Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2025

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. -- Monday, March 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.

Sales 162

Sales Economics Manufacturing Government 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Contacts expected prices to continue to rise in 2025, with some noting the potential for higher tariffs to contribute to price increases. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Energy activity was mixed.

Economics 162

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 162

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 1, 2025

March 2025 The S&P 500 returned -5.63% in March 2025. on.spdji.com) How major asset classes performed in March 2025. axios.com) Money management 230 new ETFs have been launched in 2025, to-date. capitalspectator.com) The asset asset quilt updated for Q1 performance. morningstar.com) Is the Yale Model dead?

Economics 147

Economics Assets Manufacturing Government 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). from 510 thousand SAAR in January 2025.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Economy 309

The Big Picture

MARCH 31, 2025

The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. 2) What will their impact be on economic activity and inflation? I didnt understand this as representing a significant threat to the established economic order. In a word, the U.S.

Taxes 207

Taxes Economics Education Planning 207

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, February 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, February 11th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.

Retail 162

Retail Sales Financial Services Food 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2025.

Clients 270

Clients Investments Investing Numbers 270

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. Mar 6th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics 179

Economics Management Investing Investments 179

Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2025 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8

Food 255

Food Economics 255

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

home price growth in January 2025 was largely flat at 3.3% increase from January 2025 to January 2026, there are stark differences between regions. Despite this, national single-family home prices are forecast to reach a new peak in March 2025. From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Largely Flat in January U.S.

Economics 162

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 162

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. June 2024 1.9 June 2024 3.9

Banking 182

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 18, 2025

Martin Luther King Jr. -- Tuesday, January 21st -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Wednesday, January 22nd -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. . -- Monday, January 20th -- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Economics Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2025

At 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, N.Y.

Economics 147

Economics 147

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 12, 2024

Falling interest rates and the disappearance of a valuation gap with private real estate should also add tailwinds for publicly listed real estate.

Economics 266

Economics Valuation 266

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2025

It made me realize that, despite my extensive research into the psychology underlying behavioral economics, I suffered from the exact same cognitive errors as everyone else. Coming March 18, 2025 see more at HowNOTtoInvestbook.com The post My Bias Blind Spot Bubble appeared first on The Big Picture. But it was.

Economics 308

Economics Assets Clients Investments 308

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28, 2025. Treasury yields continue to be volatile as economic uncertainty dominates markets. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6

Government 147

Government Economics Sales Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 YoY in January.

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2024

This is likely driving owners and developers to remain optimistic about 2025 market conditions and pushing more projects into the planning queue.” This index suggests a slowdown in 2024 and early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare 331

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 331

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added

Economics 347

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 347

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 9, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel.

Economics 147

Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2025. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The Philadelphia Feds U.S.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 31, 2025

[Jan 31st estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.9 The initial estimate of last quarter's real GDP growth rate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 30 was 2.3

Economics 147

Economics Sales 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel and Brent at $79.76 per barrel.

Economics 147

Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 2829, 2025. Participants noted that policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 23, 2024

Markets Higher for longer is the theme going into 2025. fa-mag.com) Economy Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'What will happen with house prices in 2025?' calculatedriskblog.com) Ten risks for 2025 including the introduction of tariffs. apolloacademy.com) There's large cap growth stocks in the U.S.,

Advertising 147

Advertising Media Banking Accounting 147

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 4, 2025

(alphainacademia.substack.com) Some popular economics books to avoid including "Power and Progress," by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson. morningstar.com) Research The 2025 Global Investment Yearbook is here. noahpinion.blog) Asset growth High investment has historically led to disappointing future returns.

Math 147

Math Assets Economics Portfolio 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17, 2025. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economics 147

Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

“More momentum in planning, while not as strong as data centers, was seen across most segments and indicates confidence in 2025 market conditions. The DMI is up 43% from June 2019 levels, signaling strong construction spending in 2025.” This index suggests a slowdown in 2024 and early 2025, but perhaps a pickup in mid-2025.

Healthcare 278

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 278

Dear Mr. Market

APRIL 2, 2025

Read more : March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025 Large Cap Region: The Heavyweights Clash This years large-cap region includes some of the markets biggest names. Eli Lilly , on the other hand, boasts a robust pipeline and solid earnings, making it a relatively safer and more predictable investment for the remainder of 2025.

Investing 59

Investing Investments Valuation Advertising 59

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year , followed by a moderately paced recovery.

Economics 305

Economics Banking Communication Economy 305

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 9, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel.

Economics 147

Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is slightly above expectations, and inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up a little later this year). emphasis added Projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 312

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 312

Validea

JANUARY 6, 2025

By maintaining and growing shareholder payments across various economic conditions, they’ve proven their capacity to generate sustainable profits and manage cash flow effectively. These companies’ ability to consistently raise dividends speaks volumes about their financial resilience.

Healthcare 52

Healthcare Manufacturing Economics Management 52

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 10, 2024

This index suggests a slowdown in 2024 and early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".

Healthcare 300

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 300