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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (January 11–12)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the "Social Security Fairness Act" was signed into law this week, eliminating the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) provisions, which previously reduced the Social Security benefits of individuals who worked in both "covered" (jobs for which they paid into the Social Security system) and "non-covered" (those in which they didn't,

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Tuesday links: the best definition of progress

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Vanguard investors are letting their equity allocations drift higher. (jeffreyptak.substack.com) It's counterintuitive, but frictions can make for better investors. (behaviouralinvestment.com) The markets are a mirror. (safalniveshak.com) Companies Corporate spinoffs are getting bigger and more complex. (axios.com) Databricks is raising venture debt.

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At the Money: Matt Hougan on Crypto Technology

The Big Picture

SPOTIFY EMBED St. Vincent – Digital Witness [link] Digital witnesses, what’s the point of even sleeping? If I can’t show it, if you can’t see me What’s the point of doing anything? This is no time for confessing At The Money: with Matt Hougan on Crypto Technology (January 8, 2025) Are you crypto-curious? Are you interested in owning some bitcoin, Ethereum, or other crypto-coins?

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Bank of America Ramps Up New Wealth Division with Citi, UBS Alums

Wealth Management

BofA announced it hired Ed Riley and Jessica Mullin several days after unveiling its new advisory group for ultra-high-net-worth clients based out of its Merrill Wealth division.

Banking 142
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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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Comments on December Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Earlier: December Employment Report: 256 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demograp

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site When the world is in flux, experience could actually be a detriment. (abnormalreturns.com) You can now follow us on Bluesky. (bsky.app) Are you signed up for daily e-mail newsletter? Well, you should. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Why the CAPE ratio should be higher today than it was in the past. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) The equity risk premium is negative.

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MiB: Brian Hurst, ClearAlpha

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Brian Hurst , the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of ClearAlpha. Prior to founding ClearAlpha, Brian spent 21 years at AQR Capital Management as a portfolio manager, researcher, head of trading, and the firm’s first non-founding Partner. He was also Cliff Asness’ first hire at GSAM. Hurst was instrumental in designing and implementing AQR’s trading platform.

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7 Steps to Define and Align Your Money Values for Success

Clever Girl Finance

If someone asked what your money values were, would you know how to answer? Or would you find yourself searching for a response and coming up blank? Our values are a key part of who we are, yet we often don’t take the time to intentionally think about, define, and understand themespecially when it comes to money. For anyone looking to transform their relationship with finances, figuring out your money principles is a great first step.

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FOMC Minutes: "The process [of reaching inflation target] could take longer than previously anticipated"

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 1718, 2024. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated.

Economics 109
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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 155: How Do You Know You Are Adding Value Versus Just Trying To Justify Your Fees?

Nerd's Eye View

While financial advisors offer valuable services for their clients, it can sometimes be challenging to gauge how much clients actually value those services. On one hand, a client's willingness to pay an ongoing fee for financial advice suggests that they find the advisor's services worthwhile. On the other hand, the term "financial advice" often refers to much more than asset allocation and wealth management.

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Personal finance links: free of concern

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Ryan Morrissey talks with Larry Swedroe author of "Enrich Your Future: Keys to Successful Investing." (youtube.com) Peter Lazaroff on the need for professional help in retirement planning. (peterlazaroff.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks with Dana Miranda author of "You Don't Need a Budget." (podcast.moneywithkatie.com) The Purpose Code Why you should read "The Purpose Code: How to Unlock Meaning, Maximize Happiness, and Leave a Lasting Legacy" by Jordan Grumet.

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Top 3 Predictions for 2025 From a Venture Capitalist

Wealth Management

Hack VC's Peter Hans prognosticates about the year to come in.

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Mega Cap World Domination

A Wealth of Common Sense

Most investors would like the world of finance to exist in black or white. Just tell me when to buy or sell, get bullish or bearish, buy this stock or avoid that one, go all in or get out of the market. Markets are hard because most things exist in shades of gray. It’s difficult to be certain about anything because no one knows what the future holds and the past can be unreliable when used incorrectly.

Marketing 117
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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 3, 2025. This weeks results include an adjustment for the New Years holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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Social Security Fairness Act: Planning Considerations For The Repeal Of The Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) And Government Pension Offset (GPO)

Nerd's Eye View

For most people, Social Security benefits are calculated using a single formula, which takes into account the individual's history of earning income on which they paid Social Security tax. But historically, a subset of workers that spent at least part of their careers in positions that did not pay Social Security tax – including many state and local government workers like teachers and police officers – have had their Social Security benefits reduced, sometimes down to $0.

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Research links: an impossible burden

Abnormal Returns

C-suite Narcissistic CEOs take unnecessary risks. (on.ft.com) Why some female CEOs get downgraded by investors. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) The bigger a firm gets, the more it spends on lobbying. (papers.ssrn.com) Research How much of the S&P 500's returns in 2024 came from idiosyncratic factors? (mailchi.mp) Don't forget that active ETFs can be sold short.

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How AI, Remote Work Are Boosting Productivity

Wealth Management

AI plus remote work are boosting employee productivity, resulting in massive changes affecting benefits and 401(k) plans.

Planning 111
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Advisor Perspectives

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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Goldman on Employment Report and FOMC

Calculated Risk

A few excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note: Nonfarm payrolls rose 256k in December, well above consensus expectations. The household survey was also strong. The unemployment rate fell 0.15pp to 4.09%, reflecting a 478k gain in household employment and an unchanged labor force participation rate, at 62.5%. Following this mornings data, we now expect the FOMC to deliver two 25bp cuts this year (vs. three previously) at its June and December meetings, followed by another cut in June 2026, to

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#FASuccess Ep 420: Making Financial Planning More Repeatable Without Losing The Customization Where Clients Prioritize What Matters Most, With Michelle Underwood Gass

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 420th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Michelle Underwood Gass. Michelle is the Founding Principal of Paradigm Advisors, an RIA based in Dallas, Texas, that oversees approximately $110 million in assets under management for 80 client households. What's unique about Michelle, though, is the way she created a structured meeting process to navigate around the places where new clients often get stuck, standardized thei

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Monday links: hard choices

Abnormal Returns

Markets Luke Kawa, "The idea that the stock market is always and everywhere rooting for lower interest rates, even if it requires outright weakness in the US job market to get them, is not consistently borne out by the data, to say the least." (sherwood.news) Bond yields are rising around the globe, not just the U.S. (wsj.com) Fund management Don't confuse 'yield' for a return of capital.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Raymond James Sues Former Intern, Alleging Harassment Campaign Against Reps

Wealth Management

According to a lawsuit filed in Ohio federal court, Paul Saba created fictitious email addresses to falsely accuse two Raymond James employees of assault, insider trading and supporting a networking group for neo-Nazis.

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Google’s Most Serious Rival Isn’t Microsoft. It’s a Startup

Advisor Perspectives

The AI boom of the past two years has largely been a two-horse race. Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp.-funded OpenAI have duked it out for customers, while Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. have nibbled at the margins for market share.

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7 Ways to Buy a New Home Before Selling Your Current House

Darrow Wealth Management

Can I buy another house before I sell mine? Updated for 2025. Because who wants to move twice? To buy a new house while selling yours (or selling and buying a home at the same time), you need cash and potentially the ability to carry two mortgages. Although challenging, here are seven options for buyers looking to buy a new home before selling the old house.

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Rebuilding The Kitces Members Section And The State Of The (Nerd’s Eye View) Blog

Nerd's Eye View

With another strong year in the markets, most advisory firms are near or at record highs for their revenue, their numbers of clients, and the headcounts of their teams. Which is surprising to some, given that a decade ago, the emergence of so-called "robo-advisors" was supposed to displace human financial advisors and compress advisory fees. In reality, though, the robos struggled to gain traction, and the human financial advice business just continues to grow.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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Adviser links: success rates

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz talks with Dr. Jordan Grumet author of "The Purpose Code: How to Unlock Meaning, Maximize Happiness, and Leave a Lasting Legacy." (morningstar.com) Michael Kitces talks sustainability with Peter Krull, the Director of Sustainable Investing of Earth Equity Advisors. (kitces.com) Custodians Charles Schwab ($SCHW) has cut its cash sweep rate to 0.05%.

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The First 100 Days of the New Congress

Wealth Management

Tax reform is on deck for the new Congress.

Taxes 110
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TSMC Sales Beat Estimates in Boost for AI’s Outlook in 2025

Advisor Perspectives

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s quarterly sales topped estimates, reinforcing investor hopes that the torrid pace of AI hardware spending will extend into 2025.

Sales 96