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Ten Economic Questions for 2025

Calculated Risk

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Below are my ten questions for 2025 (I've been doing this online every year for 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. Q4-over-Q4 in 2025. range in Q4 2025.

Economics 290
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Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. range in Q4 2025. What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025? in November, up from 3.7%

Economics 272
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Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025? Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. New home sales were up 2.1%

Sales 147
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Question #7 for 2025: How much will wages increase in 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will wages increase in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

Economics 147
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Housing Starts and Recessions

Calculated Risk

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I

Sales 309
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AIA: Architecture Billings "End the year on a weak note"

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 270
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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345