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Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Truck freight volumes, however, were down.
As Paul Krugman recently wrote on his excellent Substack , using a chart identical to the one immediately above (Paul used FRED ): “People may imagine that government is a bigger part of the economy than it is because of all the money we spend supporting retired Americans, covering their health bills, and so on [Chart 1].
forbes.com) Economy Danny Crichton talks with Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber authors of the new book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." podcasts.apple.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks about the economics of weight loss drugs. (engadget.com) Do you really want to listen to AI podcast hosts?
npr.org) Using Russian sovereign assets to rebuild Ukraine would be unprecedented. nber.org) Economy The Federal Reserve has all the data in the world, and still gets things wrong. tker.co) The economic schedule for the coming week. (barrons.com) Boeing's ($BA) downfall is a wakeup call.
wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. ritholtz.com) Rate hikes are working.
With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.
politico.com) Economy There's still no sign of a recession in the data. semafor.com) This year's Nobel Prize winners in Economics did not come with universal acclaim. (ft.com) The West is coming to terms with the extent of Chinese espionage. wsj.com) How donor fatigue is affecting Ukraine's defense.
economist.com) Fund management Avantis Investors is adding assets and launching new ETFs. theconversation.com) Economy The quit rate continues to slow. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Seven economics books worth checking out including "For a Dollar and a Dream: State Lotteries in Modern America" by Jonathan D.
People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.
hypercritical.co) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 2.6% newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Just how much is China's economic growth slowing? (coindesk.com) Apple AI is coming to Apple ($AAPL) GPUs. om.co) Apple TV+ just doesn't have a big enough library. variety.com) Why Apple ($AAPL) should make its batteries removable.
The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. 1) Question #1 for 2022: How much will the economy grow in 2022? "My If so, how many times?
optimisticallie.com) It's hard to find a losing asset class this year. spyglass.org) Fund management Blackrock ($BLK) now has some $450 billion alternative assets under management. etf.com) Economy Six things Presidential candidates want you to believe about the economy including 'The President controls gas prices.'
ft.com) Fund management Does your alternatives fund charge fees on gross or net assets? vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. ft.com) Economy The case for the Fed to cut rates. wsj.com) How the post-pandemic economy is messing with the Sahm Rule.
(scheplick.com) ETFs Leveraged single-stock ETF continue to attract assets and attention. ft.com) Policy Why housing (policy) matters so much for the economy. wsj.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking mid-2% growth. econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. Can anything be done about it?
allstarcharts.com) Strategy What it going to happen to all those assets in money market fund when yields eventually fall? ft.com) Economy Q4 GDP is tracking at 2%. econbrowser.com) Any economic slowdown is coming with consumers in pretty good shape. tker.co) On the divergence between consumer sentiment and the economy.
economy—Treasury securities are the world’s “safe” asset and the dollar is the world’s main reserve currency. For example, a prolonged default might increase the reluctance of investors to hold Treasury securities and perhaps dollar-denominated assets more generally. Failure to raise the U.S.
vulture.com) Economy Scott Galloway talks with Kyla Scanlon author of "In This Economy? paulpodolsky.substack.com) Stephen Dubner explores the economics of Broadway through the show 'Stereophonic.' youtube.com) Jeff Malec talks the carry trade with Rodrigo Gordillo and Adam Butler of ReSolve Asset Management.
Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. on.spdji.com) Some of the best charts of 2023.
August 2023 How major asset classes performed in August 2023. morningstar.com) Economy The August NFP showed continued growth and a 3.8% ritholtz.com) Seven economic myths including that the consumer is 'tapped out.' bloomberg.com) Dave Nadig, Barry Ritholtz and Cameron Dawson talk 2023's economic cross-currents.
(riabiz.com) Global The UK's new PM will be dealing with a stagnant economy. foreignpolicy.com) Economy A look at weekly initial jobless claims with a seasonality lens. calculatedriskblog.com) This measure still shows strong economic growth. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: asset class access.
vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023. bloomberg.com) Four megatrends heading into 2024 including a more normal economy. open.spotify.com) Brink Lindsey talks economic dynamism with Tyler Cowen.
morningstar.com) Alternative assets are not all that alternative. wired.com) Asset allocation How various asset classes performed during a recession. bonddad.blogspot.com) EconomyEconomic anxiety isn't going anywhere. Alternatives Private market access funds are all the rage.
If the S&P PMI report proves to be correct (inflation reaccelerating) that is going to be highly problematic for risk assets that have become more comfortable with a “hike to pause” narrative. This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar.
Asset allocation Asset allocation is not a science. insights.finominal.com) Economy Aging isn't great for economic growth. obliviousinvestor.com) Diversification reduces the risk of adverse outcomes. barrons.com) Strategy Everyone and everything ends up underperforming at some point.
radreads.co) When an asset has no intrinsic value, i.e. gold, you have more decisions to make. nber.org) Economy Why the odds of a June rate cut are falling. stayathomemacro.substack.com) The puzzle of economic performance under Republic and Democratic administrations. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.
craincurrency.com) Bankrupt FTX has assets to sell. abnormalreturns.com) Economy The quits rate is falling from historic highs. econbrowser.com) Global economic growth numbers don't tell us much. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Five benefits of higher rates on cash, including no drag on holding an emergency fund.
He coined the term “K-shaped recovery” to describe the pandemic’s effects on the economy. Atwater previously ran JPMorgan’s asset-backed securities business and served in executive roles at First USA, Bank One and Juniper Financial. The work from home confidence divide was both revealed and amplified by the pandemic.
How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?
Markets A look at major asset class returns in 2023. visualcapitalist.com) Strategy How to read all those market and economic forecasts. etf.com) Economy The December NFP report showed continued payroll growth and a 3.7% visualcapitalist.com) Long technology, short utilities was the trade in 2023. unemployment rate.
awealthofcommonsense.com) There are a lot of different asset allocations you can live with. axios.com) Economy Josh Brown, "The economy ought to be able to heal itself for the most part. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (wsj.com) Strategy Remember all that talk about how the 60/40 portfolio was broken?
wggtb.substack.com) Finance The Apple ($AAPL) Card savings account now has more than $10 billion in assets. economy didn't go into recession this year. theatlantic.com) Why economic perceptions have been so negative. epsilontheory.com) Economy Heavy truck sales are at a record high in the U.S. economy afloat.
2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. In fact, it felt horrible.
They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis. economy, but American society as a whole. KKR) — have grown to have an outsized impact on not just the U.S. taxpayers 180 billion dollars per decade.
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The state of the economy on Election Day, explained in 6 numbers : Rising prices have weighed heavily on the minds of voters who will soon determine the outcome of elections across the country. ( New York Times ). • Global Biodiversity: A Stable Ecosystem Yields Stable Economics : The U.N. . •
Understanding How Does Stock Market Affect The Economy: The stock market and the economy are in a lot of talk in recent days. Seeing the market indexes declined by over 30% within a month, an obvious question among people is to understand how does the stock market affects the economy. How the Stock Market Affect the Economy?
morningstar.com) Real assets can be a portfolio drag during periods of quiescent inflation. entertainmentstrategyguy.com) Global It's hard to put a positive spin on Brexit for the UK economy. reuters.com) Economy By any reasonable measure, the average American is better off economically than they were four years ago.
We must keep at it until the job is done.’ ( Wall Street Journal ) see also The “Data-Dependent” Fed and the Data Interpreting the mixed signals across the economy, with a focus on inflation, jobs, and market pricing. ( The Overshoot ). Were Those Great Returns the Result of Skill — or Just Luck? Of Dollars And Data ). •
A downturn in the market doesn’t always precede a downturn in the economy. It’s hard to completely dismiss this as a leading indicator and I’m not here to do that, but while most drawdowns of this magnitude have led to economic contractions, they haven’t always. At its low, the S&P 500 was 25% below its high. Irrelevant Investor ).
morningstar.com) Buffered ETFs are continuing to gain assets. wsj.com) Economy The March NFP report was 'uniformly positive.' calculatedrisk.substack.com) Americans are confusing the current economic situation with their hopes for the future. advisorperspectives.com) Why UK labor looks like a bargain right now.
New York Times ) • How creators became an economic juggernaut and the new American Dream : Millions have ditched traditional career paths to work as online creators and content-makers, using their computers and phones to amass followers and build businesses whose influence now rivals the biggest names in entertainment, news and politics.
Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises – like in 2020 with the pandemic – to adjust my thinking. trillion dollar in client assets. Stay invested.
(genuineimpact.substack.com) Fund management How indexing has changed the world of asset management. ft.com) There is overcapacity in the traditional asset management industry. wsj.com) Economy Claudia Sahm, "The Fed is wrestling with the question of how good is ‘too good’ when it comes to economic growth."
I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions.
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