Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Overall expectations for economic activity over the coming months were slightly optimistic. This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis based on information collected on or before February 24, 2025. emphasis added

Economics 191

Economics Manufacturing Food Transportation 191

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2025

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. -- Monday, March 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.

Sales 159

Sales Economics Manufacturing Government 159

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 1, 2025

March 2025 The S&P 500 returned -5.63% in March 2025. on.spdji.com) How major asset classes performed in March 2025. axios.com) Money management 230 new ETFs have been launched in 2025, to-date. capitalspectator.com) The asset asset quilt updated for Q1 performance. morningstar.com) Is the Yale Model dead?

Economics 147

Economics Assets Manufacturing Government 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Contacts expected prices to continue to rise in 2025, with some noting the potential for higher tariffs to contribute to price increases. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Energy activity was mixed.

Economics 159

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 159

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). from 510 thousand SAAR in January 2025.

Sales 308

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 308

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, February 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, February 11th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.

Retail 159

Retail Sales Financial Services Food 159

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2025.

Clients 268

Clients Investing Investments Numbers 268

Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2025 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8

Food 253

Food Economics 253

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 Job Streak Through March 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 51 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Numbers 177

Numbers Economics 177

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. Mar 6th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics 177

Economics Management Investing Investments 177

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. June 2024 1.9 June 2024 3.9

Banking 179

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 179

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 18, 2025

Martin Luther King Jr. -- Tuesday, January 21st -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Wednesday, January 22nd -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. . -- Monday, January 20th -- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr.

Sales 159

Sales Manufacturing Economics Marketing 159

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

home price growth in January 2025 was largely flat at 3.3% increase from January 2025 to January 2026, there are stark differences between regions. Despite this, national single-family home prices are forecast to reach a new peak in March 2025. From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Largely Flat in January U.S.

Economics 159

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 159

Calculated Risk

APRIL 6, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 Recession Watch Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 200 and DOW futures are down 1,200 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $61.99 per barrel and Brent at $65.58

146

146

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2025

It made me realize that, despite my extensive research into the psychology underlying behavioral economics, I suffered from the exact same cognitive errors as everyone else. Coming March 18, 2025 see more at HowNOTtoInvestbook.com The post My Bias Blind Spot Bubble appeared first on The Big Picture. But it was.

Economics 308

Economics Assets Clients Investing 308

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 146

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 146

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2024

This is likely driving owners and developers to remain optimistic about 2025 market conditions and pushing more projects into the planning queue.” This index suggests a slowdown in 2024 and early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare 330

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 330

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 YoY in January.

Numbers 177

Numbers Economics 177

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2025

At 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, N.Y.

Economics 146

Economics 146

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added

Economics 347

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 347

Calculated Risk

MARCH 9, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025 Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel.

Economics 146

Economics Marketing Marketing 146

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2025. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The Philadelphia Feds U.S.

Manufacturing 159

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 159

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28, 2025. Treasury yields continue to be volatile as economic uncertainty dominates markets. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6

Government 146

Government Economics Sales Marketing 146

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 31, 2025

[Jan 31st estimate] emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.9 The initial estimate of last quarter's real GDP growth rate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on January 30 was 2.3

Economics 146

Economics Sales 146

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 12, 2025 Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are unchanged and DOW futures are up 68 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $76.57 per barrel and Brent at $79.76 per barrel.

Economics 146

Economics Marketing Marketing 146

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 23, 2024

Markets Higher for longer is the theme going into 2025. fa-mag.com) Economy Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'What will happen with house prices in 2025?' calculatedriskblog.com) Ten risks for 2025 including the introduction of tariffs. apolloacademy.com) There's large cap growth stocks in the U.S.,

Advertising 147

Advertising Media Banking Economy 147

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 12, 2024

Falling interest rates and the disappearance of a valuation gap with private real estate should also add tailwinds for publicly listed real estate.

Economics 219

Economics Valuation 219

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 2829, 2025. Participants noted that policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. emphasis added

Economy 146

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 146

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17, 2025. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economics 146

Economics Marketing Marketing 146

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

“More momentum in planning, while not as strong as data centers, was seen across most segments and indicates confidence in 2025 market conditions. The DMI is up 43% from June 2019 levels, signaling strong construction spending in 2025.” This index suggests a slowdown in 2024 and early 2025, but perhaps a pickup in mid-2025.

Healthcare 275

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 275

Dear Mr. Market

APRIL 2, 2025

Read more : March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025 Large Cap Region: The Heavyweights Clash This years large-cap region includes some of the markets biggest names. Eli Lilly , on the other hand, boasts a robust pipeline and solid earnings, making it a relatively safer and more predictable investment for the remainder of 2025.

Investing 62

Investing Investments Valuation Advertising 62

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year , followed by a moderately paced recovery.

Economics 303

Economics Banking Communication Economy 303

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 9, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025 Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel.

Economics 146

Economics Marketing Marketing 146

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94

Numbers 146

Numbers Economics 146

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is slightly above expectations, and inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up a little later this year). emphasis added Projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 311

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 311

Validea

APRIL 3, 2025

By maintaining and increasing shareholder payments through different economic environments, these businesses have shown their ability to generate reliable profits and manage cash flow effectively. Currently, fewer than 70 companies meet these criteria, representing various sectors across the economy. CVX CHEVRON CORP $166.47 $293,087 17.2

Economics 52

Economics Economy Sales Investing 52