Abnormal Returns

JULY 6, 2023

axios.com) Some banks are holding the line on job cuts. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Seven economics books worth checking out including "For a Dollar and a Dream: State Lotteries in Modern America" by Jonathan D. (platformer.news) Bluesky just raised a new round of capital. techcrunch.com) Just call a tweet a tweet.

Economics 239

Economics Startup Financial Advising Media 239

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). However, there is some concern about banks easing lending standards, and the rapid increase in non-QM loans. Banks generally tightened standards on mortgage loans. I followed up with a brief post on each question.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

sherwood.news) Finance Daniel Davies, "The essence of managing an investment banking franchise is that the biggest driver of success is the capacity to bear pain." jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. wsj.com) AI Alibaba ($BABA) has pivoted to AI. ft.com) Dating apps are leveraging AI.

Media 195

Media Retail Economy Management 195

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. June 2024 1.9 June 2024 1.9

Banking 182

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 182

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2025

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. -- Monday, March 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report.

Sales 162

Sales Economics Manufacturing Government 162

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 10, 2022

On the likely assumption that Italian banks are insolvent, no one in their right mind should have money in Italian banks. Recall the capital controls imposed by the ECB on Greece and Cyprus after bank failures in those countries. Anyone who had money in a bank in Germany had full access to it. No one explains how.

Economics 218

Economics Banking Government Numbers 218

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

And even though numerous signs are pointing to the looming possibility of a more widespread economic downturn – including the reduction of household savings, reduced lending, and the resumption of student loan payments for many borrowers – the job market remains strong. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added

Economics 347

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 347

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. While we may not be in a recession yet, economic momentum has clearly slowed. The technical academic answer is we are not in a recession, but we are clearly slowing down economically.

Economics 322

Economics Banking Retail Economy 322

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 29, 2023

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta based on information collected on or before November 17, 2023." Consumer credit remained fairly healthy, but some banks noted a slight uptick in consumer delinquencies. Manufacturing activity was mixed, and manufacturers' outlooks weakened.

Economics 173

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Sales 173

Calculated Risk

MARCH 4, 2025

At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February, down from 183,000 added in January. At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for February.

Government 147

Government Banking Economics 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards The Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorks Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.

Economics 205

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 205

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Banking contacts reported slight to modest declines in loan demand. Louis based on information collected on or before October 6, 2023.

Economics 162

Economics Retail Manufacturing Banking 162

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” ” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Marketwatch , Kiplingers , and many others.

Advertising 322

Advertising Economics Banking Economy 322

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 3, 2024

At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. . • At 1:45 PM, Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Moderated Discussion, At the New York Times DealBook Summit, New York, N.Y. •

Government 162

Government Banking Economics 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, February 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, February 11th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS.

Retail 162

Retail Sales Financial Services Food 162

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year , followed by a moderately paced recovery.

Economics 305

Economics Banking Communication Economy 305

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2023

FOMC Statement: Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. Inflation remains elevated.

Economics 324

Economics Accounting Banking Planning 324

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration. I suggest you go read the entire piece, here.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 317

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 6, 2022

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America executives also warned of hiring slowdowns due to the uncertain economic outlook.

Banking 260

Banking Economics 260

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, inflation and the labor market on Thursday. -- Monday, November 28th -- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. 1:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market, At the Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W.,

Manufacturing 313

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 313

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2023

Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The A to Z of economics : Economic terms, from “absolute advantage” to “zero-sum game”, explained to you in plain English. ( Wall Street’s Biggest Banks Rescue Teetering First Republic.

Banking 305

Banking Education Economics Management 305

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? This week, we speak withAustan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He’s president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. That is a sign of credibility of the central bank.

Economy 163

Economy Economics Food Banking 163

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 18, 2025

papers.ssrn.com) Why credit card banking is so profitable. papers.ssrn.com) Research If you can identify what economic regime we are in, you can better forecast factor returns. (papers.ssrn.com) How institutional ownership helps home renters, but harms buyers. marginalrevolution.com) How political views skew opinions of the Fed.

Banking 147

Banking Economy Economics Investing 147

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. ” Why? By Jeremy Majerovitz St.

Banking 299

Banking Economy Economics 299

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 23, 2024

Fed's Beige Book On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts since early September , though two Districts reported modest growth. Most Districts reported declining manufacturing activity.

Economics 147

Economics Manufacturing Banking Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 18, 2024

Companies Marc Rubenstein, "PayPal Holdings Inc is not a bank and doesn’t enjoy any of the protections that are afforded to banks." semafor.com) This year's Nobel Prize winners in Economics did not come with universal acclaim. netinterest.co) Why CVS ($CVS) and Walgreen's ($WBA) are struggling.

Assets 278

Assets Financial Advising Communication Banking 278

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is slightly above expectations, and inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up a little later this year). emphasis added Projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 312

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 312

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. I do believe that the economic gains we are going to see in technology justify higher market prices. But that’s a very different discussion than 3% annually for 10 years.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

wsj.com) Revolut now has a UK banking license. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (allstarcharts.com) It's not just the U.S. that is seeing fewer publicly traded companies. wsj.com) In praise of the public pool.

License 289

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 289

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 9, 2023

(humbledollar.com) Finance Private credit is the new bank. nytimes.com) Economics Claudia Goldin has won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics. nytimes.com) Economics Claudia Goldin has won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics. wsj.com) How the Intercontinental Exchange ($ICE) became a big player in the mortgage business.

Financial Advising 287

Financial Advising Media Economics Banking 287

Abnormal Returns

JULY 14, 2024

investmentecosystem.com) Finance Bank OZK ($OZK) is uniquely exposed to the South Florida real estate market. nbcnews.com) Economy An economic soft landing is still on track. dallasfed.org) The economic schedule for the coming week. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Seven reasons you may want to venture away from the market portfolio.

Financial Advising 262

Financial Advising Economics Media Government 262

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). At their September meeting, Fed officials are likely to make fairly straightforward revisions to their economic projections that reflect these recent developments. Economic projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

The Big Picture

JUNE 1, 2023

” (emphasis added) Fascinating research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, pondering the impact of wage gains on inflation. Overall, labor-cost growth is responsible for only about 0.1 percentage point of recent core PCE inflation.” Counterintuitively, they found that rising wages have a minimal impact on inflation.

Banking 318

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 318

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • The Fed’s anti-inflation work is almost done, with an assist from the banking crisis. My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • The Fed’s anti-inflation work is almost done, with an assist from the banking crisis. Irrelevant Investor ) • What’s eating Deutsche Bank? MSNBC ). •

Banking 291

Banking Retirement Economy Economics 291

The Big Picture

AUGUST 5, 2022

Blame History for Making Recession Calls So Hard : The National Bureau of Economic Research has been putting dates on downturns since 1929 — well before there was such a thing as gross domestic product ( Bloomberg ) see also Does This Look Like a Recession To You? Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

License 290

License Economics Banking Economy 290