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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

A regular theme around these parts is “ Nobody Knows Anything. ” Specifically, nobody knows what will happen in the future. This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. We do not know which geopolitical hot spot will erupt in turmoil; we have no idea where or when the next natural disaster will hit.

Banking 344
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Personal finance links: older houses

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Michael Batnick about lessons learned from the stock market in 2024. (peterlazaroff.com) Khe Hy talks with Dr. Jordan Grumet about finding your life purpose. (youtube.com) Taxes Trading crypto? Pay your taxes. (axios.com) Consider doing Roth IRA conversions for your heirs. (financialducksinarow.com) Returns Chasing higher bank interest rates is losing its appeal.

Taxes 162
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Using A 1035 Exchange To Turn An Unneeded Life Insurance Policy Into An Annuity

Nerd's Eye View

Occasionally, an owner of a permanent life insurance policy may decide that they no longer need their policy – either because the death benefit is no longer necessary or because they simply want to access the policy's underlying cash value for their living expenses in retirement. Unlike term life insurance, permanent life insurance doesn't simply lapse when the owner stops paying premiums.

Insurance 187
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2024: It Was (Another) Good Year in the Stock Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

In 2022, it was a bad year for the markets. At the time I wrote about how it was maybe one of the worst years ever when you consider bonds had a bear market at the same time as stocks. Last year I wrote about how 2023 was agood year which was nice because sometimes bad years are followed by bad years. I followed that up writing about how good years in the markets tend to cluster: Well, the S&P 500 was up 25% in 202.

Marketing 121
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Profit in the Details: Rethinking Spend for Monumental Impact

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Economics 108

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Tuesday links: social media shenanigans

Abnormal Returns

Markets The U.S. stock market is set for its best two-year performance since 1997-98. (wsj.com) After a good start, energy sector performance has faded. (axios.com) Intel ($INTC) had its worst year as a public company. (cnbc.com) Gold had its best year since 2010. (msn.com) Finance Can Treasury primary dealers handle the ongoing funding calendar? (bloomberg.com) Traditional actively managed equity mutual funds saw record outflows in 2024.

Media 173
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (January 4–5)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with a recent survey indicating that a majority of advisors are viewing new client acquisition as their primary challenge in the current competitive environment for financial advice (followed by compliance and technology management) and suggests that, in addition to reviewing their marketing tactics to see if they are reaching their ideal target prospects, firms might consider evaluating the

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Navigating the Aircraft Leasing Landscape in 2025

Wealth Management

This growing alternative asset class focuses on purchasing and leasing aviation assets and can provide diversified and uncorrelated returns.

Assets 104
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Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Economics 111
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry Organic coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: AI Wants More Data. More Chips. More Real Estate. More Power. More Water. More Everything : Businesses, investors and society brace for a demand shock from artificial intelligence. ( Bloomberg ) Its the Most Indispensable Machine in the Worldand It Depends on This Woman : I got a rare look at the one tool responsible for all the

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Friday links: upping the ante

Abnormal Returns

Markets Good years in the stock market tend to cluster. (awealthofcommonsense.com) How international stock markets performed in 2024. (novelinvestor.com) Just because the stock market is expensive, doesn't mean you should sell everything. (fa-mag.com) Crypto Memecoins are a way to learn about trading and markets. (howardlindzon.com) Microstrategy ($MSTR) is upping the ante on board pay.

Food 162
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The Best Of Weekend Reading 2024: Top 24 Articles You Might Have Missed

Nerd's Eye View

Each week in Weekend Reading For Financial Planners, we seek to bring you synopses and commentaries on 12 articles covering news for financial advisors including topics covering technical planning, practice management, advisor marketing, career development, and more. And as 2024 draws to a close, we wanted to highlight 24 of the most popular and insightful articles that were featured throughout the year (that you might have missed!).

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What the Housing Industry Needs in 2025

Advisor Perspectives

It’s now half a decade since anything in the US housing market could be considered normal. The pandemic boom was followed by a transaction bust, induced by the central bank, that did little to lower sky-high prices.

Banking 98
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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42% More Likely to Succeed? Write Down Your 10 Financial Goals for 2025!

Dear Mr. Market

Dear Mr. Market: Ah, the start of a new yearthe smell of fresh planners, gym memberships, and resolutions destined to be abandoned by February. But not this year. Not for you. Why? Because when it comes to financial planning, you’re ready to write it downand studies show that writing down your goals makes you 42% more likely to achieve them. So, grab that pen and let’s get to work.

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MiB: Sunaina Sinha, Global Head of Private Capital with Raymond James

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Sunaina Sinha , Global Head of Private Capital Advisory at Raymond James. Prior to joining Raymond James, Sunaina founded Cebile Capital , which was acquired by Raymond James in 2021. She was named one of the 50 Most Influential People in Private Equity for 2 years in a row by Dow Jones Private Equity News. She also earned a spot as one of the Twenty Trailblazing Women in Private Equity in 2023.

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Podcast links: the impact of intangibles

Abnormal Returns

Business Matt Reustle talks with Jonathan Eng a Portfolio Manager at Causeway Capital Management about luxury goods maker Kering. (joincolossus.com) Eric Golden talks global logistics with Eric Johnson who is the Senior Technology Editor at the Journal of Commerce. (joincolossus.com) Jon Youshaei talks with Andrew Rea about the growth of the Babish Culinary Universe.

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#FASuccess Ep 418: Developing The “Middle” Management Layer To Scale Up Team Leadership Capacity For $3B Of AUM, With Stacey McKinnon

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 418th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Stacey McKinnon. Stacey is the chief operating officer of Morton Wealth, an RIA based in Calabasas, California, that oversees approximately $3 billion in assets under management for 1,300 client households. What's unique about Stacey, though, is how she has implemented a leadership training program for Morton Wealth to ensure that the firm's middle managers (many of whom were

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of December 2024

Advisor Perspectives

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the December 2024 close.

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Sanctuary Wealth, EverNest Agree to Dismiss Lawsuit

Wealth Management

In an Indiana state court filing this week, the parties agreed to cover their costs. The suit sprang from a dispute over EverNests attempt to buy back a management interest in its firm from Sanctuary.

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Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024

Calculated Risk

Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. The key reports this week are the October Case-Shiller house price indexes, the December ISM manufacturing survey and December vehicle sales. -- Monday, December 30th -- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.

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Investigating Simple Formulaic Investing

Alpha Architect

Simple, easy-to-implement, systematic formula-based investing can still generate market outperformance, providing investors with efficient exposure to well-documented factor premiums. Investigating Simple Formulaic Investing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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When Your Friends Are Richer Than You

A Wealth of Common Sense

Our media team at The Compound does an excellent job of marrying quality production value with useful analytics. They recently shared with us the Spotify Wrapped data on Animal Spirits for 2024. Our most popular episode this year was titled When Your Friends Are Richer Than You. It’s always hard to tell the exact reason why people tuned in for something like this, but the episode title seems to have struck a chord.

Media 74
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Jimmy Carter, RIP

Advisor Perspectives

Jimmy Carter, the thirty-ninth president of the United States passed away this weekend, at age 100, the first former president to ever reach that milestone.

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Growth Themes Drove Performance and Flows in a Record Year for U.S. ETFs

Wealth Management

Active ETFs continued to take a growing share of U.S. ETF inflows, rising to 24.6% in 2024 from 14.6% in 2022.

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October

Calculated Risk

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

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The Growth Architect: How Financial Leaders are Unlocking Potential

Speaker: Ashley Harlan, MBA

What if your role as a fractional CFO went beyond operational support to actively shaping the future of your clients’ businesses? 💼 ✨ In this session, discover how fractional finance professionals can position themselves as architects of growth, guiding their clients toward sustainable success and preparing them for full-time financial leadership.

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What the Index Effect’s Disappearance means for Market Efficiency

Alpha Architect

One critical, yet often overlooked, choice is how stocks are weighted in the objective function during training, with equally weighted (EW) approaches being the norm. This paper investigates how such choices impact cross-sectional return predictability and the performance of trading strategies derived from these predictions, focusing on the interplay between objective function design and model outcomes.

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My 3 Polarities for 2025

Steve Sanduski

For the 11th time, I begin the New Year with a word exercise thats designed to remind, motivate, and guide my behavior on my road to making the New Year my best year yet. Historically, Ive done the My 3 Words exercise, which are simply 3 words that set my theme for the year. My 3 words are printed at the top of my Daily Outcomes sheet (my prioritized to-do list) so I see them multiple times a day.

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Unemployment Claims Drop to 8-Month Low to End 2024

Advisor Perspectives

During the last week of 2024 (ending December 28th), initial jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since April. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 211,000. This represents a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure and is better than the 222,000 economists were expecting.

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