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Understanding Tax Compliance and Risk Management Ultra-high-net-worth individuals face unique tax challenges, including high rates and ever-changing complex tax codes. Navigating these tax issues can be incredibly complex, necessitating a comprehensive compliance and risk management plan. Estate taxes also offer challenges.
Bracketology (2025 Edition) As my friend Mark Newfield likes to say , the Forecasters Hall of Fame has zero members. NARRATOR: “Next time you are tempted to make a market prediction, you might recall that the global economy has a few more than 52 variables.” Thanks for reading. And he’s right, of course.
The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. The economy created 151,000 jobs in February, more or less consistent with expectations.
20% Back-To-Back Years Bode Well for 2025 Many bears are back at it, claiming that because stocks are looking at back-to-back 20% gains 2025 must be doomed. The past few weeks we’ve discussed why we think this bull market is alive and well, but we also see no major reasons to expect the economy to fall into a recession in 2025.
In last weeks commentary, we took a look at tariff policy, the market uncertainty it was creating, and what was going on in the broader economy. But whether were looking at the current state of the economy or market history, our focus is always on facts over feelings. These guidelines dont mean we ignore context. What Should You Do?
Current Market Volatility Normal for a Bull Market The S&P 500 is off to a bit of a rocky start in 2025, an extension of weakness in December 2024. Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. on Friday alone. million average per year).
If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. range (or even lower) in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.
Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). For reference, the 2019 average was 166,000.
Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. In other words, after back-to-back 20% gains the past two years, maybe a well-deserved break to kick off 2025 is perfectly normal. Heres the thing.
As long-time readers know, Carson Investment Research has been on record since November of 2022 that the lows were indeed in and prices were going higher, and that the economy would surprise to the upside and avoid a recession. That’s going to be a big tailwind for the economy, and markets, as we go into 2025.
And companies can grow earnings as long as the global economy grows, which is something it has been doing much more often than not for several millennia. There have been short-term fluctuations when the economy has slowed, but the overall trend has been strong. economy can continue to grow, and the rest follows.
The chemical sector has still displayed exceptional potential and is further expected to reach US$ 304 billion by 2025. This was primarily due to the lack of economies of scale in our country which is required to bring down the cost of chemicals at international prices. The sector is expected to register a CAGR of 9.3% 118,325 2322 92.11
Industry Overview The Indian Fintech industry is expected to reach US$ 150 billion by 2025, making it the third largest in the world. Any adverse change in the economy of these regions could negatively impact the bank’s financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows. In Closing ESAF Bank, with a 27.6%
I mean, if you take out the government spending, you probably are on a recession in a private economy. And that’s your focus on government, both fiscal and monetary support for the economy. You’re looking at all these different aspects of the market, of the economy, of, of various government policies.
The company aims to expand its use of recycled aluminum to 80% by 2025. An example of American Tower’s SBA is its providing of shared backup power generators for about 12% of its 27,200 towers in the U.S. Sustainability can create competitive advantages and help a company avoid risk, grow revenue, reduce costs or expand market share.
The company aims to expand its use of recycled aluminum to 80% by 2025. An example of American Tower’s SBA is its providing of shared backup power generators for about 12% of its 27,200 towers in the U.S. Sustainability can create competitive advantages and help a company avoid risk, grow revenue, reduce costs or expand market share.
It is earnings, and when you have an economy that continues to surprise to the upside, you tend to have solid earnings. We continue to think the economy looks pretty good and below are two reasons why. Compliance Case # 02524369_112524_C The post Market Commentary: Five Reasons to Be Thankful appeared first on Carson Wealth.
The bottom line is if the economy is strong, earnings are expanding, inflation is under control, and the Fed is cutting, then stocks can do just fine regardless of who is in the White House. Fortunately, as we head into 2025, we think all of those market tailwinds remain firmly in place. And it has cooled quite a bit.
It was interesting to say the least, with members projecting higher inflation, higher unemployment, and slower growth: Their 2025 core PCE projection rose from 2.5% The 2025 unemployment rate projection rose from 4.3% Real GDP projection for 2025 fell from 2.1% The 2025 unemployment rate projection rose from 4.3%
The Federal Reserves (Fed) January 2025 meeting held no surprises. at the end of 2025, implying two rate cuts in 2025 (each worth 0.25%-points), although that may change this week as the market absorbs the impact of newly announced tariffs. at the end of 2025. at the end of 2025.
Yes, worries spiked last week over fears about sticky inflation (which we dont see) and fewer rate cuts next year (which wasnt really a surprise to us just two weeks ago our Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese wrote about expecting just 2-3 cuts in 2025). Back in September, eight members projected 2025 policy rates below the median.
Worries about tariffs, what President Trump might do next, the Fed, geopolitical drama, inflation, AI, and more have dominated the headlines and caused a good deal of worry for many investors in 2025. The good news is we dont see that happening anytime soon and 2025 still looks like it should be a nice year for investors.
Abraham Lincoln What a start to 2025, nearly picking up where 2024 left off. This matters, as the first five days in 2025 were up 0.62%, suggesting some potential good news for the bulls. Here we found that stocks once again do much better in post-election years under a second term president, yet another positive for 2025.
Yet, the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. In fact, the risk is that the Fed falls into the trap of believing that they do have a problem, based on lagged data, and take an extended pause in 2025. In fact, the November Producer Price Index report suggests that core PCE (which takes inputs from CPI and PPI) will clock in around 0.1%.
The ingenuity and flexibility of our country’s economy is second to none, and Americans are valued for their resolve and fortitude. In exchange for suspending the debt ceiling through January 2025, the two parties agreed to caps on spending. of GDP in 2024 and 2025. What’s in the “Deal”? Welcome news indeed.
Those high rates arent good for some important areas of the economy, but they do have their upside for savers. In 2016 2017 Trumps election was seen as a major boon to smaller businesses and cyclical sectors of the economy leading up to inauguration. on the release day (January 15 , 2025). we had over the last eight quarters.
Our 2025 Outlook is coming out in just a couple of weeks!) So as we close out 2024 and launch into the new year, hear are seven things all investors should keep in mind in 2025. Go Into the New Year Expecting a Double-Digit Decline in 2025 Remember August 2024? Thats because they tend to be caused by recessions.
Geopolitical worries are high, but historically the impact of global events on stocks has been short-lived, especially if the economy is strong. While geopolitics is a near-term risk, three major themes for 2024 are worth watching: Data continues to support an overall positive outlook for the economy. and hides underlying strength.
Tariff Tussle Resolved, But Its Only the Opening Round In this weeks Commentary we take a deeper dive on tariffs and their potential impact on the economy and markets. In Carson Investment Researchs 2025 Outlook , we looked at both policy opportunities and risks, including tariff policy, for markets in 2025.
Year Three of a Bull Market As we noted inour 2025 Outlook: Animal Spirits , stocks usually see huge gains the first two years of a bull market (just like they did this time) and the third year can be more choppy and frustrating. Heres the other side to things and unfortunately where things stand in 2025.
Welcome to our first Weekly Market Commentary for 2025. Short-term yields fell on Fed rate cuts, although fewer than expected at the start of the year as the economy topped expectations. We thought that made it a good time highlight the potential policy mistakes that could undermine our otherwise bullish policy outlook for 2025.
No matter how you slice it, this has been a great time to be an investor and it’s a pretty good referendum on the state of the economy. If Congress does nothing, a lot of elements of the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA, which was signed into law by former President Trump) will expire on December 31, 2025.
In fact, it might be a reason to remain in the “glass half full” camp as we head into 2025. Despite the tendency to view the president as responsible for the economy, the president alone often has a relatively small impact compared to broader economic forces. In fact, the economy has been pretty good the last two years.
economy, only to get past those worries almost as quickly and see stocks move right back to new highs (or near new highs). A Bullish Signal for the Economy Two things to think about today. Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) ended 15 years ago our economy has been in a recession only 1.1% of the time. of the time.
Following the election there was an initial wave of enthusiasm consistent with our view that policy opportunities outweigh policy risks, as we discussed in our Outlook 2025. The current median forecast by the Fed is for two rate cuts in 2025 while the market-implied expectation is just shy of 2.5. Bush (1.9%). On to the topic at hand.
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