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Ten Economic Questions for 2025

Calculated Risk

Below are my ten questions for 2025 (I've been doing this online every year for 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. There is significant uncertainty as to fiscal and regulatory policy in 2025. Q4-over-Q4 in 2025.

Economics 290
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Housing Starts and Recessions

Calculated Risk

Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Sales 309
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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. In “ How Not To Invest ” (coming March 18!)

Banking 345
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Thursday links: repackaged risks

Abnormal Returns

statsignificant.com) Economy Recessions have some permanent effects. calculatedriskblog.com) Policy volatility can't be great for the economy. abnormalreturns.com) The 2025 UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook is out! (hollywoodreporter.com) How long should you watch a show before giving up? Well, you should.

Economy 147
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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025

Dear Mr. Market

Market: This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opprtunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. Who will be this years champion? Lets break it down ( click here to see the full bracket).

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Friday links: unimportant differences

Abnormal Returns

decrypt.co) Finance What David Einhorn thinks about the state of active investing. sherwood.news) RIP Venu Sports: 2024-2025. russell-clark.com) Economy The December NFP reported showed strong growth and a 4.1% economy continues to slow. (nytimes.com) Did you know Bhutan has a strategic allocation to cryptocurrencies?

Economy 162
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Tuesday links: ignoring the noise

Abnormal Returns

sherwood.news) Annual outlooks It's always going to be a 'stockpicker's market' in strategist investment outlooks. behaviouralinvestment.com) Financial writing Nick's favorite investment writing from 2024 including 'No Regrets' by Jonathan Clements. theatlantic.com) Economy Outside of shelter, inflation is still pretty quiescent.

Retail 147