I got the sense that, so Churnin takes 51% for a fairly modest valuation, 10 or $15 million. Like if you look today 2024 in music, you can’t break out a star anymore. That, that gives Barstool a half a billion dollar valuation. 00:40:26 [Speaker Changed] They, they know, they know math, they know math.
Now, we’re shifting to more international places like China, Europe, et cetera, that are really growing, and that valuations are cheaper. So, listen, you know, I think we’re going to see a rally in interest rates probably in 2024 and ’25, because I think rates will go back, the 10-year Treasury will go back to 2.5
And I was a math nerd as a kid. 00:44:11 [Speaker Changed] Kathy would may have her own valuation, so, but I can’t replicate it myself. Why is there such a spread between US domestic and overseas companies in terms of you’re a value investor in terms of straight up valuation? My audio engineer is Kaylee Lapper.
And we’ve automated the, the appraisal process for valuation, both intrinsic value, meaning like, where would we pay it, where would we buy it, and where is the fair market price that asset from that level, from price and from consumer behavior now. We’ve gathered up all the information you would need to do an appraisal.
It was about $170 million valuation. So here’s the math, Barry. If you have seven $50 incremental year, then every 10 year old in America, when they enter into the fifth or sixth grade and the teacher says, Hey, today we’re gonna talk about math or compounding or stocks or capitalism, they’ll say, open up.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
00:24:49 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk a little bit about valuation in the public markets. Hard to say fourth quarter, 2024, US markets aren’t at the very least fully priced, if not richly priced. Does that valuation difference in the public markets extend to private markets as well? Hence the valuation gap.
RITHOLTZ: I’m going to take that bet with you for 2024. SCHWARTZ: But even broad developed markets, they’re half the valuation of the U.S. And I’m like, “Well, if Bob Shiller is putting on the seatbelts, maybe he’s done the math, maybe I should be wearing a seatbelt in the back of the car.” SIEGEL: Right.
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