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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"

Calculated Risk

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Truck freight volumes, however, were down.

Economics 162
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Government Spending Is Out of Control! LOL

The Big Picture

As Paul Krugman recently wrote on his excellent Substack , using a chart identical to the one immediately above (Paul used FRED ): “People may imagine that government is a bigger part of the economy than it is because of all the money we spend supporting retired Americans, covering their health bills, and so on [Chart 1].

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Podcast links: the economics of weight loss

Abnormal Returns

forbes.com) Economy Danny Crichton talks with Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber authors of the new book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. (engadget.com) Do you really want to listen to AI podcast hosts?

Economics 162
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Sunday links: a satellite asset

Abnormal Returns

npr.org) Using Russian sovereign assets to rebuild Ukraine would be unprecedented. nber.org) Economy The Federal Reserve has all the data in the world, and still gets things wrong. tker.co) The economic schedule for the coming week. (barrons.com) Boeing's ($BA) downfall is a wakeup call.

Assets 287
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Sunday links: a useful asset

Abnormal Returns

wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. ritholtz.com) Rate hikes are working.

Assets 271
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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 244
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Friday links: your single most valuable asset

Abnormal Returns

politico.com) Economy There's still no sign of a recession in the data. semafor.com) This year's Nobel Prize winners in Economics did not come with universal acclaim. (ft.com) The West is coming to terms with the extent of Chinese espionage. wsj.com) How donor fatigue is affecting Ukraine's defense.

Assets 278