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Bracketology (2025 Edition) As my friend Mark Newfield likes to say , the Forecasters Hall of Fame has zero members. Duke math professor Jonathan Mattingly claimed the average college basketball fan has a far better chance of achieving bracket perfection than one in 9.2 Thanks for reading. And he’s right, of course. quintillion.
So as stock investors here in 2025, were just like rental house investors finding that house prices have more than doubled while rents are only up by a bit. Its just basic math. Does it mean our entire economy is expected to grow much more quickly? What if the Earnings are Rising? What Does Warren Buffett Say?
And he’s really moving the needle in terms of having people take control of their own financial life in a way that benefits not just them but the entire economy and all of society. They’re an underground economy because they don’t trust the mainstream economy. These are not dumb people. RITHOLTZ: Right.
I mean, if you take out the government spending, you probably are on a recession in a private economy. And that’s your focus on government, both fiscal and monetary support for the economy. You’re looking at all these different aspects of the market, of the economy, of, of various government policies.
You’re there almost a decade, Lisa Shalett : So, and, and from 2012 to 2025, that’s a huge run. 00:31:40 [Speaker Changed] So there’s the emotions and then there’s the math, right? We have a very robust economy. . ’cause we have the ability to offer these services to all our clients.
ft.com) Economy Heavy truck sales fell in February 2025. econbrowser.com) Economic growth was set to slow in 2025, even before DOGE-related uncertainty. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Research links: more than math. abnormalreturns.com) The 2025 UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook is out!
theatlantic.com) Economy Interest rates can fall for good (and bad) reasons. downtownjoshbrown.com) The many ways tariffs could impact the economy. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: more than math. abnormalreturns.com) The 2025 UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook is out!
It’ll reduce new company formation, it’ll make us borrowing costs skyrocket, it’ll devalue the US dollar, it’s gonna cause rampant inflation and it will act as a drag on the overall economy. Wasn’t the Excel spreadsheet error, which changed their math. And their economy seems to be doing just fine.
The interlinkages between women, our education policy, labor force, productivity, and again, ultimately the growth of the economy. But there’s such a difference between how they operate the economy and, and especially the financial sector. What do we do about that that costs the US United States GDP growth in the summer months.
And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. 00:16:33 [Speaker Changed] So I’m, I’m hinting at a question that’s gonna come a little later, but my general sense is, you know, developed mature economies have fairly efficient markets, very hard to generate alpha because markets are so efficient.
RITHOLTZ: So 5% funds rate, what does that do to the economy? I think that interest rates — and by the way, there’s a whole new chapter on interest rates and stock prices, and the downward trend of interest rates over the last 2025 years, something I talk about a lot. SIEGEL: Yeah. RITHOLTZ: So we’ll be at 5%.
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