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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

KCP Group ). • Your Career Is Just One-Eighth of Your Life : Five pieces of career advice, shaped by economics, psychology, and a little bit of existential math. ( Citi Global Wealth manages more than $800B in Client Assets, and North America accounts for about half of that business. The Atlantic ). • Source: Pew Research Center.

Math 311
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10 Bad Takes On This Market

The Big Picture

How bad at math do you need to be to think that it’s only 5 stocks driving this market? Debt ceiling = disaster I like Jim Bianco’s comments that the media seems to think it’s a 50/50 proposition, but the implied probability of default according to market prices is 3%. Only 5 stocks driving markets?!

Marketing 289
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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

Low Stakes : The most successful market timers are often those people who do not have actual assets at risk. 24, 2023 _ 1: In particular, why average outperforms over the long run; Sommers credits not making errors (via Charlie Ellis’ “Winning the Loser’s Game”) but the nuance and math are fascinating. It’s utterly laughable.

Marketing 304
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My New ETF: 100% of Upside + 0% of Downside

The Big Picture

At least, if you are a smart investor who does the right things: Set up a financial plan, manage your own behavior, engage in long-term thinking, and avoid reacting to the endless daily noise that markets + media generate. My obvious bias is that my advisory firm charges clients to create financial plans and manage their assets.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Days after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, some media reports suggested remote work was to blame. trillion asset manager of TIAA. trillion asset manager of TIAA. .” JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon declared he’s canceling all his Zoom meetings and expected the office to “look just like it did before.”

Banking 162
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Tuesday links: eighteen months ago

Abnormal Returns

calculatedriskblog.com) A doubling of the mortgage rates radically changes housing math. wsj.com) Asset managers are struggling to get employees back in the office. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media How Liquid Death came to be viewed as an acceptable alcohol substitute. Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.

Math 130
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You can’t handle the truth – Do the Math on the 2023 Bull Market

David Nelson

Nothing sells news better than a hurricane The broadcast and print media will continue to pump this story right up until the time clicks and views start dying off. 5% yields are an attractive alternative to risk assets, especially since it’s been close to 16 years since overnight rates were at current levels.

Math 52