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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"

Calculated Risk

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. The nonfinancial services sector grew slightly overall, with Districts highlighting growth in leisure and hospitality and transportation, notably air travel. Vehicle sales grew modestly.

Economics 162
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Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025

Calculated Risk

Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, February 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, February 11th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2%

Retail 162
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Market Commentary: Seasonal Tailwinds Ahead, but First an Election

Carson Wealth

range (or even lower) in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. This is counterintuitive, since the Fed went big with a 0.50%-point cut at their September meeting and projected more cuts into 2024 and 2025. If economic growth is expected to be strong, there’s presumably less reason for the Fed to cut rates by a lot.

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Market Commentary: Sentiment Remains Extreme as Fed Warns of Risks

Carson Wealth

As the chart below shows, the S&P 500s advance/decline line has held up well above the early 2025 lows, whereas price for the S&P 500 has broken beneath those levels, suggesting there is potential strength under the surface. We wrote in our 2025 Outlook that elevated interest rates are a risk.

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Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Gets the “Good News Is Bad News” Treatment

Carson Wealth

Current Market Volatility Normal for a Bull Market The S&P 500 is off to a bit of a rocky start in 2025, an extension of weakness in December 2024. Cue expectations for rate cuts in 2025, which moved significantly after the payroll report was released. The 2025 policy rate is expected to be about 4.1% (currently at 4.4%).

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Market Commentary: Good Riddance February, Hello March

Carson Wealth

In other words, after back-to-back 20% gains the past two years, maybe a well-deserved break to kick off 2025 is perfectly normal. Given our overall still positive economic backdrop, to see this much worry in the air is actually rather bullish and why we dont expect the recent weakness to spiral out of control.

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NAIFA Advocates for the Economic Security of Women

NAIFA Advisor Today

The series of events was created as part of NAIFA’s participation in Women’s History Month and to deliver on several aspects of its Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion initiative that is part of its 2025 Strategic Plan. Capitol that was supported in attendance by board members from NAIFA’s advocacy partner, Women in Financial Services (WIFS).