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Longer term rates, such as a five or 10-year Treasury, also move in response to a changing federal funds rate, but these yields are driven more by what market participants expect the average yield to be over this period, which is also influenced by inflation and economic growth expectations. Compare that to the stated yield of 5.6%
The topics covered are personal finance math, retirement problems, introduction to mutual funds, the concept of fund & NAV, equity schemes, debt funds, investing in bonds, index funds, rolling returns, Exchange-traded funds(ETF) and basics of macroeconomics. You can enroll in the course here.
Math Matters. I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Source: Calafia Beach Pundit. This notion rings especially true when it comes to finance and investing. interest rates.
One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. It depends on your assetallocation.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. And actually Ben Inker is the head of our assetallocation group. We, we call assetallocation at GMO. Finance was the natural fit for GMO.
And so, coming out of school, I studied Economics and Spanish Literature, and I applied to a — a program that actually targeted Liberal Arts majors. I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. It was at Bank One, at the time.
This math explains why we shouldn’t be surprised when the market remains “irrational” far longer than seems possible. Even worse, our economic and market models typically assume a “mild randomness” of market fluctuations. In fact, much of what happens is highly improbable. But we are.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. And I think it partly depends on the economic comfort in which you grew up. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. Things like leading economic indicators, et cetera, are all consistent with historical recessions.
So a variety of risk meetings, a variety of economic meetings. So there’s been a big push for folks to get the appropriate level of assetallocation in a highly diversified, low cost way. It’s also being part of the senior team that runs Vanguard, the business of Vanguard, right? RITHOLTZ: Right. We believe in this.
Once you have your assetallocation dialed in, your automatic contributions dialed in, all the basics, then you can move on. Have I managed my assetallocation and my investment fees? It’s much deeper than math. And they do that for 35 years tweaking numbers I go you won, you won the game. Am I paid well?
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. I know you like to discuss there are different phases of the, of the, both the market and the economic cycle.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. There’s very few, I would argue probably no consistent predictors of, of any sort of economic or market cyclicality. And I just caught the bug.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
So in this, in this context of, of a mortgage now being clear to everyone that this default risk is present, it’s real, and it’s hard to price because following the borrower’s economic profile, there, there are defaults that are related to just life events, but there’s also defaults related to a macroeconomic event.
Or should this be kept out of private assetallocators’ hands? So, it’s not one of these fuzzy math situations where you don’t really know what the value of the fund is because it’s got private companies in it that are being marked by individuals who have an ax to grind in the mark.
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