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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

A regular theme around these parts is “ Nobody Knows Anything. ” Specifically, nobody knows what will happen in the future. This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. We do not know which geopolitical hot spot will erupt in turmoil; we have no idea where or when the next natural disaster will hit.

Banking 213
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Personal finance links: older houses

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Michael Batnick about lessons learned from the stock market in 2024. (peterlazaroff.com) Khe Hy talks with Dr. Jordan Grumet about finding your life purpose. (youtube.com) Taxes Trading crypto? Pay your taxes. (axios.com) Consider doing Roth IRA conversions for your heirs. (financialducksinarow.com) Returns Chasing higher bank interest rates is losing its appeal.

Taxes 162
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Kitces & Carl Ep 154: The Limits Where Technology Can’t Scale Financial Planning Advice

Nerd's Eye View

Just a few decades ago, giving financial advice was largely a manual process – printing lengthy financial plans, processing physical checks, and managing paper files. Then, technology evolved, introducing tools like Excel, the internet, and sophisticated financial planning and CRM software that transformed how advisors deliver financial advice.

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2025 Outlook Q&A: Active Management Key to Higher CRE Returns

Wealth Management

Richard Hill, the head of Cohen & Steers real estate strategy, talks about how financial advisors should tackle commercial real estate investment next year.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Economics 111

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (December 28–29)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that according to a recent study by DeVoe & Company, only 42% of RIAs surveyed have written succession plans and either have begun to implement them or have already done so. The report suggests this might be due in part to increased RIA valuations and the assumption of some firm founders that next-generation employees won't be financially able to buy out the firm from them,

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Saturday links: worrying about predators

Abnormal Returns

Autos Most big auto mergers don't work out. (msn.com) Is there any reason to drive faster than 100 mph? (fastcompany.com) We should move faster toward expanding autonomous vehicles. (hunterwalk.com) Should you give your new teen driver a new car or a hand-me-down? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Energy The race is on to build viable sodium-ion batteries.

Media 147
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2025 Outlook Q&A: Industry Regulation to Focus on Digital Assets

Wealth Management

Carlo di Florio, president of the industry compliance consulting firm ACA Group, said SEC Chair Nominee Paul Atkins approach to digital assets would be one of the most important legacies hell leave should he be confirmed.

Assets 109
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Question #3 for 2025: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Economics 100
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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OpenAI Mulls Plan for a More Conventional For-Profit Business

Advisor Perspectives

OpenAI, founded a decade ago as a research organization, is considering a change to the AI company’s structure that would create a more conventional money-making corporation alongside a nonprofit arm.

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The Best Of Weekend Reading 2024: Top 24 Articles You Might Have Missed

Nerd's Eye View

Each week in Weekend Reading For Financial Planners, we seek to bring you synopses and commentaries on 12 articles covering news for financial advisors including topics covering technical planning, practice management, advisor marketing, career development, and more. And as 2024 draws to a close, we wanted to highlight 24 of the most popular and insightful articles that were featured throughout the year (that you might have missed!).

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Tuesday links: social media shenanigans

Abnormal Returns

Markets The U.S. stock market is set for its best two-year performance since 1997-98. (wsj.com) After a good start, energy sector performance has faded. (axios.com) Intel ($INTC) had its worst year as a public company. (cnbc.com) Gold had its best year since 2010. (msn.com) Finance Can Treasury primary dealers handle the ongoing funding calendar? (bloomberg.com) Traditional actively managed equity mutual funds saw record outflows in 2024.

Media 173
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2024 Year in Review: Alts for All

Wealth Management

Alternative investments for the masses is coming. It's not if, but when and how.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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42% More Likely to Succeed? Write Down Your 10 Financial Goals for 2025!

Dear Mr. Market

Dear Mr. Market: Ah, the start of a new yearthe smell of fresh planners, gym memberships, and resolutions destined to be abandoned by February. But not this year. Not for you. Why? Because when it comes to financial planning, you’re ready to write it downand studies show that writing down your goals makes you 42% more likely to achieve them. So, grab that pen and let’s get to work.

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What the Housing Industry Needs in 2025

Advisor Perspectives

It’s now half a decade since anything in the US housing market could be considered normal. The pandemic boom was followed by a transaction bust, induced by the central bank, that did little to lower sky-high prices.

Banking 98
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#FASuccess Ep 418: Developing The “Middle” Management Layer To Scale Up Team Leadership Capacity For $3B Of AUM, With Stacey McKinnon

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 418th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Stacey McKinnon. Stacey is the chief operating officer of Morton Wealth, an RIA based in Calabasas, California, that oversees approximately $3 billion in assets under management for 1,300 client households. What's unique about Stacey, though, is how she has implemented a leadership training program for Morton Wealth to ensure that the firm's middle managers (many of whom were

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Friday links: the sin of blame

Abnormal Returns

Markets We should be grateful for 2024's returns, especially if you avoided the negativity. (allstarcharts.com) No one else is to blame for your investing failures. (microcapclub.com) Companies OpenAI is officially transitioning to a for-profit company. (techcrunch.com) How Reddit ($RDDT) became a huge winner in 2024. (slate.com) Video game companies are going broke building new games with life-like graphics.

Media 147
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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2024 Year in Review: Another New Fiduciary Rule

Wealth Management

The Department of Labor finalized its latest attempt at a fiduciary rule this year, which was quickly halted by the courts.

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Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024

Calculated Risk

Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. The key reports this week are the October Case-Shiller house price indexes, the December ISM manufacturing survey and December vehicle sales. -- Monday, December 30th -- 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.

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Jimmy Carter, RIP

Advisor Perspectives

Jimmy Carter, the thirty-ninth president of the United States passed away this weekend, at age 100, the first former president to ever reach that milestone.

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Using A 1035 Exchange To Turn An Unneeded Life Insurance Policy Into An Annuity

Nerd's Eye View

Occasionally, an owner of a permanent life insurance policy may decide that they no longer need their policy – either because the death benefit is no longer necessary or because they simply want to access the policy's underlying cash value for their living expenses in retirement. Unlike term life insurance, permanent life insurance doesn't simply lapse when the owner stops paying premiums.

Insurance 131
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Podcast links: surprising trends

Abnormal Returns

Spotify How Spotify ($SPOT) went to war against it own artists by uploading proprietary tracks. (honest-broker.com) Spotify ($SPOT) insiders are selling a lot of stock. (ft.com) Listening Does listening to an audiobook count as 'reading'? (wsj.com) The 20 best podcast series of 2024 including 'Road to Rickwood.' (theatlantic.com) Seven under-the-radar sports podcasts to check out.

Nonprofit 147
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2024 Year in Review: Celebrity Estate Planning Lessons

Wealth Management

There's a lot that can be learned from the estate mishaps of the rich and famous. 2024 was no different.

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Do sell-side analysts say “buy” while whispering “sell”?

Alpha Architect

Managers are more likely to vote for analysts who exhibit greater say-buy/whisper-sell behavior toward these man agers. This suggests that analysts reduce the accuracy of their public recommendations, thereby maintaining the value of their private advice to funds. Do sell-side analysts say buy while whispering sell? was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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MiB: Toto Wolff, Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team

The Big Picture

(Rebroadcast) This week, we speak with Toto Wolff , Team Principal & CEO of the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team. Prior to joining Mercedes, Toto spent time in the investment world, founding his own company “Marchfifteen” in 1998 and Marchsixteen in 2004. In 2009, Toto combined his passion for racing and business by investing in the Williams F1 Team.

Investing 147
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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When Your Friends Are Richer Than You

A Wealth of Common Sense

Our media team at The Compound does an excellent job of marrying quality production value with useful analytics. They recently shared with us the Spotify Wrapped data on Animal Spirits for 2024. Our most popular episode this year was titled When Your Friends Are Richer Than You. It’s always hard to tell the exact reason why people tuned in for something like this, but the episode title seems to have struck a chord.

Media 74
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10 Predictions for 2025

Advisor Perspectives

Investors continue to enjoy the bull market but remain somewhat nervous about valuation. Policy uncertainty is higher than usual, in part because there are so many policy changes at the same time.

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2024 Year in Review: AI in Wealth Management Accelerates

Wealth Management

Artificial intelligence is no passing fad. It's only going to become part of an advisor's business more and more.