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Long-term policy rate expectations have climbed to 4.4% (based on the expected 2029 policy rate). As you can see, policy rate expectations have been creeping up since last summer, mostly as the labor market data has come in better than expected (along with other economic data). Compliance Case # 7521978.1._011325_C
It upped its view of economic growth and said things looked pretty good on the economic front. Investors currently expects policy rates for 2029 to be at 4.05%, which implies investors dont expect any rate cuts beyond 2025. The S&P 500 is only 3.6% Then what else did the Fed say on Wednesday? That isnt the worst news.
Economic Growth Remains Solid, As Does the Outlook While inflation data for Q1 was hot, albeit for idiosyncratic reasons, we also received the following: Strong employment data, with payroll growth accelerating from last year and layoffs low. However, some investors are missing the forest for the trees amidst this sharp shift in sentiment.
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